Skymet weather

Delayed rain to bring down milled rice output but to benefit Rabi crops

New Delhi, Monday, September 10, Due to the late onset of monsoon, the milled rice production is expected to come down by 6% to 98.5 million tonnes during the current Kharif season. The delay in monsoon has led to rains being deficit in key northern and southern growing regions. However, the late rain has increased the water levels in important reservoirs and the moisture in the soil to benefit Rabi crops.

With the pick-up in monsoon, the sowing patterns have improved drastically during the month of August. The areas sown under coarse cereals were deficient by 22 % last month declined to 15% and the area sown under pulses, which were deficient by 20% declined by 4%. However, the delay in the onset of monsoon impacted initial sowing patterns across crops though gradual pick-up in rains accelerated sowing activities and helped to partially eradicate the drop in the crop acreages.

The 84 reservoirs in different parts of the country as of August 30 stood at 65 % of the shortage capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). The present storage in nearly 83% of the storage last year and 102% of the average of last ten years. Out of the 84 reservoirs. 55 reported to be more than 80% of the normal storage and 29 reported to be 80% or below of normal storage.

However, Kharif yields are expected to be impacted due to delay in sowing, uneven distribution of rainfall and lower agricultural input consumption though the situation has improved and Rabi planting is unlikely to be impacted due to comfortable reservoirs levels.

Rain likely to increase over east, central India and West coast; showers to decrease over western India

New Delhi, Monday, September 10, Showers are likely to increase over the east and the central India in Orissa, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Telangana during the next twenty four hours. The West coast would also see an increase in the rainfall activities during this period but rain would decrease over the western border region in west Rajasthan, west Punjab and western areas of Jammu and Kashmir.

Showers are increasing over the coastal and central areas in the east as the cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Orissa and West Bengal has moved into the land and now lies over Orissa and adjoining areas. Under the aegis of the system, rain would increase over the southwest region of this cyclonic circulation. South Orissa, south Chhattisgarh, south Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Telangana would see rain at many places with heavy at one or two places during the next twenty four hours.

The cyclonic circulation is moving in a west-north-west direction and is expected to be stationed again over west Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and Gujarat region during the next twenty four to forty eight hours. This would bring a brief period of rain over these regions.

The low pressure area over Kutch and adjoining southeast Pakistan now lies over southeast Pakistan and adjoining southwest Rajasthan. Rains are reducing over these areas as the system is likely to weaken during the next twenty four hours. Light rain would continue over these places for the next twelve hours after that, they would get subdued. The region could again pick up the rain intensity as the westward moving cyclonic circulation over Orissa and adjoining areas might reach up to these areas during the next forty eight to seventy two hours.

Along the West coast, the offshore trough is again picking up on the intensity. This would increase the intensity of the rain during the next twenty four to forty eight hours. Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala would see moderate rain with one two places would also experience a heavy fall during this period. The trough is extending from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast. Monsoon trough is essentially a region of intensified monsoon winds.

However, rain would be subdued in the Southern Peninsula over south interior Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu during the next twenty four hours as the moist southwesterly winds are shedding most of its moisture along the west coast.

In the northwestern plains, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh would receive light rain due to the presence of moisture in the air which will be condensed due to the rise in temperatures. Showers would be light over the western Himalayan region in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The eastern Himalayan region in Assam and northeastern states would also receive light rain as weather systems are away from these places.

5.7 magnitude Earthquake hits southwest China

New Delhi, Friday, September 7, An earthquake measuring 5.7 on the Richter scale jolted southwestern provinces of Yunnan and Guizhou provinces at 11:19 am on Friday. The epicenter was just about 15 km from Yiliang's county seat in Yunnan province.

At least 50 people are reported to be dead and 150 others injured as of 3:50 p.m. The lives of over 700,000 people have been disrupted by the earthquake in Yiliang and Daguan counties as well as Zhaoyang district. More than 100,000 people have been evacuated from Zhaotong. More than 20,000 houses were damaged or had collapsed in the quake.

