North India has witnessed a prolonged dry spell and is yet to commence with typical winter rains. January and February are the two prominent rainy months for the north. The transition month of March also contributes significantly to the fertile fields bearing Rabi crops. The absence of snow in the mountains and scanty rains over the plains leave an anxious moment for the farmers and inventory managers.
Though month of December does not hold high stakes but absolute parched conditions, as witnessed this season, drain out reserves of previous storage of the water bodies. The first fortnight of January has completely failed the winter rains. There is no snowfall across the mountains of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand. States of Punjab, Haryana, West Rajasthan, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh have yet to receive the first few drops of winter showers. Any large deficiency incurred till January finds it difficult to recover in the remaining part of the season. Damage becomes irreparable to the crops and reflects poorly on the yield.
Prospects look grim for any decent rains over the next 10 days or so. It means the dry spell will stretch further towards fag end of January. There is a distant hope of an active western disturbance arriving over the hills around Republic Day. This system is likely to dump some snow across the low and mid reaches of the mountains of North India. There is no firm promise of winter showers over the plains, simultaneously. Although there is a faint indication of an induced circulation accompanying this western disturbance. Such a feature does manifest as winter showers for the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh. A fresh look needs to be taken over the developing situation around the weekend.
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