According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Mumbai will witness some light patchy rain tomorrow. Bangalore and Hyderabad will also receive thundershowers towards the later part of the day. Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai will remain hot and dry. Here’s a look at the weather forecast for major Indian cities on Wednesday, 11th June.
| Cities | Maximum Temperature | Minimum Temperature | Conditions |
| Delhi | 45°C | 28°C | Heat wave conditions like to continue due to dry northwesterly winds. Night too will be very warm. |
| Mumbai | 35°C | 29°C | Cloudy skies could enhance chances of rain. A windy night likely. |
| Kolkata | 37°C | 29°C | Morning will be cheerful but the day remains hot and sultry. |
| Chennai | 37°C | 27°C | High humidity will bother people all day. Day will be warm and night too will not provide any relief. |
| Bangalore | 28°C | 21°C | Morning and evening to be pleasant. Light thundershowers likely. |
| Hyderabad | 37°C | 27°C | A hot and humid day with chances of light rain in isolated pockets. |
Photo by Ritika Acharya
The Indian Meteorological Department in its second phase of long range forecast update for Southwest Monsoon 2014, released on Monday, has put rainfall for the country as a whole at 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 4%. Earlier in April, IMD had put it at 95% of the LPA ± 5%. This shift in rainfall figures further strengthens the fact that Monsoon rain in India is going to be deficit as reiterated by Skymet.
The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of its LPA during July and 96% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9%. The trend given by IMD is in good agreement with the Monsoon foreshadow released by Skymet in April, where we had put July rainfall at 94% of the LPA and August rainfall at 98% of the LPA.
Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 85% of LPA over Northwest India, 94% of LPA over Central India, 93% of LPA over South Peninsula and 99% of LPA over Northeast India all with a model error of ± 8%, said IMD.
Though the rainfall figure of 93% for the country as a whole might not look alarming, the region wise rainfall does raise a lot of apprehension. For example the season rainfall given by IMD for Northwest India is 85% of the LPA with a model error of ± 8% which means it could fall down to 77% taking the model error into consideration at worst. This certainly would create drought situation in a lot of places in Northwest India.
This is exactly what Skymet had said in its Monsoon Foreshadow released in April. We had said that majority of subdivisions in Northwest (Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana) and West-Central India (East MP, West MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa, North Interior Karnataka and Telangana) will observe weak rain during the whole season. Some places may also witness severe drought conditions.
Interestingly, below normal and deficit rain put together by IMD is now 71% as opposed to 56% earlier. The following table shows a comparison between what IMD had forecast in April with their latest forecast.
| Category | Rainfall Range(% of LPA) | Latest Forecast(%) | April forecast(%) |
| Deficit | < 90 | 33 | 23 |
| Below Normal | 90-96 | 38 | 33 |
| Normal | 96-104 | 26 | 35 |
| Above Normal | 104-110 | 3 | 8 |
| Excess | > 110 | 0 | 1 |
According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for June, July, August and September released in April were:
Other than Northwest and West Central India, Northeast is another region that will witness below normal rain, according to Skymet. However, it will not make much of a difference as rain deficit to the tune of 10 to 15% can easily get absorbed due to its terrain with its varying heights from valleys to high hills.
The cyclonic circulation over northeast Bay of Bengal, close to Myanmar coast has enhanced the monsoon surge over Northeast India.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather system will continue to bring Monsoon rain, from scattered to fairly widespread and light to moderate rainfall over Northeast India.
Weather models at Skymet suggest that Southwest Monsoon has completely covered Northeastern states along with adjoining Sub Himalayan West Bengal. Conditions seem favourable for Southwest monsoon to advance to more parts of Bengal and Bihar.
In the last 24 hours, rainfall has picked up in Northeast India, here’s a look…
In Assam Dhubri received 151 mm of rain, North Lakhimpur 33 mm, Barpeta 5 mm, Tejpur has received 5.4 mm and Silchar 6.2 mm.