The quake-prone area had been stricken by 16 aftershocks, with the strongest one measuring at magnitude-5.6, at 1:00 p.m. So far, no casualties have been reported in Guizhou Province, but the quake has also damaged or even toppled homes in Weining county in the province.

Southwest China is an earthquake prone region. Sichuan and parts of neighbouring Shaanxi and Gansu provinces were rocked by an 8.0-magnitude quake, killing tens of thousands and flattening swaths of the province in May 2008.

Continuous rain hampers apple harvesting

New Delhi, Friday, September 7. The extended season of rain over upper Kullu has made it difficult for the farmers to harvest apples. Apple harvesting has just started in upper Kullu but due to continuous rain it has become hard to pluck apple.

Apples have ripened and need harvesting but growers find it hard to spend enough time in the orchards as the sky remains overcast and it rains every day. The growers have to pay workers even if they remain idle as rain does not give time to pluck apples. The season of Apple is over in the lower belt of Kullu while the season would last till the end of this month. The absence of sunlight has made apple plants prone to premature falling of leaves, scab and fungal diseases.

Rain affects apple harvesting in many ways as if the rains continued further; it might affect the colour of the standing crop of apple. The growers also do not want to take the risk of plucking, grading and transportation of apple in the wake of rainfall. Fruit plucked during rains hardly fetched better prices in the fruit market as fruits usually develop black spots during rains. Expert believes that plucking during rains is not advisable as it is harmful for the crop.

Delayed rain to hit raw Jute output

New Delhi, Friday, September 7, Rain deficiency in the first half of the monsoon season over the major growing region is likely to bring down the total production of raw Jute in the country. The drop in production is mainly due to a lower acreage as the sowing of the crop has been less by about ten per cent this year as compared to the last year.

The weather conditions in north Bengal and Assam have been favourable for jute cultivation, but the delayed rains in south Bengal have affected the production. The south West Bengal districts accounts for 70 per cent in terms of area and 80 per cent in terms of production. Nearly four lakh hectares of land under jute cultivation lies in the south Bengal districts of Murshidabad and Nadia. West Bengal accounts for almost 67 per cent of the total area under cultivation at 6 lakh hectares.

Sowing during 2012-13 season has been less by 25 per cent in Bihar and by 10-15 percent in certain parts of Assam. Over the last few years, the area under jute cultivation has remained constant at about 9 lakh hectares.

Heavy rain likely over Gujarat; showers to increase over J & K, Punjab

New Delhi, Friday, September 7, Heavy to very heavy rain is expected at one or two places over the entire Gujarat including Saurashtra and Kutch during the next twenty four hours. Rain would reduce over west Madhya Pradesh and central peninsular region during this period. Rain surge is expected over Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab during the next twenty four to forty eight hours.

Showers are expected at most places over Gujarat and southeast and north Rajasthan during the next twenty four to forty eight hours as the low pressure area has moved upward in a northwest direction and now lies over Gujarat and adjoining areas of south Rajasthan. Heavy to very heavy showers are predicted at one or two places over these areas during the next twenty four hours.

The weather system is expected to move further in the northwest direction and would be placed over northwest Rajasthan and adjoining areas of Pakistan during the next twenty four to forty eight hours. This system and the cyclonic circulation persisting over coastal Gujarat and the adjacent Arabian Sea would interact with the passing Western Disturbances over north Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir in India. This would increase intensity of the rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab especially in western Punjab region during this period.

In the eastern region, rains are increasing over east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa. Many places over these areas would receive rain as a cyclonic circulation lies over West Bengal and adjoining the Bay of Bengal. The presence of the monsoon trough over these areas would also increase the possibilities of the rain in these areas.

