The sluggish trend continued in Chickpea or chana on weak physical demand and poor buying by millers. Notwithstanding, the expected decline in output, chana has been witnessing a downtrend due to arrival of poor quality produce in major markets of MP. The bearish trend in chana is likely to continue, according to traders.
Turmeric prices was up by Rs 300 per quintal, as medium quality turmeric arrived in Erode mandi market. Traders are expecting fine quality turmeric for their committed demand fromNorth India. Turmeric exporters are also awaiting fine quality as the demand is very high in abroad. At the Erode market, prices were Rs 4770-7299 per quintal.
As per Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA),India’s sugar production output has recorded a 1.6 million tonnes or seven per cent decrease at 21.5 million tonnes during the April 2013 to March 2014 fiscal year. During the same period last fiscal year, sugar production was 23.1 million tonnes. The fall in production is due to poor cane yields.
According to the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA),India’s soymeal exports has recorded a negative growth of approximate 0.59 million tonnes or 17.27 per cent at 2.84 million tonnes during the April 2013 to March 2014 financial year. During the same period last year, soymeal exports were recorded at about 3.43 million tonnes.
Geographically, Northeast India has been a weather sensitive pocket and is specially known for deluge on account of incessant rains. This feature seems to be eluding in the recent past. Contrarily, the region is observing drought like conditions, both in Pre-Monsoon and Southwest monsoon season, albeit with few exceptions.
Southwest monsoon rains have not been in excess at all, at least in the last ten years. Factually, the deficiency has been varying anywhere from 10% to 30% and occasionally even more. The bad monsoon year like 2009 and below normal rains in 2012 understandably get accounted for poor rains over Northeast India. However, the best of the monsoon year like 2013 left an overall deficiency exceeding 30% over Northeast India. Visible shift in the rainfall pattern along with skewed spacial distribution calls for identification and ascertaining factors leading to the anomaly.
It is observed that Pre- Monsoon deficit rains over Northeast India get invariably carried forward and quite often are indicative of below normal rainfall in the Southwest monsoon season. Year 2014 seems no different from the previous years. The post winter rains, so far, over the region remain highly deficit. Additionally, the record breaking high temperatures and the prolonged dry spell is casting shadow, possibly on the performance of monsoon in the coming months. Skymet Meteorology Division in India, had earlier published an article `Northeast India Boils` highlighting oppressive heat over these parts.
Here are the rainfall figures in millimeters for March and April 2014 for few stations in this area:
| STATION | Normal rain in March | Actual rain in March | Normal rain in April | Actual rain in April(1-23rd) |
| Guwahati | 51 | 9 | 159 | 16 |
| Dibrugarh | 106 | 26 | 230 | 24 |
| Lakhimpur | 85 | 29 | 207 | 27 |
| Silchar | 153 | 31 | 329 | 120 |
| Tejpur | 41 | 19 | 157 | 22 |
| Imphal | 92 | 34 | 133 | 21 |
This clearly goes on to show that rainfall deficiency is alarming. However, fresh spell of rain is expected in the last few days of April, keeping hopes alive of rainfall deficit being covered up.
picture courtesy- dailymail.co.uk
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its Monsoon forecast for 2014 and put the Monsoon figure at 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%, which corroborates Skymet’s observation of below normal monsoon rain.
Earlier, on April 15, Skymet had released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2014, where it confirmed the coming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ at 94% (error margin of ± 4%) of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
IMD in its press release has termed ENSO - a phenomenon wherein the Central and East Pacific ocean warms (El Niño) or cools (La Niña), in turn affecting rainfall in India - as the reason behind weak monsoon. It says “ENSO conditions in the Equatorial Pacific continue to be normal. However, the sub surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have warmed to the levels generally observed prior to an El Niño event.”
This is similar to what Skymet had said on April 15, “The weakness in Monsoon could possibly be attributed to an evolving ENSO”.
IMD has put the chance of El Niño strengthening at 60%, while Skymet had put it at 30%. In Monsoon foreshadow 2014 we had said “El Niño is evolving as of now, but is expected to get arrested. There is only a 30% chance of this phenomenon getting stronger.”
Another area where IMD and Skymet have been very close in their observation is the India Ocean Dipole (IOD), one among various factors responsible for influencing Indian monsoon.
