New Delhi, Tuesday, 17 July, After Pre-monsoon showers, temperature in northwest India had come down a bit, but scarcity of rain in the last few days has once again increased the mercury by two to four degree Celsius in the region.

Delhi witnessing five degrees above the normal temperature

There has been constant rise in temperature in the capital for the last few days with Tuesday recording 39 degree Celsius. It is almost five degree Celsius above the normal temperature of 33.7 degrees. Just after declaration of arrival of the monsoon, temperature was around 35 degrees but it has risen to 39 degrees in just few days.

There have been some isolated Thunder storm/showers in the region, but Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan are still three days away from moderate or heavy rain. So the trend of rise in temperature is likely to continue in this region during the next two to three days.

Rain likely after seventy-two hours

A cyclonic circulation developing in northwest Bay of Bengal is likely to increase rain in central India and a spill over of moisture laden southeasterly winds may reach northwest plains to give rain after seventy two hours.

New Delhi, Monday 16 July, People in northwest India including Delhi will continue to face hot conditions during the week as the temperatures soar. Rain is likely to diminish in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan during the next four to five days as the break of the monsoon like situation set to prevail during this period. Isolated thunder storm activity is also likely to develop over these places. Dry weather is likely to continue over west Rajasthan and Kutch of Gujarat.

The Northern Limit of Monsoon line (NLM) is currently lies in the foothills of Himachal Pradesh. Its eastern extension in northeastern states is likely to turn downward into northwest Bay of Bengal where it might build up into a circulation to increase rainfall afterward.

However, rain with moderate intensity is likely to continue over east Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim as moisture-laden southeasterly winds are colliding into the hills and helping precipitation. Heavy rain is also likely at a few places in these states in the next twenty four hours.

Off shore trough Strengthen along the west coast

Along the west coast, the off shore trough extended from Konkan to Kerala is rejuvenating and thus attracting more showers in coastal areas of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra.

Mumbai is likely to see an increase in rainfall activity after twenty four to forty eight hours.

Troughs are places where winds from opposing directions meet (or winds turn) and atmospheric pressure is low while the turbulence caused by such interaction (or turning) leads to rain, thundershowers and storms. Southwesterly winds are turning into northwesterly along this trough.

In central Peninsula, Orissa, Chhattisgarh along with Vidarbha and adjoining region are expected to get moderate rainfall in the next twenty four hours.

In southern Peninsula, seasonal light showers are expected over interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Isolated moderate showers are expected in east coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. A few places in Tamil Nadu including capital Chennai will receive light seasonal drizzles in the next twenty four hours.

New Delhi, Saturday  July 14, The shift of the axis of monsoon continues towards Himalayan foothills and indicates heavy rainfall in east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and sub-Himalayan West Bengal in the next twenty four hours. In the next twenty four to forty eight hours, heavy rain in Tarai region of Himalayas may bring more water to deteriorate flood like situation in Biha

The axis of monsoon trough passes through Ferozpur, Meerut , Hardoi, Sultanpur, Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur , Berhampur and thence southeastwards to Northeast Bay of Bengal.

Most parts of northwest India are likely to remain under the grip of westerly winds. A feeble Western Disturbance lies over north Pakistan . As the axis of monsoon shifts towards foothills, there is chance of decrease in strength of rain over northwest plains in Punjab Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan. The hilly areas of Uttar Pradesh are likely to get rains in the next twenty four hours. West Rajasthan where monsoon reached before the schedule of 15 July, is expected to be dry in the next twenty four hours.

Along the west coast monsoon seasonal trough remains feeble and extends from Konkan coast to Kerala coast. Rains along the west coast are likely to be subdued and moderate. For the rest of parts of the region, light showers are expected.

A cyclonic circulation has formed over the central India over Vidarbha and adjoining areas. This will bring moderate rain in Vidarbha and adjoining areas including Telegana in the next twenty four hours. Pockets of Andhra Pradesh coast are likely to get moderate rains too.

