Consistent rain since the last 48 hours indicates that Southwest Monsoon has entered Northeast India and has already covered the eastern half of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Resolving debates about the onset of Monsoon 2014, Skymet Meteorology Division in India confirmed its arrival on the 28th of May, as most conditions stipulated for its onset over Kerala were largely met. The onset of Monsoon in Northeast normally coincides with Kerala and within 5 days speedily covers the entire region.
Marginal variation of ± 2 days for the onset is always granted and the variations are generally amplified during the El Nino years, when one cannot rely entirely on set methods to indicate the onset date of the Monsoon. Reiterating, El Nino in India affects the overall monsoon performance, including onset, periodic coverage and withdrawal.
Northeast India witnesses heavy downpour due to its mountainous terrain with varying heights from valleys to high hills. Monthly average rainfall during Monsoon in India even runs into four digits and thus, these places generally have the capacity to absorb any small deficiency.
In the last 24 hours, North Lakhimpur has received 47.8 mm of rain, Kailashahar 41.4 mm, Dibrugarh 4.2 mm, Tinsukia 2 mm, Passighat 4.6 mm of rain, Cherrapunji 4.6 mm, Agartala 4.4 mm.
Rainfall figures from Skymet’s weather stations installed in Assam- Rahha in Nagaun district recorded 45.71 mm, Biswanath and Naduar in Sonitpur district recorded 29.46 mm and 24.88 mm of rain, respectively.
Rain in South India
Kerala has been receiving rain since the 28th of May and the rain belt has now reached parts of Telangana, Rayalaseema, Karnataka and extended up to Ratnagiri and Goa region. In the initial phase these areas have received surplus rain. On the 3rd of May, Kozhikode recorded 27.8 mm, Thiruvananthapuram 12 mm and Visakhapatnam 24.2 mm.
Here’s a look at significant rainfall figures from the 30th of May, recorded by Skymet’s weather stations installed in Kerala-
30th May- Kulathoor in Thiruvananthapuram recorded 39.36 mm and Karadka in Kasargode 5.84 mm.
31st May- In Kozhikode, Perambra 24.88 mm, Koduvally 21.09 mm and Nadapuram 15.76 mm of rain.
1st June- Chendamangalam in Ernakulam district recorded 27.69 mm and Perambra 22. 09 mm.
2nd June- Kallar in Kasargode 34.29 mm, Chalode in Kannur 35.56 mm, Palickathode 16.25 mm and Mundathicode in Thrissur 51.8 mm.
3rd June- In Kasargode, Pallikara and Paivelige recorded 71.89 mm and 39.37 mm, respectively. In Kollam, East Kallada recorded 25.15 mm and Kulathupuzha 25.9 mm of rain. Other stations located in Thiruvananthapuram also received good showers in the last 24 hours.
Temperature profile also shows a dip in most of the places, as is expected with the onset of Monsoon. Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring rain in Kerala, Telangana and Karnataka but model data at Skymet indicates diminishing intensity.
While Maharashtra legislature's monsoon session is likely to be stormy, the actual monsoon might not be that strong. After Southwest Monsoon reached Kerala, Telangana and Northeast India, weathermen and agriculturists across the country now have their eyes on monsoon in the state of Maharashtra. And according to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, barring coastal Maharashtra, Monsoon this year is going to be below normal in all other sub divisions, namely: Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra.
Earlier in April Skymet had released its Monsoon foreshadow for 2014, where it confirmed the coming Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ at 94% (error margin of ± 4%) of the long period average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September due to an El Nino year. The foreshadow talked about a possible weakness in monsoon in majority subdivisions in Northwest India (Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana) and West-Central India (East MP, West MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharshtra, Konkan & Goa, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana) during the whole season.
Further, the date for the onset of Monsoon in Mumbai was predicted to be 7th - 8th June (with an error margin of ± 4%). And so far it looks like Southwest Monsoon will hit Mumbai around the same date. Considering the presence of an El Nino and bizarre weather conditions, we shouldn't rely entirely on copy book onset dates of Monsoon in India, reiterate our weathermen. The official Indian Meteorology Division date for the onset of monsoon over Mumbai is 10th June.
