Skymet, India’s leading weather analytics firm has released the end of season report for monsoon 2014. The monsoon ended at 88% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm for the four-month period from June to September.
Skymet had predicted the monsoon to be at 94% (error margin of +/-4%) on April 15 and downgraded the monsoon outlook to 91% (error margin of +/-4%) on July 4, 2014.
Monsoon 2014 has ended in a mild meteorological drought. In particular, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, east & west Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalseema, Marathwada and NMMT (Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura) finished the season with deficit (lower than normal by 20% or more) rainfall. Only Odisha, south interior Karnataka, and Jammu & Kashmir ended up with a positive departure of rainfall.
Few other highlights of this monsoon were:
- Floods affected Jammu & Kashmir, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Gujarat.
- Heat wave affected Northwest India (Gwalior, Ganganagar, Agra, Bikaner); dry and hot weather in Andhra Pradesh during June. Record high temperatures in Delhi.
- Landslides due to heavy rain at a few places in Maharashtra, Assam, Jammu & Kashmir, and Uttarakhand.
- Cyclonic storm Nanauk developed in the Arabian Sea during monsoon onset, spared Indian coasts.
In terms of monthly distribution, the monsoon looked like this:
June – 57% of LPA
July – 90% of LPA
August – 91% of LPA
September – 111% of LPA
Impact on Agriculture
- Total Area under Kharif crop in 2014 remains low at 101.92 million hectares against 104.47 million hectares in Kharif 2013 due to poor monsoon.
- Acreage under paddy and cotton is higher than last year but production is expected to be lower this year.
- Acreage under other crops is lower than last year.
- Erratic rainfall and dry spells in several parts of the country will also impact productivity.
- These are preliminary estimates and are expected to undergo an upward revision due to normal rainfall in the month of September.
- As per First Advance Estimates for 2014-15, total production of Kharif food grains is estimated at 120.27 million tonnes, lower than last Kharif’s 129.24 by 8.97 million tonnes.
- Oilseed production will also be lower than last Kharif’s 22.41 million tonnes by 2.75 at 19.66 million tonnes.
A summary table of acreage, production and difference from last year is given as under:
|
Kharif Acreage (million hectares) |
|||
|
Crop |
2013 |
2014 |
% Difference |
|
Paddy |
37.42 |
37.48 |
0.2% |
|
Pulses |
10.81 |
10.1 |
-6.6% |
|
Coarse Cereals |
19.6 |
18.23 |
-7.0% |
|
Oilseeds |
19.32 |
17.75 |
-8.1% |
|
Sugarcane |
5.03 |
4.87 |
-3.2% |
|
Cotton |
11.43 |
12.65 |
10.7% |
|
Total Kharif Crops |
104.47 |
101.92 |
-2.4% |
|
Production Estimates (million tonnes) |
|||
|
Crop |
2013 |
2014 |
% Difference |
|
Paddy |
91.69 |
88.08 |
-3.9% |
|
Pulses |
6.02 |
5.2 |
-13.6% |
|
Coarse Cereals |
31.53 |
27.05 |
-14.2% |
|
Oilseeds |
22.4 |
19.66 |
-12.2% |
|
Sugarcane |
350.02 |
342.79 |
-2.1% |
|
Cotton** |
36.59 |
34.62 |
-5.4% |
|
Total Food Grains |
129.24 |
120.27 |
-6.9 |
| **million bales of 170 Kg each | |||
| 2013: 4th Advance estimates | |||
| 2014: 1st Advance Estimates | |||
To download our analysis on Monsoon 2014 Click Here
