Day temperatures continued to record three to five degrees above normal at many places in northwest and Indo-Gangetic plains on Thursday. But weather model at Skymet Meteorology Division in India indicates a marginal drop in maximums in the next 48 hours. They will, however remain in the early forties.
Maximum temperatures in Amritsar, Ludhiana, Jaipur and Agra were recorded between 42°C and 44°C on Thursday. Skymet Meteorology Division anticipates some spell of thunderstorm, dust storm and rain under the influence of Western Disturbance and its associated cyclonic circulation in northwest plains in the next two days. This would arrest the rise in temperature on Friday.
Western Rajasthan would also observe better conditions due to dust storm and strong cool winds. The rising temperatures may get arrested for a while. Ganganagar and Churu remained the hottest places in the country on Thursday. Haryana also witnessed heat wave in places like Hisar and Karnal as temperatures were recorded at 45°C and 43°C respectively on Thursday.
In Gangetic plains, the 'Sangam City' Allahabad continued to boil as maximum recorded 45°C, a trend being observed for the last couple of days. The 'Holi City' Varanasi recorded the maximum at 44.4°C which added to the miseries of political workers and leaders campaigning for Lok Sabha polls. Varanasi is going to the polls on 12th May.
Meanwhile, skymet satellite image shows a wind discontinuity extending from Bihar to Tamil Nadu across Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada and interior Karnataka. Due to the friction of land and sea winds, sky will remain partly cloudy and some post noon or evening showers could occur in these parts. Due to high pressure gradient, winds will also be strong and could blow at a speed of upto 50 kmph in Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and madhya Maharashtra.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, interior Karanataka and Tamil Nadu could also observe some pre-monsoon rain during the next 48 hours. Kerala will continue to experience pre-monsoon rain during this period as a trough lies along the coast.
Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and some of the other northeastern states will be witness increase in rainfall in the next 48 hours. A cyclonic circulation over Assam will be facilitating southerly to southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal to the region.
After experiencing the first real bout of heat wave like conditions during the later part of April, Delhiites can finally expect some relief from the high temperatures early in May. According to the latest weather update, a drop of two to three degrees is expected in the day temperature in Delhi for the next two days.
A short spell of thunderstorm or dust storm and strong winds blowing at around 50 kmph could also be observed in different parts of the city, which could lead to power cuts. So before planning a night-out do follow our weather alerts.
Day temperature in Delhi on Thursday touched 42.8°C. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, maximums will drop during the next two days due to dust storm associated with cool winds. Meanwhile, night temperature surged further and recorded 26.2°C, two notches higher than Thursday. It is expected to remain in mid-twenties for the next two days.
The following table shows maximum temperatures in Delhi for the last five days, which points out that the day temperature during the first two days of May is three notches higher than the average of 39.6°C.
| Days | Maximum temperature |
| Sunday | 38.7°C |
| Monday | 39.5°C |
| Tuesday | 41°C |
| Wednesday | 42.1°C |
| Thursday | 42.8°C |
Meanwhile, minimum temperature is also about three notches above normal. The following table shows that Friday morning, when the minimum temperature is recorded has been the warmest in the last couple of days.
| Days | Minimum temperature |
| Monday | 21°C |
| Tuesday | 22.6°C |
| Wednesday | 22.8°C |
| Thursday | 24.2°C |
| Friday | 26.2°C |
Nestled among the lofty peaks of Himalayas in Uttarakhand, Char Dhams are the four holy places of Kedarnath, Badrinath, Yamunotri and Gangotri.
The Char Dham Yatra will begin with the opening of Yamunotri and Gangotri gates on 2nd May, followed by the opening of gates of Kedarnath on 4th May, Badrinath next day and Hemkunt Sahib on 25th May. Thousands of pilgrims visit these shrines between the months of May and November every year.
After last year's natural disaster in June which left hundreds of pilgrims dead and many other missing, the pilgrimage was stopped as most of the areas remained cut off from rest of the country. Cloudbursts and massive rainfall devastated the places of tourist and pilgrims' interest including Badrinath and Kedarnath.
Calamities of this dimension do not get repeated too often but Skymet Meteorological Division in India would still like to beckon its readers to keep a tab on weather during the coming months. For now we will take a look at the weather conditions in the pre-monsoon season.