Understanding distribution of rainfall over Maharashtra from June to September:
Meteorologically, Maharashtra is divided into four divisions, which are Konkon and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha.
Parts of coastal Maharashtra such as Mumbai and Ratnagiri fall in Konkon and Goa. Madhya Maharashtra covers Pune, Nashik, Kolapur and Solapur. Marathwada includes Aurangabad, Nanded, Beed and Parbhani. Vidarbha comprises of Akola, Chandrapur, Nagpur and Wardha
Weather records show a stark contrast in the rainfall figures between the four sub-divisions from the period of June to September. While the Konkon & Goa division gets a whopping 2800 mm of rain on an average, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada receive 700 mm and 704 mm of rain respectively. Vidarbha on the other hand gets the second highest rainfall of about 980 mm.
Between these four months, June and September are classified into months of little rain, while July and August are put under the category of the rainiest months. Konkon & Goa receives 1068 mm of rain out of the total 2800 mm received from July to August. Marathwada and Vidarbha receive 200 and 300 mm of rainfall respectively. Madhya Maharashtra receives the lowest rainfall of just about 190 mm in the rainiest months of July and August.
The reason for this variation among these sub-divisions is simple. Konkan & Goa lies in the uphill side of Western Ghats, therefore facing the maximum brunt of the monsoon air mass. Moisture from the Arabian Sea further feeds moisture to this region. But Pune and Solapur in Madhya Maharashtra, lying in the leeward side of the Western Ghats observe little rainfall when it's pouring in the capital city Mumbai. And since Vidarbha stands first in the firing line of the weather systems from the Bay of Bengal, rainfall amounts remain higher than that in Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada.
Southwest monsoon, the lifeline of Indian agriculture, is vital as almost 55 percent of the total arable land in the country is rainfed. Maharashtra is an aggro sensitive state which has already faced the wrath of weird weather since the start of the year. Frequent hailstorms in Maharashtra in the last four months caused irreparable damage to fruit crops in the state, with Nashik alone suffering a loss of over Rs 20,000 crore.
“Maharashtra already observes a large variability in the weather patterns and an El Nino will put it at further risk this monsoon season”, says AVM (Retd) G.P Sharma.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the heat wave like conditions prevailing in northwest plains could get worse as westerly winds will further strengthen its grip over major parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh during the next two days.
Day temperature soared past 44°C at several weather stations in Rajasthan with Jaisalmer recording 45.8°C. Day temperatures in excess of 42°C were recorded in Amritsar, Ludhiana and Patiala in Punjab while Hisar and Gurgaon were the hottest in Haryana with 44 and 42.9°C as maximum temperature respectively. In west Uttar Pradesh, Agra was the hottest place with maximum recording 43.6°C, while Aligarh recorded 42.8°C as maximum temperature on Tuesday.
The westerly winds also turned the heat on east Uttar Pradesh where Allahabad recorded 44°C while Varanasi registered 42°C as day temperatures on Tuesday. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, maximum could rise further in east Uttar Pradesh. Bihar will get some reprieve from the heat in form of easterly winds blowing from the Bay of Bengal.
Central India will also remain hot as maximum temperatures will rise again in Gwalior, Bhopal, Indore and Jabalpur on Wednesday and Thursday as westerly winds will continue to prevail in the region. Bhuj in Gujarat recorded a maximum of 44.6°C on Tuesday. And according to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India there will no be any relief from the heat in cities including Ahmedabad, Amreli, Idar and Rajkot for the next 48 hours.
With Monsoon reaching up to Telangana wind conditions have changed the weather in South India. Instead of dry winds, the peninsular region is now observing moist southerly to southwesterly winds. Monsoon clouds have brought significant drop in day temperatures over Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Maximums are recording three to five notches below normal in Andhra Pradesh, while they are below normal by up to six degrees at some of the weather stations like Bellary and Chitradurga in Karnataka. Day temperatures will continue to maintain their below normal streak during the next two days in South India, said Skymet Meteorology Division in India on Wednesday.
