Active Monsoon Along Indo-Gangetic Plains, Uttar Pradesh-Bihar To Get Heavy Rains

Monsoon has covered the entire country, a little before time. The seasonal monsoon trough is well established. This feature is the main trigger for rainfall over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Currently, the trough is lying north of its normal position at surface and also in the lower layers of atmosphere. In its east-west stretch, it is passing through Lucknow, Gorakhpur, Ballia, Darbhanga, Purnia and further on to the northeastern parts. Under its influence, active to vigorous monsoon conditions are likely along the foothills of Nepal, covering large parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

An active cyclonic circulation over North & Central Pakistan and adjoining Punjab region is keeping the trough slightly north of its normal position. Also, there are small scale closed and compact circulations embedded in the trough along its route over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Situation is quite conducive for heavy rainfall over the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, more so, along the foothills for the next 3 days, between 04^th and 06^thJuly with a peak rainfall on 05^th July. As is the normal pattern, it does not rain intensely, all along the trough and invariably has some hot spots, patchy in nature getting deluged.

Heavy rainfall belt will extend from Punjab, Haryana and parts of Rajasthan and spread over to large parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Foothills will be more vulnerable than the rest. Few locations at risk in Uttar Pradesh  will include Moradabad, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur, Shahjahanpur, Bahraich, Lucknow, Gonda, Ayodhya, Gorakhpur and Ballia. Further east, the northern half of Bihar will have severe activity than the rest of region. Heavy and flooding rainfall is likely over Champaran, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Muzaffarpur, Supaul, Araria, Madhepura, Forbsganj, Kishanganj, Purnia and Darbhanga. Moderate and sharp showers will be witnessed over other parts of the state, as well. As a cyclonic circulation emerges over Bay of Bengal around 07^thJuly, the rains may ease out slightly between 07^th and 08^thJuly. These are likely to pick up once again from 09^thJuly onward and last till the weekend.