Skymet had predicted the monsoon to be at 94% (error margin of +/-4%) on April 15 and downgraded the monsoon outlook to 91% (error margin of +/-4%) on July 4, 2014.
Monsoon 2014 has ended in a mild meteorological drought. In particular, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, east & west Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalseema, Marathwada and NMMT (Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura) finished the season with deficit (lower than normal by 20% or more) rainfall. Only Odisha, south interior Karnataka, and Jammu & Kashmir ended up with a positive departure of rainfall.
Few other highlights of this monsoon were:
- Floods affected Jammu & Kashmir, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Gujarat.
- Heat wave affected Northwest India (Gwalior, Ganganagar, Agra, Bikaner); dry and hot weather in Andhra Pradesh during June. Record high temperatures in Delhi.
- Landslides due to heavy rain at a few places in Maharashtra, Assam, Jammu & Kashmir, and Uttarakhand.
- Cyclonic storm Nanauk developed in the Arabian Sea during monsoon onset, spared Indian coasts.
In terms of monthly distribution, the monsoon looked like this:
June – 57% of LPA
July – 90% of LPA
August – 91% of LPA
September – 111% of LPA
Impact on Agriculture
- Total Area under Kharif crop in 2014 remains low at 101.92 million hectares against 104.47 million hectares in Kharif 2013 due to poor monsoon.
- Acreage under paddy and cotton is higher than last year but production is expected to be lower this year.
- Acreage under other crops is lower than last year.
- Erratic rainfall and dry spells in several parts of the country will also impact productivity.
- These are preliminary estimates and are expected to undergo an upward revision due to normal rainfall in the month of September.
- As per First Advance Estimates for 2014-15, total production of Kharif food grains is estimated at 120.27 million tonnes, lower than last Kharif’s 129.24 by 8.97 million tonnes.
- Oilseed production will also be lower than last Kharif’s 22.41 million tonnes by 2.75 at 19.66 million tonnes.
A summary table of acreage, production and difference from last year is given as under:
| Kharif Acreage (million hectares) | |||
| Crop | 2013 | 2014 | % Difference |
| Paddy | 37.42 | 37.48 | 0.2% |
| Pulses | 10.81 | 10.1 | -6.6% |
| Coarse Cereals | 19.6 | 18.23 | -7.0% |
| Oilseeds | 19.32 | 17.75 | -8.1% |
| Sugarcane | 5.03 | 4.87 | -3.2% |
| Cotton | 11.43 | 12.65 | 10.7% |
| Total Kharif Crops | 104.47 | 101.92 | -2.4% |
| Production Estimates (million tonnes) | |||
| Crop | 2013 | 2014 | % Difference |
| Paddy | 91.69 | 88.08 | -3.9% |
| Pulses | 6.02 | 5.2 | -13.6% |
| Coarse Cereals | 31.53 | 27.05 | -14.2% |
| Oilseeds | 22.4 | 19.66 | -12.2% |
| Sugarcane | 350.02 | 342.79 | -2.1% |
| Cotton** | 36.59 | 34.62 | -5.4% |
| Total Food Grains | 129.24 | 120.27 | -6.9 |
| **million bales of 170 Kg each | |||
| 2013: 4th Advance estimates | |||
| 2014: 1st Advance Estimates | |||
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