Skymet weather

Mumbai records hottest day in a decade; rain likely as ‘Nanauk’ moves away

With memories of light rain in Mumbai on 4th June beginning to fade already, Mumbaikars are now getting eager for rains. Almost half of June has gone by and there has been only 2 mm of rain so far. Clouds formed in Mumbai on Tuesday afternoon, but disappointed the people as there wasn't any weather activity in terms of rain.

Absence of rain in Mumbai has lead to mercury level rising by about five notches. The day temperature recorded in the city on Tuesday was 38⁰C, highest in the last ten years in the month of June. With humidity at 70% and minimum temperature of 30.2⁰C, night was also very warm and uncomfortable. The highest maximum in Mumbai before this was 37.1⁰C on 15th June, 1995.

Till 12:00 pm on Wednesday, the mercury has already touched 37⁰C in Mumbai. The wind speed seems to be strong of about 25 to 30 kmph, gusting at 40 kmph.

But there is good news for the city of dreams. According to the later weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the hot and humid weather in Mumbai is expected to turn rainy very shortly as Cyclone Nanauk in the Arabian Sea is expected to move farther away from the Indian coast. Currently Cyclone Nanauk is 650 km southwest of Mumbai. Click here to read more on Nanauk.

Weathermen at Skymet tell us that there are chances of light patchy rain in the city on Wednesday which could increase to become fairly moderate on Thursday. Rain in Mumbai is expected to increase further on Friday.

“Conditions looked favorable for light patchy rain in Mumbai on Tuesday, as cluster of clouds were seen forming around 3 pm. The wind speed was also quite strong which could have aided in rain, but it didn't happen”, says meteorologist Mahesh Palawat.

So far the rain belt has reached other cities of Maharashtra, bringing good amounts of rain. In the last 24 hours, Ratnagiri and Nashik received 8 mm and 12 mm of rain respectively. Rain was the highest in Yeotmal of about 20 mm. Pune on the other hand received only 0.8 mm of rainfall. Aurangabad which received 60 mm of rain on Monday, remained dry on Tuesday.

Severe cyclonic storm Nanauk to spare Indian coast

The tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea has turned into a severe cyclonic storm named ‘Nanauk’, centred at latitude 16.9°N and 67.1°E longitude at 00UTC, with an estimated speed of 100 kmph gusting at 130 kmph.

Storms are generally classified under 4 following categories, primarily taking into account the wind field in the core of the storm-

  • Cyclonic storm- 62 to 88 kmph
  • Severe Cyclonic storm- 89 to 117 knmp
  • Very Severe Cyclonic storm- 118 to 221 kmph
  • Super Cyclone- 222 and above

The storm under purview needs to sustain winds of more than 118 kmph to be termed as a very severe cyclonic storm.

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the system is taking a northwestward direction and moving at a speed of 15 kmph. Nanauk at present is around 650 km southwest of Mumbai over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to intensify further but not pose any threat to the Indian coast as it will keep moving away towards Oman and Gulf of Eden.

The storm will lose its strength when it moves close to Oman or makes a landfall after about 3-4 days. Intensity of rain is expected to increase thereafter, over the western coast and gradually expanding to cover Saurashtra as well.

Monsoon outburst affected

The Bay of Bengal is supposed to be more active during the onset phase of Monsoon and cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea around this time is not a very common phenomenon. Any Monsoon activity over the Bay enhances the overall performance of Monsoon in India but the ones occurring in the Arabian Sea controls the monsoon current and keeps all the moisture under its grip. They influence the wind pattern and obstruct the free flow of westerly currents, required for good Monsoon rain.

Systems developing in the Arabian Sea are punched with energy drawn from the Ocean and bring torrential rain over the peripheral of the system. Compensation of this energy takes time, thus, leading to a delay of the actual outburst of Monsoon in South India. This could be an instantaneous reason for absence of rain over Mumbai. As the present system loses its grip, which could take about another 3 to 4 days, the city is likely to receive good showers.

Nevertheless, the system has been bringing Monsoon showers all along the western coast of South India. On Tuesday, Nashik received 11.6 mm of rain, Ratnagiri 7.7 mm, Yeotmal 20.2 mm, Mangalore 17.5 mm, Punalur 23.3 mm and Karwar 54 mm.

The Monsoon surge in the Arabian Sea took its course just as predicted by Skymet and turned into the first tropical cyclone of the season. Skymet has been keeping its readers updated with the developments of the system right from its inception to developing into a well-marked low pressure area, then intensifying into a depression and further into a deep depression. Finally it turned into the first tropical cyclone of the season on Tuesday and now to a severe cyclonic storm.

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