Indian Jeera or cumin seed futures rose on strong overseas enquiries and higher spot supplies. At Unjha, a key market inGujaratstate, daily average arrivals have been 20000-25000 bags (60 kg each). Gujarat is a key jeera producing state inIndia. According to the traders from Gujarat, the bullish trend will continue in jeera prices.
Indian turmeric futures rose on good demand from local and overseas buyers. But turmeric futures are seen trading weaker in the next session due to rising supplies, according to the analysts. Spot turmeric prices lost about RS 200 per quintal in Erode market as demand fromNorth Indiadropped and the quality of arrivals was poor.
Indian sugar futures were unchanged as a pick-up in the local demand off set ample supply in the major markets of key producing states. But sugar is expected to soon trade weak to range bound, according to the analysts, citing increasing supplies of the sugar in the major spot markets. The key June contract was at approximate Rs 3099 per quintal.
United States wheat extended its losing streak to hit its lowest mark since March 3, while corn fell for a third session as improved weather in theUnited Statesgrain belt boosted the outlook for supply. Spring wheat planting is getting back on track in theUnited StatesandCanadacountries. Spring wheat planting has been the key driver over the last week.
There has been much debate about the onset of Monsoon 2014. We at Skymet had forecast a 'below normal' Monsoon performance for this year and in the month of May had stated that the Monsoon is set to arrive on the 28th of May.
It is a fact that parts of South India have been witnessing rainfall since the 28th of May. As of now, most conditions (as set by the IMD) have been met for the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala, according to us.
Rainfall has now reached parts of Telangana, Rayalaseema and Karnataka, as heavy showers have been recorded over South India, including some of the major cities. This rainfall pattern has extended up to Konkan and Goa region in the last 24 hours.
Here’s a look at the rainfall figures across South India on Monday.
Andhra Pradesh – Hyderabad 47 mm, Kurnool 47 mm, Anantpur 55 mm and Ramagundam 2 mm.
Tamil Nadu – Chennai 22 mm, Karaikal 37 mm, Cuddalore 23 mm, Coimbatore 3.1 mm and Cunnoor 8.6 mm.
Karnataka – Bangalore 27.8 mm, Chitradurga 67.2 mm, Belgaum 45mm, Gulbarga 2 mm, Gadag 0.7 mm, Honawar 1.2 mm, Karwar 0.8 mm and Magalore 0.2 mm
Kerala – Punalur 4.6 mm, Kottayam 16.2, Kannur 12.6 mm, Thiruvananthapuram 5.6 mm, Kochi 10.4 mm and Alappuzha 0.5mm, Thrithala in Palakkad district 108.2 mm, Kondungallur in Thrissur district 100 mm, Ponnani in Malappuram 46.3 mm, Kuppady in Wayanad 51 mm, Cheruthazham in Kannur district 75 mm and Kasargode 34.2 mm
Konkan – Goa 11 mm and Ratnagiri 11 mm.
Among all the conditions required for the onset of Monsoon, good amounts of rain is the most important factor. Rainfall figures recorded in Kerala and Karnataka in the last few days are a clear indication that the above criteria has been fulfilled.
Monsoon usually enters Rayalaseema, Telangana and Karnataka within 4 to 5 days of its onset over Kerala and then from there it heads towards Bay of Bengal and Northeast India. This pattern has now been recorded in the last 24 hours.
While parts of Karnataka have already been witnessing heavy showers since the 28th of May, Telangana in particular observed good amounts of rain in the last 24 hours, leading to a drastic drop in temperatures, by about 9° to 10°C. Here, mercury levels were recording close to 40⁰C until last week.
Further forecasts suggest Monsoon rain is likely to continue in the southern parts of the country for 48 hours. However, the intensity of rain could diminish.
Considering that this is an El Nino year, we can not depend entirely on set methods to indicate the onset date of the Monsoon. “Effects of El Nino are well known and well-studied by weathermen across the globe by now, but what changes it might bring in the onset dates of Southwest Monsoon in India are yet to be well researched”, says AVM (Retd) G.P Sharma. “El Nino in India may not just affect the overall monsoon performance, increasing or decrease rainfall in a region, it may also have a huge impact on date of onset”, he further added.
Continuous rain in Kerala from the 28th of May till now, therefore indicates that monsoon arrived before the official date of 1st of June.
Weather records show, two El Nino years, 2012 and 2009 saw changes in the onset dates of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala. While in 2009 the date of onset was nine days before the official onset date, i.e. 23rd May, it was delayed in 2012 by about four days and arrived on the 5th of June. 2009 was a drought year with 27% below normal rainfall whereas 2012 was a year with 7% below normal rains.
This year, another change possibly brought about by El Nino, is the onset of Southwest Monsoon over Sri Lanka which was delayed by about nine days. The onset was declared yesterday as opposed to the normal onset date of 25th May. Skymet had also predicted staggered monsoon rains across East and Central India this year, signs of which are beginning to arise already.
It is indeed necessary to expect variation in weather in India due to the El Nino phenomenon as it further amplifies the truant nature of monsoon, leading to excess or deficit rainfall in different pockets. And this is why other than focusing only on effects of El Nino on the 'amount' of rainfall, there is a serious need to revise the official dates set years ago for the onset of Southwest Monsoon.