Due to the temporary confinement of the moisture laden southeasterly winds along the foothills of Himalayas, north Assam and Arunachal would experience moderate to heavy rainfall. Flood situation in Assam may aggravate due to heavy downpours at a few places. Light to moderate rain is likely to continue over the rest of the parts of northeast India.

New Delhi, Friday July 13 The axis of monsoon trough is shifting towards Himalayan foothills and the break of the monsoon like conditions are anticipated to prevail over northwest India . With this shift of monsoon trough rains over Haryana, Delhi , Rajasthan, Gujarat and west M.P, are likely to decrease during next four to five days. Marginal rise in temperatures are also possible over North West plains.

New Delhi, Thursday, 12 July, After playing hide and seek initially months, monsoon is showing some sign of improvement as rains continue over entire country. Light to moderate rainfall over entire country is likely to continue in the next twenty four hours.

Eastern part of India specially sub Himalayan region and northeastern states are likely to receive heavy showers in the next twenty four hours. While northwest Rajasthan and adjacent region are also heading for increased rainfall during next 24 hours.

The Monsoon access trough now extends from northwest Rajasthan to northeastern states and seen as a reason for rains in Rajasthan, east UP, Bihar, sub Himalayan west Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. While moderate rain in these areas is likely to continue, there is chance of heavy downpours in areas of Sikkim, sub Himalayan west Bengal, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

This trough is likely to shift towards Himalayan foothills and rains in Rajasthan Gujarat north Madhya Pradesh west Uttar Pradesh are predicted to be lessen after 2 to 3 days.

Rain in Delhi is likely to continue. Passing light drizzles are expected in Delhi in the next twenty four hours due to oscillation of this trough.

Troughs are places where winds from opposing directions meet (or winds turn) and atmospheric pressure is low while the turbulence caused by such interaction (or turning) leads to rain, thundershowers and storms.

Along the west coast, the seasonal trough from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast remains intact. Mumbai has received more than 70mm of rain in the last twenty four hours, but rain intensity is expected to decrease in the next 24 hours and moderate rain is predicted over here and areas of western coast as well.

Monsoon activity is likely to continue over peninsular India. Light rains in Maharashtra, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa are anticipated to go on. Moderate to light rain is likely to continue in Tamil Nadu too.

In rest of India rain is likely to continue because of prevalent monsoon conditions as clouds are being witness all over India now.

Delhi, Wednesday, July 11 The southwest monsoon this year though entered a week late at the southern doorsteps of Kerala, has covered the entire country before its usual date of July 15. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today announced the arrival of monsoon over west Rajasthan riding on rainfall ensuing from the monsoon trough passing through Bikaner.

West Rajasthan, the last frontier of the nation to be covered by the monsoon winds usually receives monsoon showers on July 15, marking the arrival well four days before schedule.

As of today, the monsoon is trailing by 23% of normal over the country as whole while the dearth is reported majorly from northwest and central India.

The axis of monsoon trough, essentially intensified moisture laden monsoon winds are extending from Bikaner, Gwalior, Fatehpur, Muzaffarpur and then passing on to northeast India.  The weather formation is also passing through the low pressure area persisting over east Rajasthan.

The combined prowess of the monsoon trough and the low pressure would dispense rainfall over east Rajasthan, Delhi, parts of Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next twenty four hours.

Troughs are places where winds from opposing directions meet (or winds turn) and atmospheric pressure is low while the turbulence caused by such interaction (or turning) leads to rain, thundershowers and storms.

This axis of monsoon trough is expected to oscillate north towards the Himalayan foothills in the next couple of days. Heavy rains are possible in this region while moderate rain over adjoining Uttar Pradesh during this period. Central Uttar Pradesh is also likely to be under the ambit of rainfall as the trough moves up massing through the region.