The monsoon trough is passing through Barmer, Nimach, Sagar, Ambikapur, Ranchi, Digha and thence southeastwards to the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon trough is essentially a region of intensified monsoon winds.

The rain over the northeastern states would remain light as the most of the moisture in the southeasterly winds is flowing in a northwest direction towards inland. The incursion of the moist southeasterly winds is reaching up to Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. This would translate into light rain over these areas. The main factor would be the speed of the southeasterly winds which if slowdown at a place, it would experience increased rainfall.

Along the west coast Konkan, Goa and Kerala would continue to receive moderate rain At a few places rains could be heavy to very heavy as the offshore trough is active and extending from the Gujarat coast to Kerala coast. In the Southern Peninsula, rains are expected at one or two places over north Tamil Nadu as the westerly winds from the Arabian Sea are making a tilt while reaching the northern coastal areas of the state.

Recent rain revives lake Pushkar

New Delhi, Thursday, September 6, The good rains during the last few days have revived the Pushkar lake and it is now brimming with life as for the first time in many years the lake is filled with water. The water is also overflowing to the surrounding ghats. The water level in the lake is 19 feet at the moment and the ghats are making a spectacular sight.

Apart from the tourists, even the locals are gathering at the lake as most have never seen the lake like it is now. The locals in particular are delighted to see the lake water gushing onto the ghat steps. After heavy rain in the region in the past three days, the water is flowing from nearby Savitri and Nag hills towards the lake.

The town itself and the surrounding hills have also become green, adding to the rain impact. The locals are already anticipating and preparing for heavy rush in the forthcoming tourist season, which is at its peak during the cattle fair. Foreign tourists have already started coming to the city and more are expected by the end of this month.

Madhya Pradesh emerges as top rain receiving state

New Delhi, Thursday, September 6, The central state of Madhya Pradesh has received most of the inland rainfall during the period June 1 to September 5 this year. Madhya Pradesh received a total of 1731.4 mm of rain during this period. It is one of the few states where rainfall has been above the normal during this monsoon. The normal seasonal rainfall for the state of Madhya Pradesh is 1652.7 mm.

West Madhya Pradesh, this time played a significant role in raising the bar in the state rainfall figure. West Madhya Pradesh received 14 percent above the normal rainfall thus nullifying the 3 percent deficiency over east Madhya Pradesh, which received 876.3 mm of rain against the normal rainfall of 902.5 mm of rain.

Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan are the other two inland states where rainfall has been above normal this year. Chhattisgarh received 1040.4 mm of rain, which is 6 percent above the normal rain while Rajasthan received 821.9 mm of rain, which is 7 percent above the normal rainfall. In Rajasthan western areas received 233.7 mm rain against the normal rainfall of 234.5 mm while east Rajasthan got 588.2 mm of rain against the normal rainfall of 548.3 mm of rain.

In coastal states, Karnataka is leading the chart of most rains followed by Maharashtra this year till now. Karnataka received a total of 3626.7 mm of rain, highest in the country while Maharashtra received a total of 1765 mm of rain during this period.

The coastal areas of the Karnataka contributed a major pie of these rains. But, north and south interior Karnataka remained rain deficient by 24% and 17% respectively. In Maharashtra, coastal areas accounted for 2566.8 mm of rainfall, which is 4 below the normal coastal rainfall while Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada accounted rain deficiency of 22% and 29% respectively.

Showers to stay over MP, Gujarat and Rajasthan; rain likely to reduce over Gangetic WB

New Delhi, Thursday, September 6, The moderate rain is likely to continue over west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and southeast Rajasthan in the next twenty four hours. After this period, the rain belt would shift northwestward over northwest Madhya Pradesh and northwest Rajasthan. The rainfall activities over the Gangetic West Bengal will continue with lesser intensity but would subdue after twenty four hours.

