Given the increased arrival of mustard seed across the major spot markets in India, any rally in prices appears unlikely in the coming days. In the physical market, mustard seeds are ruling stable at Rs 3900-4050 per quintal on slack demand. In Rajasthan markets, mustard oil traded lower with arrivals outstripping demand.
Sugar production in Thailand(the second-ranked exporting country), warning over the threat of El Nino possibility this year. Sugarcane production in the rain-fed areas will be affected. USDA bureau in Bangkok, in its first estimates for Thai sugar in 2014-15, pegged production at 10.38 MT, down 1 MT on this season's record figure.
ICE cotton rose after weekly United States government data showed Chinese buyers purchased the most bales since January, easing worries over slowing demand in the world's top consumer and reinforcing concerns over tight nearby US supplies.USexporters booked 124100 running bales of upland cotton in the week ended April 17, 2014.
When we think about the impact of the monsoon on the Indian economy, we are trying to effectively gauge the risk of drought (10% less than the 89 cm long-period average). Evidence suggests that the Indian economy today is drought resilient but not drought proof. The distinction being that once drought-proof there is no negative impact on the economy, but in a drought-resilient country, there is a negative but manageable impact. This shift has steadily taken place over the last 40 years as the rabi, or winter crop, output has become of equal significance to the kharif, or summer crop, harvest. For the first time in FY2012, the rabi crop output surpassed the kharif output (out of total foodgrain production of 257 million tonnes, 124 million tonnes was from kharif and 133 million tonnes from rabi).
Due to efforts by various governments in the last 50 years, farmers’ drought resilience has increased. Maharashtra is a case in point. Since the formation of the state in 1960, maximum values for food production have been increasing; the minimum values in drought years have also risen. This pattern is more or less repeated across the country.
Third, in rural areas, non-farm income is increasingly supplementing farm income. And fourth, agriculture’s share of gross domestic product (GDP) has also shrunk, from 50% in the 1950s to about 12-15% today. This implies that the country has the capacity to buy its way out of trouble.
But drought resilience is very expensive and has its limits. If for argument’s sake we look at food production as the only monsoon impact on the economy, its strength still has direct bearing. On average in an excess monsoon year (10% more than the 89cm long-period average), food production jumps by 15%; in a normal year it grows by about 4.4% and, in a drought year falls by 7%. Food production as a measure of the monsoon’s impact is skewed because it does not consider the cost of energy used to produce that food. The monsoon affects both the demand and the supply side of energy. Approximately 30% of India’s total power output is used for irrigation. About 19% of India’s total diesel usage is for agriculture.
Since Haryana has less financial resources, it resorts to power cuts hitting urban, industrial and even agricultural consumers, who then shift to diesel. In drought years, diesel demands shoot up by an average of anywhere between 5-7%, pushing up the diesel subsidy bill (ccurrently crude oil accounts for 30-35% of India’s total imports).India is rapidly urbanizing, and air conditioning and industrial needs are competing with agricultural requirements. The year 2009 witnessed a mega drought, and the price of power in the grid shot up to about Rs.19 per unit from a yearly average of Rs.4/unit. In 2012, a monsoon-deficit year, price of power shot to about Rs.9 per unit from a yearly average of Rs.4/unit.
Economists need to start calculating the impact of the monsoon on the economy using an index of food production and cost of energy as opposed to just agriculture GDP. I think the impact is deeper than we think.
In the coming years, the monsoon is not going to support our creaky food, energy and water construct. The monsoon works in 30-year patterns, i.e., three decades of higher frequency of excess rain followed by three decades of high frequency of droughts. In 1985, India was supposed to enter into a period of three decades of excess rain. That has not happened. The 30-year pattern seems to have extended to 60 years. The last excess monsoon was 19 years ago (1994). Between 1900 and 2000, there was an average one drought per decade. Between 2000 and 2012 there have been three droughts (2002, 2004, 2009) and one deficit year (2012). Climate experts predict that there will be a higher frequency of droughts in India till about 2040.
