California’s wildfire season started early this year and as of 26th April, the state recorded around 1,100 fires (more than double the average of last five years), going by local media reports. California is experiencing the worst drought since the middle of 1970's.
The Etiwanda Fire kindled in the San Bernardino National Forest in southern California, near the suburban community of Rancho Cucamonga on 30th April quickly spread across more than 2,000 acres.
Controlling wildfires
The lush green Mount Baldy in southern California is nestled under the peaks of the San Gabriel Mountains and generally remains snow covered during this part of the year and if not, increases the chances of wildfires. As the bushes, grasses and trees are already ready to fire up, the local authorities are trying to mitigate the risks by safely carrying out controlled burns.
This month could look like an explosive summer wildfire season for the drought-parched California but what if we have El Nino year? Here’s the response from weather experts.
Could El Nino be beneficial for California?
El Nino reduces the frequency of Hurricanes but not their intensity or ferociousness. Statistics suggest that below normal hurricanes are observed in an El Nino Year but it does not take away the devastating potential of the tropical storms. Parts of the southwest United States of America and the Pacific Coast where California lies also experience heavy rain and floods due to hurricanes.
According to G.P. Sharma of Skymet Meteorology Division in India, El Nino is growing but not amplifying at present. However, conditions seem favourable for the system to cross the threshold and reach the 0.5 mark leading to adverse conditions across the globe including North America. El Nino causes droughts in Asian sub-continents while it leads to severe floods in both mainland and the North Atlantic and Pacific coasts.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, El Nino is evolving as of now, but is expected to get arrested towards later half of the year. There is only a 30 per cent chance of this phenomenon getting stronger.
An El Nino generally results in wetter than normal conditions in the tropical latitudes of North America. Therefore we can infer that El Nino definitely causes adverse weather conditions, shakes up climate across the world, changing rain and temperature patterns but it could provide some relief from wildfires in California.
picture courtesy- Time
With rising temperatures and increasing evaporation rates, several water reservoirs in peninsular India have started to dry up as water levels have gone down significantly since the onset of summer in March. Concerns were being raised that in absence of good amount of widespread rain, there could be severe water crisis in the region.
But the low pressure area which is approaching the extreme southern peninsular region near Comorin area and is expected to stay in the region for the next three to four days has come as a big relief for the people in this part of the country. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, such low pressure areas give more widespread rain than stronger weather systems such as tropical storms or cyclones. The latter has the tendency to dry up rain around 50 kilometers of its circumference but low pressure areas or depressions usually bring widespread rain along its path.
So, the chances of rain in Karnataka, where 93% of lakes and tanks have dried up and a grave water crisis was being foreseen due to shortage of drinking water and that for irrigation would come as a huge relief. The water crisis was also brewing in Madurai in Tamil Nadu as it was expected by the Public Works Department that the drinking water storage in Vaigai dam may not last beyond May 5. The Vaigai dam is the major source of drinking water for Madurai. Till last Sunday, water level at Vaigai dam stood at 23.46 ft with a storage of 171 mcft. With evaporation loss estimated at 5 mcft everyday, water level will not last for drinking water supply beyond May 5.
Pre-monsoon rain in South India
Pre-monsoon rain has been 19 percent below normal in Kerala from 1st March to 30th April. South interior Karnataka has received 24 percent surplus rain during this period. Telangana and north interior Karnataka have witnessed 123 and 85 percent of rain respectively, which is higher than the average for the period, while Tamil Nadu has been deficient. Rain in Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh was short by 16 percent compared to its average for the period. According to the latest weather update, rainfall records show that excluding south interior Karnataka, all the other regions had scanty or deficient rain from 24th April to 30th April.
According to Skymet Satellite images, the low pressure is closing in on Tamil Nadu and would take another 36 hours to make inland appearance off Mangalore coast in Karanataka, while moving in a northwest direction. It will then re-curve and shift north-northeastwards over south interior Karantaka. In its extended forecast, Skymet Meteorology Division in India has said that the weather system could move further, in a northeast direction to reach Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh and then shift to Odisha.
The weather system after emerging in southwest Bay of Bengal last Thursday has been instrumental in increasing rainfall in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The weather forecast by Skymet Meteorology Division in India vouches for widespread rain, heavy at some places during the next 24 hours in both these states.
The extended forecast by Skymet Meteorology Division in India which will keep tracking the weather system in the following days, indicates that the low pressure may become a depression as well depending on the time during which it remains close to Kerala coast. Chances of it becoming a depression will be less if it enters the land.
This table gives the amount of rain received at some of the places in Kerala and Tamil Nadu between 8:30 am on Tuesday to 8:30 am on Wednesday.
| Places | State | Amount of rain |
| Kanyakumari | Tamil Nadu | 118.4 mm |
| Thiruvananthapuram | Kerala | 102 mm |
| Kottayam | Kerala | 84.2 mm |
| Palayankottai | Tamil Nadu | 80 mm |
| Punalur | Kerala | 68.4 mm |
| Pamban | Tamil Nadu | 67.4 mm |
| Kodaikanal | Tamil Nadu | 60 mm |
| Alapuzha | Kerala | 46 mm |
Guar seed futures fell on reports of rains helping sowing in Rajasthan, while low export demand and high old stocks supported the correction after adverse monsoon forecast kept them on a higher side last week. Guar seed trading may be volatile as monsoon i.e. June-September rain season could turn below average this year.