The current rain belt over the west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and southeast Rajasthan is expected to continue during the next twenty four hours. During this period, the low pressure area persisting over these places would move in the northwest direction where it will increase the intensity of the rain over  the rest of the parts of Rajasthan, northwest Madhya Pradesh as well as north and northeast Gujarat.

The cyclonic circulation over Gujarat persists and would be responsible for rain over Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat and Madhya Maharashtra during the next twenty four hours. Showers could be heavy to very heavy at one or two places over Gujarat.

However, the rain would reduce over the central peninsular areas over Vidarbha and Telangana as the low pressure area under the influence of which showers were taking place has moved away. But, the rain would continue to take place over Chhattisgarh, coastal Orissa, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal as the divided portion of the erstwhile low pressure area still persists over Chhattisgarh.

During the next twenty four hours, light to moderate rain would continue at many places over Chhattisgarh, coastal Orissa, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal. Rain is likely to subdue after the next twenty four hours. Rain could be heavy at one or two places over coastal Orissa during this period.

Along the west coast, the rainfall activities would continue over Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala during the next twenty four hours. The offshore seasonal trough is strong and active. The trough is extending from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast. Monsoon trough is essentially a region of intensified monsoon winds.

In the northwest plains, light showers are expected at a few places over Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh due to the incursion of moisture from the southeasterly winds originating in the Bay of Bengal. The other branch of the moist winds is reaching up to the northeastern states. Light showers would continue over the northeastern states during the next twenty four hours. In the Southern Peninsula, rain  would be subdued. Interior Karnataka, interior Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu can receive light showers at one or two places during the next twenty four hours.

Can we predict an Earthquake?

Japan Earthquake

Studies and research estimate that more than 200,000 earthquakes are recorded each year globally, making earthquake forecasting and prediction an active topic for geological research for scientists for years. Today’s earthquake in Japan has left many people questioning whether an earthquake can be predicted or not?

How earthquakes occur?

For centuries, people wondered what causes the Earth to shake. In the 1960s, scientists finally settled on the theory of tectonic plates. These plates move around, slide past and bump into each other.  Energy is released thereafter and radiates outward in the form of waves, causing an earthquake. The closer you are to the epicenter of an earthquake, the more you are at risk.

Why predicting is a challenge?

Weather forecasting is possible to an extent but foreseeing earthquakes and their time is still a challenge as identifying diagnostic precursors of earthquakes have remained unsuccessful in the past.

Diagnostic precursor is a characteristic pattern of seismic activity or a physical, chemical or biological change, which indicates a high probability of an earthquake taking place in a small window of space and time. 

Though pinpointing the exact time and size of an earthquake is currently impossible, scientists can estimate the probability of an earthquake occurring in a region over a span of decades. Knowing the date of the last earthquake helps improve forecasting, because scientists can estimate whether they’re early or late, based on the repeat time of earthquakes on that particular fault.

“The public is accustomed to the uncertainties of weather forecasting, but foreseeing where and when earthquakes may strike is far more difficult. Plus, too much reliance on earthquake hazard maps can have serious consequences”, says a Chinese scientist, Mian Liu. “Hazard maps fail because historical records in most places don’t go back long enough to get a good sense for patterns…since earthquake trends tend to emerge only on long timescales. The combination of bad and incomplete data, with a complicated system, means that hazard maps are guesses at best”, he added.

Some possible ways of predicting

Earthquakes are not as easy to predict as volcanic eruptions. However, there are still some possible ways of monitoring the chances of an earthquake:

1) Laser beams can be used to detect plate movement.

2) A seismometer is used to pick up the vibrations in the Earth's crust. An increase in vibrations may indicate a possible earthquake.

3) Radon gas escapes from cracks in the Earth's crust. Levels of radon gas can be monitored - a sudden increase may suggest an earthquake. In 2009, a technician at Italy's National Institute for Nuclear Physics claimed that he was able to predict the L'Aquila earthquake by measuring the radon gas seeping from the Earth's crust. His findings remain controversial.

