Northeast Monsoon activity is likely to pick up over South India. All the five sub-divisions affected by the monsoon rains will get a fresh spell of seasonal rainfall. The activity is likely to commence, early next week and last till the end of the week. The wet spell will be predominantly seen between 13th and 17th November. One or two days during this period may observe heavy downpours at many places over the southernmost states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
The southwest monsoon had ended on a satisfactory note over the South Peninsula. Even, the spillover in the month of October was reasonably good till halfway through the month. The region had a surplus of over 30% rainfall till mid-October. The onset of the northeast monsoon on 15th October started with a bang but weakened by the last week of October. Even the first few days of November have recorded marginal and scattered rainfall. The surplus of 30% rainfall till mid-October has slowly been consumed and reached the ‘break-even’ point now, with a marginal surplus of only 2%. With the expected wet spell, this figure is likely to build up over the next 10 days.
There is a cyclonic circulation marked over the Southwest Bay of Bengal (BoB). A north-south trough is extending from the Gulf of Mannar to East-Central BoB, across this circulation. The circulation will move westward slowly and reach Sri Lanka, the Gulf of Mannar and Coastal Tamil Nadu by 12th November. It may even become a low-pressure area during this period. This will trigger fairly widespread rain and thundershowers over most sub-divisions of South India, during next week.
Light to moderate rainfall is likely today, over Tamil Nadu and Kerala. For the subsequent three days, till 12th Nov, the weather activity will dominantly prevail over the sea region and very little over the land. However, monsoon activity will revive and increase in spread and intensity from 13th Nov onwards and lash most parts till the end of the week. During this, some places of interior Tamil Nadu and Kerala will receive heavy rainfall on 14th and 15th November. The bursts of monsoon may even extend to Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The weather system will vacate the southern parts and move to the Arabian Sea at the start of the third week of November, keeping a safe distance from the coast. Accordingly, the weather conditions are likely to improve over the region during that period.