Rain in other places of Northeast India and adjoining Sub Himalayan West Bengal- Passighat received 29 mm, Cherrapunji 72 mm, Coochbehar 25.4 mm, Darjeeling 10.3 mm, Gangtok 5.7 mm,
Northeast India is a weather sensitive pocket and is specially known for deluge on account of incessant rains. But in the recent past, the region has been observing below normal rainfall, both in pre-monsoon and Southwest Monsoon season, albeit with few exceptions.
Since Northeast India witnesses heavy downpour during the Monsoon months, these places generally have the capacity to absorb any small deficiency. Monthly average rainfall during Monsoon in India even runs into four digits due to its mountainous terrain with varying heights from valleys to high hills.
Weather models at Skymet suggest that this year Monsoon will be near normal in this part of the country. Hence, parts of Northeast India should be prepared to battle flash floods this Monsoon.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Churu replaced Sriganganagar to emerge as the hottest place in the country with a maximum of 48.3°C recorded on Monday. The list shows that Palam in Delhi maintained its third hottest place tag on Monday as well with a maximum of 47.6°C. Meanwhile, Amritsar is featuring in the list of top ten hottest places in India for the first time.
| Places | State | Maximum temperature on Monday | Forecast trend for next 24 hours |
| Churu | Rajasthan | 48.3°C | Drop |
| Sriganganagar | Rajasthan | 48°C | Drop |
| Palam | Delhi | 47.6°C | Drop |
| Satna | Madhya Pradesh | 47.6°C | Drop |
| Gurgaon | Haryana | 47.6°C | Drop |
| Banda | Uttar Pradesh | 47.6°C | Drop |
| Chandrapur | Maharashtra | 47.3°C | Rise |
| Amritsar | Punjab | 47°C | Same |
| Hisar | Haryana | 47°C | Drop |
| Nowgong | Maharashtra | 47°C | Drop |
According to Skymet other than Amritsar and Chandrapur, day temperatures are expected to fall at rest of the places in the list.
Photograph by Jovianeye
Variation in rainfall figures among different sub divisions of Maharashtra is heard off but a stark contrast in the weather between them is not so common. Looks like the dreaded El Nino has already started to show its effect on Maharashtra, as a part of the state is seen getting good showers, while the other is sweltering under heat wave conditions.
According to the latest weather update Skymet Meteorology Division in India, in the last 24 hours Vidarbha continued to sizzle at 45⁰C, while light showers of up to 4 mm was recorded in Pune, lying on the leeward side of the Western Ghats. Ratnagiri along Maharashtra coast also got rain of below 1 mm for the second consecutive day. Besides this, sudden spot rain of approximately 60 mm lashed the city of Aurangabad in Marathwada in a span of 4 to 5 hours.
With many parts of Maharashtra receiving rain on Monday evening, all eyes are now set on the capital city Mumbai, where according to our weathermen conditions look favorable for patchy isolated rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain in Mumbai will pick up, becoming fairly moderate, from 12th June onwards and could continue for about two to three days. It is during the same period that Saurashtra region will witness some rain.
Rain will be due to the weather system in the Arabian Sea which until 48 hours back was seen as a well-marked low, but has now turned into a tropical cyclone. Though it is travelling away from the Indian coast towards Oman and Gulf of Eden it will give good amounts of rain.
So far the weather in Mumbai has been partly cloudy with a maximum of 35.3⁰C, recorded on Monday, 9th June. Humidity has also been around 80%. On Tuesday, till 11:30 am the maximum temperature in Mumbai had touched 36⁰C and the wind speed was strong of about 40 kmph.
Maximums in other cities of Maharashtra on Monday looked like this: Aurangabad remained overcast at 38.7⁰C, Amravati was bright and sunny at 45.4⁰C and Chandrapur in Vidarbha was the hottest city at 47.3⁰C. Heat wave conditions prevailed in Wardha too, where the day’s maximum recorded 46⁰C.