Over the last decade or so, food production growth has averaged about 3%. In the same period, India’s population has grown at a yearly pace of about 1.5%. Demand for electrical energy is growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 7/8% per annum, diesel consumption is growing by another 7/8% per annum. But between 2000 and 2010 accumulated rainfall was below the long-term average by 6%. This trend is probably being reflected in volatile food prices, and sharply rising energy costs. While making bets and policy on food and energy over the next decade or so, businesses and governments need to account for the monsoon on the conservative side.
Skymet Monsoon Foreshadow 2014
On April 15, Skymet released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2014, where it confirmed the coming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ at 94% (error margin of ± 4%) of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
This has been corroborated by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which released its Monsoon forecast for 2014 on April 23. IMD put the Monsoon figure at 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%
picture courtesy- greenfieldgeography
Here are some of the alerts issued by Skymet Meteorology Division in India.
Weather Alert for Mizoram issued at 16:04 pm
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at some places in Aizawl district of Mizoram in next 2-6 hours. Strong winds of 30 to 50 kmph are likely to blow during the period.
Weather Alert for Assam issued at 16:03 pm
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at some places over Cachar, Hailakandi and Karimganj districts of Assam in the next 2-6 hours. Rain will be accompanied by strong winds blowing at a speed of 30 to 50 kmph.
Weather Alert for Odisha issued at 14:04 pm
Gajapati and Rayagada districts in Odisha are likely to receive light to moderate rain and thundershowers in next 2-4 hours. Strong winds of 40 kmph are likely to blow during this period.
Weather Alert for Andhra Pradesh issued at 14:01 pm
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at a few places in Vizianagaram district of Andhra Pradesh in the next 2-4 hours. Rain will be accompanied by strong winds blowing at a speed of 30 kmph gusting at 60 kmph.
Rentachintala of Andhra Pradesh has returned to the table of top ten hottest places in India as it recorded 43.4°C as maximum temperature on Thursday. Bhubaneswar rose to second spot in the list of hottest places as maximum temperature recorded 42.8°C. Baroda in Gujarat is the latest entrant in the list as it observed 42°C as the maximum temperature. Here is a table that shows hottest places in India on Thursday and their forecast for Friday.
| Place | State | Temperature recorded on Thursday | Forecast trend for Friday |
| Rentachintala | Andhra Pradesh | 43.4°C | Same |
| Bhubaneswar | Odisha | 42.8°C | Same |
| Bankura | West Bengal | 42.8°C | Same |
| Bhabanipatna | Odisha | 42.7°C | Same |
| Angul | Odisha | 42.7°C | Same |
| Barmer | Rajasthan | 42.6°C | Rise |
| Titlagarh | Odisha | 42.5°C | Rise |
| Jalgaon | Maharashtra | 42.3°C | Drop |
| Akola | Maharashtra | 42.1°C | Same |
| Baroda | Gujarat | 42°C | Drop |
Photograph by G.-U. Tolkiehn
Insufficient rain in Dooars has affected tea plantation as 50 per cent production has been hampered in 2014.
Dooars are the floodplains and foothills of the eastern Himalayas in West Bengal and Northeast India. The Western Dooars is known as the Bengal Dooars, while the Eastern Dooars is called the Assam Dooars. The region politically constitutes the plains of Darjeeling District, Jalpaiguri District and the upper region of Cooch Behar District in West Bengal. The districts of Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Goalpara and Bongaigaon in the state of Assam also come under its purview. Dooars simply means Terai, a word used in Nepal and northern India and form the only nitrate rich soil in India.
Tea Market
At the auction market, offerings are quite low and have led to rise in prices of CTC, orthodox and dust variety of tea. "Production is low and the industry is incurring huge losses as the heat is burning the tea gardens," exclaims Aayush Bansal, Director of Aryan Tea Plantation (P) Ltd in Jalpaiguri.
