The intensity of Western disturbance remained subdued during this winter season. Few intense Western Disturbances have approached Western Himalayas during the month of January. November and December 2022 have not seen any significant weather activity over the hills of the Western Himalayas due to lack of Western Disturbances. November and December were relatively warmer than normal due to dry weather conditions.
Successive Western Disturbances are expected to approach during the month of February but they will not be strong enough to give enough rain and snowfall over the hills. However, on the other hand, they will block the flow of Northerly cold winds over Northwest and Central parts of the country.
Isolated to scattered rain and snow is possible over Hills between February 20 and 20nd. Another Western Disturbance will reach Jammu and Kashmir around February 26 and rain and snow activities are possible between February 26 and March 1 over Western Himalayas.
An induced cyclonic circulation made develop over northern plains around February 26 and 27. Humid winds from Arabian Sea as well as from Bay of Bengal will feed moisture over the Plains of North India leading to isolated rain and thunderstorm activities.
Rain average will remain low over Western Himalayas and northwest India in the month of February.