A fresh low pressure area has formed over the Central Bay of Bengal and is likely to become well marked shortly. The weather system is expected to persist over the Bay of Bengal for the next 3 days with gradual intensification and shift close to the coastline off North Odisha and West Bengal. It is likely to become a depression on the 21st October and further a deep depression on 22nd October.
Unlike the previous system which travelled across Telangana and Maharashtra to emerge in the Arabian Sea as a depression, this one is not likely to travel far over land and will possibly recurve from Odisha and West Bengal towards Bangladesh and Assam. As a deep depression on 22nd October, the system will position very close to the West Bengal – Bangladesh coast and is likely to recurve across Bangladesh towards Assam and Meghalaya albeit with a weakening note.
The coastal parts of North Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal will experience squally weather accompanied with heavy rain and thundershower on 21st and 22nd October. This powerful system is likely to veer off towards Bangladesh and Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Manipur on 23rd and 24th October. Very heavy rainfall is expected over these parts between 23rd and 25th October.
The recurving track of this system will pave way for resumption of monsoon withdrawal from more parts. The peripherals of the system will have light to moderate rainfall over parts of Bihar and Jharkhand between 22nd and 24th October. Most parts of North Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh will be spared from any significant weather activity. Gangetic West Bengal and Northeast India need to prepare to face fierce weather conditions and adopt all precautions to safeguard lives and assets.