A dry weather has affected the production of new season teas. As told to media by Secretary of Calcutta Tea Traders Association (CTTA), J Kayanasundaram, prices of CTC teas took a leap by 15 per cent and rose to Rs. 161 per kg from Rs. 139 per kg in the corresponding period of 2013. The other two varieties have also appreciated by 35 per cent from last year.
Rain in Dooars
In the month of April, the area received 192 mm of rain in 2012 and 114.2 mm in 2013. This year, rain has been deficit and Dooars has received very scanty rain this month. The month of February and March just had 38.5 mm and 22.9 mm of rain, respectively.
Skymet Meteorology Division in India has mentioned in its previous article that Northeast India is a weather sensitive pocket and is specially known for deluge on account of incessant rains. However, this feature seems has been eluding in the recent past. The region has been observing drought like conditions, both in pre-monsoon and Southwest monsoon season, albeit with few exceptions. (click here to read more).
With the mighty Brahmaputra River winding its majestic course through the land of the one-horned Rhino, Assam and the sub-Himalayan West Bengal are two of the most important tea growing regions of the country. The total area under tea production in Assam is 312,210 hectares. The rich, full-bodied and bright tea grown here is simply called Assam Tea.
The post winter rain over Assam has been highly deficit. Lakhimpur received only 29 mm of rain in March against the normal count of 85 mm. Even more harrowing is the amount received this month so far, which is 27 mm against the normal average of 207 mm. Similarly, Dibrugarh received only 24 mm of rain in April till date, against normal average of 230 mm of rain.
Moreover, record breaking high temperatures and the prolonged dry spell is casting shadow over the performance of monsoon in the Northeastern states. Skymet Meteorology Division in India had also an article `Northeast India Boils` (click here to read more) highlighting oppressive heat over these parts.
picture courtesy- Assam Science
Skymet Satellite image locates a fresh Western Disturbance over Afghanistan and adjoining parts of north Pakistan. There is also an associated cyclonic circulation over west Rajasthan. It is expected that during the next two days, these weather systems while moving east-northeastwards would bring some change to the dry weather in North India over the Western Himalayan region and adjoining northern parts of northwest plains. Other than Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh that will witness rain, north Punjab, north Rajasthan, Haryana and northwest Uttar Pradesh could experience clouds, squally winds and light rain during this period.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Winds from the Arabian Sea will reach the hills and adjoining plains to bring rain and squally weather. Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand may get some respite from the above normal temperatures but same will not be true for the plains as rain or thunder squalls that will take place during post noon or evening hours will not affect the temperatures.
Dry weather and constant heating has led to rise in day temperatures in northwest plains, where maximums have been recording two to three notches above normal in places like Hisar and Karnal in Haryana. Day temperatures were also near normal or above it in Punjab, Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh. Patiala recorded a maximum of 37°C, while Jaipur and Agra in the region recorded 38°C and 38.9°C respectively.
Yes, the wedding season is in full swing and a lot of couples across the country are beginning a new life. Following the suit, after years of speculation surrounding their relationship, the Bong beauty and Bollywood actor Rani Mukherjee and Aditya Chopra finally tied the knot on 21st April, far away in Italy.
Rani Mukherjee established herself as a leading actress by her iconic performance as a deaf and blind girl in Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s movie Black and commercial hits Hum Tum, Kuch Kuch Hota Hai and Bunty aur Babli among others. Her better half is son of late filmmaker Yash Chopra and after writing and directing several movies under the Chopra production banner, established himself as one of India's most influential directors.
The honeymoon season generally follows the wedding season and even though the latest Bollywood couple had a private affair in Italy, there’s no harm in a Desi honeymoon. Their preferred destination could be anywhere across the globe but Skymet Meteorology Division in India would like to present its top 5 list:
Manali
Hill stations would be the first choice as the plains are burning at present. According to latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, maximums are above mid-thirties in most of the places across the country except for the cool and serene hill stations.