Rainfall activity would decrease along the west coast after twenty four hours and also over Gujarat. Significant showers are also ruled out over southern parts of the country.

Another north- south trough is prevailing from sub-Himalayan West Bengal to north Bay of Bengal and would be instrumental in increasing rainfall over northeast India in the next forty-eight hours. Sikkim and sub Himalayan West Bengal may receive moderate to isolated heavy rainfall during this period.

Delhi, Tuesday, July 10 The monsoon is currently active over west Madhya Pradesh, adjoining Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. A well-marked low pressure has also formed over northwest Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan to support the monsoon further in these parts.

The weather system will move in a northeast direction and dispense rains over east Rajasthan during the next twenty four hours. The active rain belt will shift towards west central Uttar Pradesh gradually after that.

A trough is presently extending from northwest Rajasthan to east central Bay of Bengal across north Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. Rainfall is expected along this area. But this trough is likely to shift north and so will the rainfall.

Troughs are places where winds from opposing directions meet (or winds turn) and atmospheric pressure is low while the turbulence caused by such interaction (or turning) leads to rain, thundershowers and storms.

The trough in question though is a yearly phenomenon and called the axis of monsoon trough. Its position destines rainfall across the northern plains and central peninsula.

This axis of monsoon trough is expected to oscillate north towards the Himalayan foothills in the next couple of days. Heavy rains are possible in this region while moderate rain over adjoining Uttar Pradesh during this period. Central Uttar Pradesh is also likely to be under the ambit of rainfall as the trough moves up massing through the region.

A cyclonic circulation (genesis of a low pressure) is seen over Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh, likely to intensify, leading to enhanced rain activity over east India.

The off shore trough on the west coast extends from coastal Gujarat to Kerala and will be responsible for sustained rains here.

West Rajasthan will be devoid of rain but Tamil Nadu might get scattered rain/thunder showers during the next two days. A trough running along the east coast from Andhra Pradesh to south Tamil Nadu would facilitate the precipitation.

New Delhi. Monday, 9 July, Northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan are heading for heavy rains. Rainfall activity is likely to continue in Orissa and Chhattisgarh. Delhi may see passing showers. Along the west coast, there is a bit reduction in the intensity of rain. While conglomeration of southeasterly winds along the foothills of Himalaya also indicates break of the monsoon is not far away.

Weather Alert for MP and adjoining Rajasthan

Bhopal and Indore in Madhya Pradesh and Kota in Rajasthan are heading for increased rainfall activities in the next twenty four hours as a cyclonic circulation over Madhya Pradesh and Orissa is shifting base to this region.

In the next twenty four hours, heavy rains are likely in the areas of west Madhya Pradesh and adjacent Rajasthan. Light to moderate rains have been predicted in east Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat, due to the surge over MP and Orissa.

Isolated heavy rainfall is predicted over many places including capital Bhopal and commercial capital Indore.

Reduced rainfall along the west coast

A trough along the coast extended from Kerala to Gujarat is weak and rainfall intensity has reduced due to this weakness. Moderate rainfall is expected over the areas of west coast, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Konkan, Goa and Kerala.

Moderate rains in the east

Moderate rains are predicted for Orissa and Chhattisgarh. The east part of the country would receive rains in the next 24 hours as a cyclonic circulation currently exists over Orissa and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal.

As far as northwest India specially Punjab, Haryana and Delhi are concerned, light passing showers are anticipated for these areas as a trough close to south of Delhi is extended up to northeast Madhya Pradesh.

Dry weather prevails over west Rajasthan. Thundery build up is likely over the area in the next twenty four hours.

In the rest of India including the Peninsular region would continue to receive light showers during next twenty four hours.

Break of the monsoon on cards

The southeasterly moisture laden winds have started to conglomerate along the Himalayan foothills and may prompt break of the monsoon in coming days.

This is a seasonal Phenomenon in which southeasterly winds start blowing in Himalayan foothills while westerly just below it.