4) Scientists from Edinburgh believe new aerial studies of the earth’s surface could help predict where earthquakes and landslides may occur. Specialist sensors carried by airplanes can be used to take measurements allowing experts to pinpoint areas of land, which are changing shape as a result of the earth’s plates moving.

5) Using radiocarbon dating of offset river sediments and collapsed hill-slope deposits, a research team led by Nanyang Technological University (NTU) discovered that massive earthquakes in the range of 8 to 8.5 magnitudes on the Richter scale leave clear ground scars in the central Himalayas. The study explained devastating earthquakes in the Himalayas in the past means that quakes of the same magnitude could happen again in the region in future.

6) A group of scientists from Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG) in Dehradun, stated that a host of Instruments such as workhorse seismometers, gravimeters, essentially ultrasensitive weighing machines can be used to study the possibilities of an earthquake in a particular area. Even specialized magnetometers that measure minute changes in the gravitational force, the ups and downs of the magnetic field surrounding the rocks within a 50 km radius, as well as a continuous survey of the radioactivity of the water table in the vicinity, can be used to study the possibilities of an earthquake in a particular area.

7) Just as the way animals can help majorly in forecasting certain weather phenomenon, they can also be of a lot of help in predicting a possible earthquake in a place.

Some claim that an oarfish washing ashore is a sign that an earthquake will soon follow. Shortly before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, about 20 oarfish stranded themselves on beaches in the area.

There have been reports throughout history of reptiles, amphibians, and fish behaving in unusual ways just before an earthquake. Frogs and snakes, for example, may help in predicting an earthquake, as they can sense chemical changes in groundwater that occur when a quake is about to strike.

“We have learned that predicting an earthquake is a tough nut to crack. To make the kind of accurate, short-term prediction for an earthquake, one would need to identify a reliable signal that a quake is coming. Until then, preparedness is our best defense”, says Jatin Singh CEO of Skymet Weather Services.

Picture credit- SILive.com

 

7.6 magnitude earthquake jolts Costa Rica, Nicaragua

New Delhi, Thursday, September 6, At least three people died and 30 more injured when a 7.6 magnitude earthquake jolted western coast of Costa Rica on Wednesday morning. The epicenter of the earthquake was reported 8 km off northeast Samara in Costa Rica and 151 km west off San Jose, the capital.
Two women were frightened to death due to heart attack when the earthquake broke out around 8:30 a.m. local time (1430 GMT), while the third victim, a man, was crushed when a building under construction collapsed. At least 30 people were injured in the earthquake that caused slight to moderate damage to buildings in the disaster area and was followed by about 60 aftershocks.
Broken water pipes in Samara and cracks in the road connecting San Jose with the epicenter area were witnessed. In San Jose, the quake shook buildings and sent residents fleeing to the streets. Connections via mobile phones and regular phones were disrupted. Electricity cut-off has been reported in the capital.
Casualties were also reported in neighboring country Nicaragua where three women died after their boat capsized from a large wave caused by the quake. A tsunami warning was initially issued after the quake, but it was later canceled.

Rain looms large over Rajasthan

New Delhi, Wednesday, September 5, Moderate to heavy rain is likely to lash Bikaner, Barmer,    Jodhpur and Jaisalmer districts of Rajasthan during the next twenty four to forty eight hours.

The rainfall activities are expected to pick up over the state as the low pressure area over east Madhya Pradesh and adjacent areas will move to west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Gujarat and southeast Rajasthan. The rain would occur over southeastern districts of Rajasthan adjoining west Madhya Pradesh during the next twenty four hours.

After this period, this low pressure area will further move westward to merge with the cyclonic circulation over Gujarat and neighboring areas. It will then move in the northwest direction and will bring rain over Bikaner, Barmer, Jodhpur and Jaisalmer districts of Rajasthan during the next one or two days. Due to the incessant rain, flood like situation may erupt over these districts during this period.







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