Close on the heels of low pressure/depression in the Arabian Sea, another low-pressure area is likely to come up on the other side of the coast. As a precursor, a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the South Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the next 24 hours. Under favourable sea conditions, it is expected to manifest as a low-pressure area, the very next day, on 13th October. A rapid intensification is quite likely in the subsequent 48 hours.
As the weather system is coming up over the central parts of South BoB, not very far from the equator, it may not gain much latitude. Though it is a little premature to say, but the system may remain confined to the southern half of the eastern coastline. It also means that Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will be the preferred areas to absorb the impact of the system.
Model skills and precision drop sharply after a lead time of 4 days or so. A constant revision will be needed to observe and track this system. Under favourable conditions, these weather systems do not give long notice of intensification. Keeping in view the potential risk associated with such disturbances, a high level of preparedness and that too, at short notice, will be ideal to secure safety.
As the Northeast Monsoon is nearing over South India, the states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala need to remain in action mode, all through the season. The weather system in the Arabian Sea is already lashing parts of the coastline, all along the Western Ghats. There is yet another system as a cyclonic circulation over the Southwest BoB, off the Tamil Nadu coast. To complete the hat trick, there are enough indications of the third system likely to brew over South BoB, anytime soon. South Peninsula will have to remain on its toes, for intense weather activity, at least, till mid-week next.