Frequent spells of heavy snowfall occurred over the Western Himalayas in the month of January. The month of February also commenced with heavy to very heavy snowfall. In fact, one of the strongest Western Disturbances has dumped heavy snow over the hills between February 2nd and 4th.
Although a number of Western Disturbances have approached the Western Himalayas since then, but they were not strong enough to give any significant weather activity. Another active Western Disturbance is expected to approach Jammu Kashmir on February 22nd.
There are chances of moderate to heavy snowfall over parts of Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh between February 22nd and 23rd. Light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells may also occur over Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Ladakh. Rain and snow over Uttarakhand will be isolated to scattered in nature.
Between January 1 and February 18, Uttarakhand has received large excess rain with 78% surplus. Himachal Pradesh is surplus by 41%, followed by Jammu Kashmir which has received 11% surplus. However, Ladakh is surplus by just 3%.
This upcoming rain spell may increase the rain surplus over all the hilly states.