Skymet weather

Change of weather brings respite from heat in Northeast India

The amalgamation of splendour and serenity is the essence of Northeast India, fondly known as the ‘pristine fairy land’.

Lack of rain and warm westerly winds from the adjoining states of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal led to heat wave and significant rise in day temperatures last week across Northeast India, comprising of the seven states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya and Manipur.

Insufficient rain in the states including Dooars has affected tea plantations as 50 per cent production has been hampered in 2014. Maximums were soaring in Assam, Manipur and Mizoram and recorded 7 to 9 degrees above the normal average.

The maximum temperature in Guwahati touched 40.1⁰C on 21st April, equalling the all-time high recorded on 7th April, 1999. This was nine degrees above the normal average of 31⁰C for the month of April. Dhubri recorded 37⁰C on the same day. This was the highest maximum in last one decade as Dhubri had touched 36.3⁰C on 27th April, 2009. In North Lakhimpur, maximum reached 37.6⁰C on 20th April. The last time North Lakhimpur became so hot was on 22nd April, 1999, when the maximum settled at 36.2⁰C.

However, the weather in Northeast India improved after rain lashed the region last weekend resulting in a total change of fate as temperatures have come down significantly and settling in low-thirties in most places.

Reason for rain in Northeast India

In this season, the heat pockets in West Bengal and Bihar lead to the formation of small cyclonic circulations giving rise to moisture laden southwesterly and southerly winds, which bring light to good amounts of rain in Northeast India and sub Himalayan West Bengal.

Last Sunday almost all the weather stations including Dibrugarh, Passighat, Shilong, Cherrapunji, Imphal and Kohima witnessed some rain.

The circulation over sub Himalayan West Bengal and East India has been persisting and brought light rain in the region in last 24 hours. Darjeeling received 21.2 mm of rain, Kailashahar 15 mm, Jalpaiguri 7.6 mm, Jorhat 8.3 mm, Dibrugarh 4.5 mm, Kohima 2.8 mm and Lakhimpur 2 mm of rain. Guwahati, Tejpur, Passighat, Imphal, Silchar, Agartala and Shillong also received very light rain.

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the Western Disturbance while moving across the region will accentuate the intensity of rain in the northeast region on the first 3 days of May. This will bring good weather to the region that had been experiencing record-breaking temperatures last week. The tea planters in Dooars are heaving a sigh of relief as they see a new ray of hope for meeting the demands.

Hot spell continues in Delhi, temperatures to rise further

The latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India indicates that the maximum temperature in Delhi could rise further in the next 48 hours under the influence of westerly winds from Rajasthan. On Tuesday, the maximum temperature could rise to enter in forties for the first time in this season.

Delhi recorded its highest temperature at 39.5°C on Monday and is likely to hover around 41°C on Tuesday and Wednesday. An extended weather forecast for Delhi foresees chances of rain during the weekend. The temperature will be slightly higher than normal in during the next two to three days but a respite for the hot and dry weather is expected by Saturday, Skymet Meteorology Division in India said in its forecast.

Minimum temperature recorded in Delhi on Tuesday was 22.6°C, which is also the warmest of the season till now. It is expected to rise further due to the westerly winds in the national capital.

The weather in Delhi during the first three weeks of April had largely been pleasant but since Wednesday last week, temperatures have been on rising. The northward shift of Western Disturbances in later part of April has turned on the heat in the national capital as winds coming from west and northwest are more warm, which is pushing up the temperatures.

Temperature in Delhi on a rising trend since Wednesday, 25th April

Days Maximum temperature
Wednesday 36°C
Thursday 37.2°C
Friday 38.8°C
Saturday 38.8°C
Sunday 38.7°C
Monday 39.5°C

 

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Below normal monsoon in India likely to impact GDP

If mood at the Dalal Street on Friday and then on Monday is to go by, the below normal monsoon in India could present the first major hurdle for the incumbent government post Lok Sabha Elections.

After losing 188.47 points on Friday, the Bombay Stock Exchange sensex fell over 56.46 points on Monday as funds and retail investors indulged in booking profits at prevailing levels amid forecast of below normal monsoon this year.

Brokers are of the view that the current selling spree is mostly of a profit-booking nature, by participants at current levels amid forecast of below normal monsoon this year, which is influencing the traders sentiments at the moment.

“We believe it would be premature to factor in weak agriculture production and maintain agriculture gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate at 3.3%. But if El Nino conditions are fully factored in, the agriculture GDP growth may be lower by 250-300 basis points (bps), and the average retail inflation may be 100 bps higher”, said a report published in the Livemint Website that quoted Kotal Institutional Equities.

