Northeast Monsoon rains have been good so far, over all the five meteorological sub-divisions of the South Peninsula. Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema witnessed rainfall in large excess and Kerala and Coastal Andhra Pradesh are on the better side of normal rainfall. More rainfall is expected over the next three days and possibly a pause, thereafter.
Multiple factors are working in tandem to keep the activity of the northeast monsoon intact. There is a cyclonic circulation over the East-Central Arabian Sea, off the Karnataka & Goa coasts. Another circulation lies over Tamil Nadu and the adjoining Bay region. A north-south trough is running across the interiors of the South Peninsula, from North Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and interiors of Tamil Nadu. Acting together, these features are likely to trigger decent northeast monsoon activity over the next three days.
There is a cyclonic storm brewing over the northern parts of the Bay of Bengal. On intensification, this will pull the monsoon current and the related weather activity to North Bay, Odisha, West Bengal and the neighbourhood. That is when the sub-divisions under the northeast monsoon will have a relative pause in the weather activity. While, the next three days, the region can expect moderate rain and thundershowers, the lean period will last between the 25th and 28th of October.
Fairly widespread, moderate to intense rain and thundershowers are likely over Bengaluru, Mysuru, Mandya, Chitradurga, Hassan, Anantapur, Kurnool, Chittoor, Madurai, Thanjavur, Trichy, Kodaikanal and border areas of Kerala with interiors of Tamil Nadu. The intensity and spread of weather activity will decrease on 25th October and be minimal for the subsequent three days, between 26th and 28th October.
Image Courtesy: CIMSS