IMD has said “currently near India Ocean Dipole (IOD) are prevailing over equatorial India Ocean. Based on the recent forecasts from some coupled models it is expected that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue till the end of southwest monsoon season.” Skymet too in its foreshadow had said “There is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during monsoon.”
This clearly goes on to show that our Monsoon foreshadow 2014 has drawn the correct picture so far.
As always, we will share monthly updates along with regular rainfall observations on our website in the coming months.
Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company has released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2014. Skymet expects the coming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’. It has forecast the Monsoon at 94% (error margin of +/-4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
In terms of geographical risk, Skymet suggests that peninsular India will be at less risk through June, July, August and September (JJAS). There seems to be weakness in majority subdivisions in Northwest India (Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana) and West-Central India (East MP, West MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharshtra, Konkan & Goa, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana) during the whole season. August is expected to be the best month among the four, although negative. It appears that onset may be staggered.
According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, “This weakness in Monsoon could possibly be attributed to an evolving ENSO”. The ENSO is a phenomenon wherein the Central and East Pacific ocean warms (El Niño) or cools (La Niña), in turn affecting the Monsoon.
El Niño is evolving as of now, but is expected to get arrested. There is only a 30% chance of this phenomenon getting stronger. According to Mr. Singh, “If this El Niñowas amplifying, then there would be a stronger chance of drought, like in 2009. This does not seem to be the case at this point in time.”
There is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year during monsoon.
According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June – 90% of LPA (LPA = 174 mm)
July – 94% of LPA (LPA = 285 mm)
August – 98% of LPA (LPA = 253 mm)
September – 90% of LPA (LPA = 184 mm)
To download our presentation on Monsoon Foreshadow for 2014 click here.
The speakers at our Monsoon Foreshadow 2014 event, held on 15 April:
Jatin Singh - CEO and Founder, Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.
Retd. AVM G.P. Sharma - Vice President, Meteorology, Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd.
D.R. Sikka - Chairman of the Monsoon Mission (Ex-director, Indian Institute of Tropical Metereology)
Odisha in eastcentral India is currently boiling, with five out of nine places in the state featuring in the list of hottest places. But Bhira in Maharashtra emerged as the hottest place on Wednesday. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, day temperatures in these places will be the same on Thursday.
| Place | State | Temperature recorded on Wednesday | Forecast trend for Thursday |
| Bhira | Maharashtra | 43°C | Same |
| Hanamkonda | Andhra Pradesh | 42.7°C | Same |
| Bhabanipatna | Odisha | 42.5°C | Same |
| Khargaon | Madhya Prdesh | 42.5°C | Same |
| Bhubaneswar | Odisha | 42.2°C | Same |
| Bankura | West Bengal | 42.1°C | Same |
| Angul | Odisha | 42.1°C | Same |
| Titlagarh | Odisha | 42°C | Same |
| Sambalpur | Odisha | 41.7°C | Rise |
Photograph by Krupasandhu Muduli
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Kolkata and Hyderabad are among the hottest cities in India at the moment. And there doesn't seem any respite from the heat. Mumbai, the commercial capital has also witnessed a rise in day temperatures in the last couple of days. Forecast suggests that the weather in Mumbai will be hot but sea breeze during evening and night will make it a little comfortable. Here's a table that shows weather forecast of major Indian cities on Friday.
| City | Maximum Temperature (forecast for Friday) | Minimum Temperature (forecast for Friday) | Conditions |
| Delhi | 39°C | 22°C | Intense heat during the day, evening/night to remain better with mild breeze |
| Mumbai | 36°C | 25°C | Day to remain moderately uncomfortable, Sea breeze in the evening |
| Kolkata | 41°C | 28°C | Very hot afternoon, post noon short spell of rain expected |
| Chennai | 35°C | 27°C | Partly cloudy sky |
| Bangalore | 35°C | 24°C | Partly cloudy to cloudy sky with chances of rain |
| Hyderabad | 41°C | 27°C | Partly cloudy sky |
The table shows that Bangalore will be the only major city where some rain may be experienced tomorrow. It also shows that the weather in Kolkata will be uncomfortable even in the morning hours as temperatures will settle in the higher twenties.
Photograph by
