The onset of Monsoon has got no direct bearing on its overall performance for the season. However, for the state of Kerala, early or delayed arrival does have an impact especially during the month of June. The initial days of rains do improve rainfall values for the state. This time Monsoon 2019 reached on June 8 and was a week late. For the first week of June, the deficiency stood at 60%.
The bigger the deficiency, the recovery gets more difficult to achieve. By the second week, the deficiency now stands at 30%. June 10 and June 11 were the rainiest days for the state and these two dates are largely responsible for covering the deficit. On June 10 and June 11, Kerala recorded 38.8 mm and 33.04 mm of rain, respectively.
The last three days have been really poor for the state in terms of rain and the deficiency is all set to mount again during the remaining days of June. Only moderate to light rains are expected during this period. There is no weather system as such, a weak system in the form of a Low-Pressure Area will develop in the Bay of Bengal around June 21. This weak system will not be of much help in driving the current and the rains won’t get intensified as expected. Also, this system will not be able to generate Southwesterlies which are vital in giving decent rains in Kerala. Thus, light to moderate rain will be observed while heavy rain is a possibility only if the Low-Pressure Area in the Bay of Bengal intensifies.
Kerala is one of the rainiest pockets during the Monsoon season and June is the rainiest month for the state with 650 mm of rain. Kerala is one state wherein the averages are very high.
If we look at the last four years, then rainfall has remained generally within the normal range maintaining the criteria of +/-19% and it was somewhere around +/-15% for the month of June. The only exception was the year 2015 when the countrywide deficiency was 42% and in Kerala alone, the deficit stood at 30%. This was a drought year for the country.
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