In terms of geographical risk, Skymet suggests that peninsular India will be at less risk through June, July, August and September (JJAS). There seems to be weakness in majority subdivisions in Northwest India (Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana) and West-Central India (East MP, West MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharshtra, Konkan & Goa, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana) during the whole season. August is expected to be the best month among the four, although negative. It appears that onset may be staggered.
According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, “This weakness in Monsoon could possibly be attributed to an evolving ENSO”. The ENSO is a phenomenon wherein the Central and East Pacific ocean warms (El Niño) or cools (La Niña), in turn affecting the Monsoon.
El Niño is evolving as of now, but is expected to get arrested. There is only a 30% chance of this phenomenon getting stronger. According to Mr. Singh, “If this El Niñowas amplifying, then there would be a stronger chance of drought, like in 2009. This does not seem to be the case at this point in time.”
There is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during monsoon.
According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:
- 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
- 1% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% OF LPA)
- 34% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
- 40% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
- 25% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June – 90% of LPA (LPA = 174 mm)
- 68% chance of normal
- 7% chance of excess
- 25% chance of deficit
July – 94% of LPA (LPA = 285 mm)
- 59% chance of normal
- 18% chance of excess
- 23% chance of deficit
August – 98% of LPA (LPA = 253 mm)
- 70% chance of normal
- 14% chance of excess
- 16% chance of deficit
September – 90% of LPA (LPA = 184 mm)
- 59% chance of normal
- 12% chance of excess
- 29% chance of deficit
To download our presentation on Monsoon Foreshadow for 2014 click here.
The speakers at our Monsoon Foreshadow 2014 event, held on 15 April:
Jatin Singh - CEO and Founder, Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.
Retd. AVM G.P. Sharma - Vice President, Meteorology, Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.
D.R. Sikka - Chairman of the Monsoon Mission (Ex-director, Indian Institute of Tropical Metereology)