Ways of establishing the arrival of Monsoon in India are still primitive and orthodox. It would scientifically not be wise to expect a copy book onset of monsoon in India every year. Relying on fixed dates of onset or on parameters set decades ago leads to too much confusion in this day and age, hence it is imperative revise techniques and to rethink the indicators of Monsoon onset.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, here are the weather alerts issued across the country on 3rd June:
Weather alert for Tamil Nadu issued at 15:36 Hrs
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at few places in Chennai and Thiruvallur districts with strong winds of 40 kmph, gusting at 70 kmph during the next 2 to 6 hours.
Weather alert for Andhra Pradesh issued at 15:18 Hrs
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at few places in East Godavari, Visakhapatnam and Vizianagaram districts with strong winds of 40 kmph, gusting at 60 kmph during the next 2 to 6 hours.
Weather alert for Odisha issued at 14:47 Hrs
In the next 2 to 6 hours, light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at few places in Gajapati, Ganjam, Kandhamal and Rayagada districts with strong winds of 60 kmph gusting, at 80 kmph.
Weather alert for Odisha issued at 14:18 Hrs
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at few places in Balasore, Baleswar and Bhadrak districts with strong winds of 50 kmph, gusting at 70 kmph during the next 2 to 4 hours.
Weather alert for West Bengal issued at 14:31 Hrs
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely at few places in East Midnapore, Howrah, South 24 Parganas and West Midnapore districts with strong winds of 60 kmph, gusting at 80 kmph during the next 2 to 4 hours.
Weather alert for Bihar issued at 13:50 Hrs
In the next 2 to 6 hours, short spells of Dust storm/thundershowers are likely at some places in Bhagalpur, Bhojpur, Jehanabad, Lakhisarai, Madhubani, Munger, Muzaffarpur, Nalanda, Patna, Saran, Sheohar and Sitamarhi districts with strong average winds of 50 kmph, gusting at 80 kmph.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, summer conditions remained at its peak over Vidarbha region in Maharashtra. Chandrapur in the region was the hottest place in the country on Monday with a maximum of 47.2°C. Heat conditions also intensified in Rajasthan with Barmer recording 45.8°C as maximum temperature on Monday. Other than Orai in Uttar Pradesh, all the other places in the list are either from Maharashtra or Rajasthan.
| Places | State | Maximum temperature on Monday | Forecast trend for next 24 hours |
| Chandrapur | Maharashtra | 47.2°C | Drop |
| Brahmapuri | Maharashtra | 46.3°C | Drop |
| Barmer | Rajasthan | 45.8°C | Rise |
| Jalore | Maharashtra | 45°C | Drop |
| Orai | Uttar Pradesh | 45°C | Rise |
| Wardha | Maharashtra | 45°C | Drop |
| Jaisalmer | Rajasthan | 44.9°C | Rise |
| Akola | Maharashtra | 44.8°C | Drop |
| Jodhpur | Rajasthan | 44.6°C | Drop |
| Nagpur | Maharashtra | 44.6°C | Drop |
The latest weather update indicates that day temperatures may further rise at some of the places in Rajasthan while they will drop in Maharashtra.
The final of IPL7 played at the Chinnaswamy stadium in Bangalore was a cracker of a game with 199 runs being chased down by Kolkata Knight Riders who were considered to be the minnows at the start of the game. Kings XI Punjab, the favourites put up a tough fight but Manoj Pandey with his valiant knock of 95 made sure that KKR lifts the trophy.
But amidst all this euphoria, one thing that needs to be given a thought is why isn't weather also given a priority while deciding the venue of the game? It is to be noted, when the IPL final was shifted from Mumbai to Bangalore, weather agencies across the country including Skymet Meteorology Division in India had sent out weather alerts of rain in Bangalore during the IPL final. However, it was just a matter of chance that rain did not happen and the entire game went through without any hindrance and the audience got a chance to enjoy the game.
The point that is to be highlighted is that in such mega events the interest of the stake holders, audience in this case, is at risk. The importance of weather should be attached to the game to be on the safer side. There are plenty of choices in the country in terms of venues and shifting it to a place which is in the firing line of the Monsoon is never a wise move.
Rain in Bangalore
Just before the IPL final, on 31st May, Bangalore received 14 mm of rain which was accompanied by strong winds. On 2nd June, the day after the final, the city observed 28 mm of rain. Its adjoining areas like Chitradurga and Ananthapur received 67 and 57 mm of rain, respectively. Most of the weather activity happened in the evening when majority of the IPL games are played.
This clearly shows how much importance is attached to weather when such games are planned. Inclement weather not only acts as dampener for the audience but also leads to revenue loss to the owners and the cricket board.
Let’s hope such events are now planned better, especially when weather forecast is at disposal.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the national capital Delhi and adjoining areas of northwest plains could possibly see heat wave conditions for the first time this summer. The latest weather update indicates that temperatures in Delhi might touch 45°C and sustain for the next few days due to absence of any significant Western Disturbance. Delhi recorded a maximum of 39.9°C on Monday.
Similar conditions have also been observed in parts of Rajasthan with Barmer recording 45.8°C and Jaisalmer registering 44.9°C on Monday. The latest weather update indicates that the heat will now travel up to Delhi and other areas of Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh as the hot and dry westerly winds will further strengthen the grip in the region.
Maximum temperatures will also rise marginally over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand but they will remain below the normal in West Bengal due to a cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh which will bring rain during the next two days.
In central Peninsula, Chandrapur in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra recorded a maximum of 47.2°C on Monday. The latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India indicates that Vidarbha, madhya Maharashtra and Telangana are possibly witnessing the last hottest spell of the pre-monsoon season. Coastal areas of Kerala will observe day temperatures settling in the early thirties while interior Karnataka will witness mid-thirties temperature during the next two days.