Manali is one of the most popular tourist attractions, especially during summer in India. Temperatures are perfect for making your honeymoon a memorable one as Manali recorded 23.6°C as maximum yesterday, while minimum today was 6.8°C.
Rain is in the offing as a fresh Western Disturbance is approaching Jammu & Kashmir could bring short sharp showers in Manali in the next 24 hours. However, rain will only make the weather even more pleasant and would not last for long.
Shimla
Shimla maintains ideal temperatures this season and recorded 23.4°C as maximum yesterday and 14°C as minimum today morning. Chances of rain are very less here due to the approaching Western Disturbance.
The romantic climate, gorgeous view of Himalayas and lush green hills and fields make Shimla one of the most favourite honeymoon places in India. Must-visits include Jakhu temple, the Mall, the Ridge, Hip Hip Hurray Amusement park, Viceregal Lodge, Dorje Drag Monastery and Christ Church.
Darjeeling
If one is bored of the hills of North India, go for the Paradise on Earth, Darjeeling. Day temperatures are in low-twenties and nights are equally comfortable with minimums around 12°C.
The best places to visit in this hill station include Peace Pagoda, Padmaja Naidu Himalayan Zoological Park, Mahakal Temple and Lloyd Botanical Garden. The heart of Darjeeling, Chowrasta, is the perfect place to spend leisurely evenings and mornings. Here you can escape the hustle bustle of the area, sit back, unwind yourself after a long day of sightseeing, eat, sip hot tea and watch the locals enjoying.
Amidst all this, Darjeeling still hasn’t lost its sense of belonging and warmth even in the shiver of the morning at Tiger Hill and the on-going political disturbance.
Ooty
Udhagamandalam or Ooty, the queen of hill stations is nestled in Nilgiri Hills and blessed with nature's generosity. The luxurious hills, lush green valleys, a dense flora and fauna and overall fascinating beauty will definitely make one’s honeymoon the most revered holiday. Ooty too is cool and comfortable at present with maximum around 22°C and minimum near 12°C.
Andaman & Nicobar Island
If you do not care about heat with temperatures in mid-thirties and high humidity levels, Andaman & Nicobar Island is not a bad option. Days are definitely hot and humid in summer but you can enjoy a romantic walk with your partner in the evenings when the breeze makes weather comfortable.
It is fondly referred to as the gateway of romance as it has exotic environment, top-notch hotels offering luxurious dining dates, adventurous activities and a good nightlife.
Generally couples plan their honeymoon months ahead but this list could be useful for the ones who haven’t yet decided their destination.
picture courtesy- India Tourist Place
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Kolkata in the next two days will witness a drop in day temperature but humid winds from the Bay of Bengal will keep the weather sultry and uncomfortable.
The latest weather update by Skymet shows a trough of low extending from sub-Himalayan West Bengal to Odisha, which is likely to change the wind condition. Southwesterly or southerly winds are expected to dominate the weather in Kolkata for the next two days. The humidity will absorb heat and pull down the temperatures.
Kolkata has been experiencing extremely hot and dry conditions that have pushed the maximum temperatures about six notches above normal. Day temperature in Kolkata rose for the second straight day on Thursday to record 41.1°C. This is the second highest maximum temperature recorded in Kolkata in the last ten years. The highest maximum temperature in Kolkata was recorded at 41.2°C on 19th April, 2009.
Owing to the prevailing weather in Kolkata, the state government has announced that summer vacations in 57,000 primary and more than 18,000 secondary and higher secondary schools to start from 2nd May instead of 19th May. According to a report published in the Telegraph which quoted a government official, the vacation will end on 31st May but could be extended if the hot spell continues. The weather has also prompted changes in school timings.
Photograph by Piyal Kondu