In the report, the Kotal Institutional Equities further said that India experienced the impact of El Nino conditions in FY2010 with agriculture GDP registering 1% growth. They maintained that agriculture GDP growth of 3.3%; worst-case scenario: 0.3-0.7% growth. With most of the production critically dependent on July-August rainfall, we maintain our FY2015 agriculture GDP growth estimate at 3.3% for now.

The Kotal Institutional Equities cautioned that if they were to factor in weak monsoons (similar to FY2010) then it is likely that:

A. For FY2015, the overall GDP growth estimate would be lower by 40-50 bps (current estimate: 5.1%).

B. Agricultural GDP growth estimate would be lower by 250-300 bps (current estimate: 3.3%).

C. The average consumer price index (CPI) inflation would increase 100 bps (current estimate: 7.6%).

 

Photograph by ILRI

Heat wave continues in Odisha and West Bengal, death toll rises

According to media reports, the ongoing heat wave in Odisha and West Bengal has claimed more than a dozen lives in these states till now. A report published in the New Indian Express quoted a Special Relief Commissioner in Mayurbhanj district who confirmed another death on Sunday, taking it up to 14. This comes after three people died of sunstroke last week in Kolkata, the capital of neighbouring state West Bengal.  The exact number of death in West Bengal is yet to be ascertained especially, in the rural areas.

Both these states are not expected to get any reprieve from sweltering heat during the next two to three days. Sambalpur, Titlagarh and Talchar were the hottest places in Odisha, while Bankura  Beharampur, Bardhaman and Asansol in West Bengal recorded recorded 44.5°C as the maximum temperature on Sunday - the highest maximum in the region.

Kolkata recorded 39°C as the maximum on Sunday. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the 'City of Joy' will continue to experience day temperature around 40 °C. Other places in Gangetic West Bengal will also not observe any drop in day temperature during this period due to continuation of land winds from the west direction. Skymet Meteorology Division in India indicates toward some post noon or late evening showers but that would not have any impact on the day temperatures whatsoever.

Heat wave in Bihar, UP inching closer

Day temperatures in east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand are also in the early forties. Allahabad and Varanasi in east Uttar Pradesh have near normal day temperatures but Patna, Aurangabad, Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur and Chapra were in the grip of heat wave on Sunday.  Maximums were recorded 4 to 6 degrees above normal in these places. Daltongunj and Jamshedpur in Jharkhand also recorded above normal day temperatures. The latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India indicates that there will not be any relief from the hot conditions as winds would continue to blow from the plains that are witness maximums settling around 40°C.

 

Photograph by Biswarup Ganguly

Weather forecast for the week in India from 28th April to 4th May

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather in India will be extremely hot this week. Here’s a look:

North India – The maximum temperature in North India is expected to touch 40⁰C at many places, including Haryana, Rajasthan and some pockets of Delhi (for eg: Palam station). After dry and hot days, a circulation near Rajasthan may give some light thundershowers in Delhi, Haryana, parts of Punjab and east Rajasthan, by 3rd or 4th May. This weather system (cyclonic circulation) will only affect the weather in the northern plains. Up in the hills of Jammu and Kashmir the weather will be dry due to absence of a Western Disturbance.

East and Northeast India – While the weather in East India will be hot and dry this week, with no significant weather system affecting the region, the weather in Northeast India will be rainy for next couple of days. Widespread light rain in Northeast India will be due to a circulation of winds present near Sub-Himalayan West Bengal. Rain will increase gradually from the second half of the week. East India will see maximums soaring and settling in the early forties.

Central India – Weather in Central India, particularly in Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh, will be the hottest in India this week. Maximums will exceed 43⁰C in many places. It could even touch 44⁰C in isolated pockets. Some of the hottest cities will be Malegaon, Nagpur, Akola and Jabalpur. However, towards the middle of the week a trough extending from Vidarbha to Kerala could give light isolated rainfall in M.P and Vidarbha. Gujarat and Odisha will remain dry throughout the week.

South India – Weather in South India will be rainy throughout the week. Rain and clouds will keep the maximums in the mid-thirties in most parts. Coastal regions of Kerala will receive more rain than south interior Karnataka, south Tamil Nadu and north coastal Andhra Pradesh. Rain would occur due to mix up of warm and humid winds with dry and hot land winds. Nights will be the warmest in this part of the country. Minimums will settle in the higher twenties. Anantpur, Kurnool and Tirupati in Andhra Pradesh could be the hottest places in South India, with maximums settling in the forties.

Photo by Ritika Acharya.







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