Weather in Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand receives highest amount of rain, 90 per cent of annual rainfall, during the Southwest Monsoon season followed by winter rain. The pre-monsoon season receives the least amount of rain
Development of weather this season is rapid leading to drastic change just in a span of 24 hours. The day might start on a sunny note with maximums touching low-thirties but a sudden formation of cumulonimbus clouds bringing short and sharp spell of showers leading to a drop in temperatures. In case of inclement weather maximums come down to twenties while minimums fall from teens to even 5°C.
The Western Disturbance keeps shifting and becomes less intense by the end of April, bringing only short sharp spells. The monsoon season sets in by the last week of June, unless it makes an early arrival like last year.
Safety measures
As the Char Dham and Hemkunt Sahib Yatra begins in the hill state of Uttarakhand on 2nd of May this year, the Uttarakhand government assures pilgrims of facilities and safety measures during the Yatra. According to media reports, the Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat said “as part of the safety measures and to keep better track of all pilgrims coming for Char Dham Yatra, the state government is making registration system mandatory."
The state government has also generated five base camps, 48 wayside amenities, seven ghats and 12 night shelters for the pilgrims. The Chief Minister also assured that construction of roads and infrastructure will be completed by 30th April.
A special task force embracing police and Nehru Institute of Mountaineering personnel has also been set up in Uttarkashi for the Kedarnath route with mobile towers and PCO booths erected at every 15 km along the route. Skymet Meteorology Division in India does not foresee any calamitous situation this year.
picture courtesy- joytravels
In India, agriculture is the backbone of the economy, demographically the broadest economic sector and responsible for feeding 1.25 billion mouths.
Agriculture and its allied sectors like forestry and fisheries accounted for 16.6 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009. We cannot completely ignore the centrality of agriculture just because its economic contribution to GDP has been declining and now hovers around a comparatively low of 14 per cent.
Importance of agriculture
Agriculture plays a significant role in the overall socio-economic fabric of the country despite prominence given to secondary and tertiary sectors including industrial development, during the last four decades.
Agriculture serves as raw materials for several industries including sugar, food processing, cotton and jute. It thus, plays an important role in industrial development and also as earner of foreign exchange. Agricultural products such as jute, cotton, tea, coffee, spices, tobacco, sugar, oil, cashew etc. bring valuable foreign exchange.
If we look at China which began its reform process in 1978 with agriculture, farm GDP grew by 7.1 per cent per annum during the next six years as it dismantled the commune system and price controls. Liberalization of prices was followed by a whopping growth of farm incomes, almost by 14 per cent per year. This led to China’s manufacturing revolution as demand for manufactured goods received a boost.
Before every election, the leaders of the country keep focussing on accentuating overall growth but what they forget is that the objective of accelerating growth will have insignificant meaning unless agriculture takes its deserving place in the agenda of policy reforms.
In fact India is a vast country to just depend on one model for efficiently utilising public expenditures for extending true food security and alleviating poverty. And with a below normal prediction of Monsoon in India, keeping up to the agricultural GDP growth estimate of 3.3 per cent could be a far cry.
El Nino’s effect on Agriculture GDP growth
The Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast put the Monsoon figure at 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%, which corroborated Skymet’s earlier observation of below normal rain during monsoon in India this year.
And as reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, it is a bit early to comment on El Nino effects on food prices and thus, maintain agriculture GDP growth estimate at 3.3 per cent. However, if El Nino conditions are fully factored in, the agriculture GDP growth could be lower by 250-300 basis points (bps), and the average retail inflation could see 100 bps rise, according to reliable sources.
Are policymakers responsible for food price inflation?
At times we feel the agricultural situation has been rosy since 1950 as production of food grains increased by more than five times and milk even more while, population increased by a little more than three times. We can perceive that India has produced food faster than its growth in population, thanks to the Green, White and Blue revolutions. Then why do we constantly hear about insufficient returns leading to farmers’ suicides?
Since 1997, the overall farm GDP growth rate has been at an average of 3 per cent per annum, well below the targeted rate of 4 per cent. Food price inflation has been high since the last five years and this year’s bizarre weather in India seems to be flaring this inflation in various parts of the country.
The major disconnect seems in the policies which focus on grains for food security concerns while supplies of high-value products like fruits, vegetables, milk products, eggs, meat and fish are lagging behind demand. With rising incomes people opt for nutritious food and thus, pushing up prices.
So the question arises, is it the policymakers who have been leading to a dearth of nutritious food and crippling price inflation?
picture courtesy- Bhuwanchand