And light isolated rainfall due to a change in the wind flow, predicted around the mid of this week in parched cities of Vidarbha, may bring little change in the soaring temperatures.
“Occurences of weird weather phenomenon’s have indeed increased in the last few month and an El Nino could further aggravate matters. June is a month when temperatures in Maharashtra on a whole settle in the thirties but parts of Vidarbha are still seen burning in intense heat. It is the night temperature that is hovering in the thirties and the day is consistently baking at 45⁰C”, says AVM (Retd) G.P Sharma.
The Safdarjang Observatory recorded 45.5°C on Monday making it the hottest day in the national capital in last ten years. The temperature was six notches above normal for the month. The other Observatory at Palam again clocked 47.6°C on Monday after registering 47.8°C on Sunday, the hottest day in last 62 years. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, some relief from the ongoing heat wave could be expected on 12th and 13th of June.
This is the hottest and longest spell of summer in Delhi this year. Maximum temperatures have consistently been recording between 44 and 45°C for last five days.
Meanwhile, the weather system in the Arabian Sea will change wind conditions in Delhi from westerly to southwesterly for some time. These winds will help in pulling down temperatures for the next two days. There are possibility of dust or thunder storms also on 12th and 13th June due to mixing of hot and dry winds from northwest direction and moist winds from the Arabian Sea.
People in different parts of the city continue to be affected by long power cuts due to damages of transmission lines during a storm last fortnight. The Union Power Minister Piyush Goyal will meet Delhi LG Najeeb Jung as well as other senior government officials on Tuesday to discuss the ongoing power shortage in the state.
“Preliminary inquires suggest problems of transmission, distribution in Delhi. I have called the Lt Governor to address this," the minister told reporters earlier today morning.
Several areas in the city witnessed demonstrations against power outages that lasted for several hours and the consequential irregular water supply. Political parties, too, are taking pot shots at each other for the power crisis.
Photograph by FlickreviewR
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Punjab, Haryana, east Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh continued to swelter under intense heat on Monday.
Amritsar in Punjab recorded a maximum of 47°C, while Ludhiana recorded 46.4°C. Hisar in Haryana recorded 47.1°C, month's second highest maximum temperature. Gurgaon too was hot and recorded 47.6°C as maximum on Monday.
In Rajasthan, Churu registered 48.3 °C as maximum, while Sriganganagar recorded 48°C. Bikaner recorded 46.8°C, Kota 46.4°C, Jaipur 46.2°C and Pilani 45.6°C. Barmer and Jaisalmer recorded 45.4°C.
In Jammu & Kashmir, Jammu, the winter capital observed the hottest day of the season with maximum settling at 44°C and minimum 27.9°C.
Banda in Uttar Pradesh recorded the highest maximum temperature in the state at 47.6°C. Jhansi at 46.8°C, Agra 46.4°C and Aligarh 45.6°C were the other hottest places in Uttar Pradesh.
According to Skymet weather forecast, the weather system (a low pressure area) in Arabian Sea will bring changes in the wind conditions in northwest plains, dropping the temperature marginally. There would also be chances of dust or thunderstorms in these parts around 12th and 13th June. The weather system is already affecting some parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat where day temperatures have dropped due to these winds from the Arabian Sea.
In East India, east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas of Bihar would be hot and dry while Gangetic West Bengal will get moist winds that will keep the temperatures in control.
In Central India, day temperatures in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh would continue to remain above normal. Several places including, Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur and Raipur will observe maximums settling in the range of 43 to 44°C.
Vidarbha in central Peninsular region again witnessed extremely hot weather with Chandrapur recording a maximum of 47.3°C, eight notches above normal. Nagpur recorded 46.2°C as maximum on Monday. Skymet weather forecast indicates drop in temperatures during the next 48 hours.
