The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Aurangabad, Bhopal, Shivpuri, Alwar and Bikaner. We can clearly see in the figure above that the western arm of NLM, passing through Veraval and Surat, in Gujarat, has been stagnant since 15th of June. Consequently, the state has not received any rain and the cumulative deficiency has mounted to 92%. Saurashtra and Kutch is also facing a deficit of 83%.
By 15th June, Southwest Monsoon generally covers Saurashtra and north Gujarat. It is true that the progress from Saurashtra to Kutch is generally slow but by 1st of July we observe good rain over Kutch. A poor scenario is in sight for Gujarat as Monsoon rain over the state has been delayed beyond a limit of repair.
In 2013, Kutch received 64% excess rainfall while the plains recorded 31% excess Monsoon rain. Only light rain is in the offing for the state and looking at the present scenario it could be the driest state this El Nino year. As reiterated by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, a powerful El Nino spells trouble for India, which often faces below normal rain and drought.
After the Monsoon foreshadow released in April, Skymet came out with its update of long range forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2014 on the 4th of July. According to it, the rainfall figure of 91% for the country as a whole is worrisome as the inbuilt error of -4% increases the chance of drought in the country to 60%.
As can be seen in the picture above, the regional distribution seemed even more alarming, with 80% chances of drought in Northwest India (where Gujarat comes), 75% in Central India and 50% over South India.
Gujarat awaits Monsoon
With temperatures around 5⁰C above normal, Gujarat yearns for Monsoon rain. On Wednesday, maximum temperatures in Ahmedabad and Baroda were 5⁰C above normal average at 39.9⁰C and 38⁰C, respectively. Rajkot was also 4⁰C above normal at 38.2⁰C.
Looking at the temperature profile we can say that the temperatures here are not exceeding 40⁰C like in Rajasthan and northwest Madhya Pradesh. This could be attributed to the free flow of moist south westerly winds coming from the sea. But in absence of any obstruction, these winds are not bringing enough rain.
As a precursor to Monsoon onset, the state could receive very light rain in the coming days.
Heat wave conditions continue in several parts of Rajasthan, adjoining Haryana, Delhi, northwest Madhya Pradesh and some pockets of south west Uttar Pradesh. On Wednesday, maximum temperature of 43.4°C was recorded at Churu, Khajuraho(43.8⁰C), Nowgong (44.0⁰C) and Sheopur (43.0⁰C)
Rajasthan, adjoining Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh still haven’t been enclosed by the northern limit of Monsoon. Monsoon line has reached north Rajasthan, touching Bikaner, but rain is yet to occur in the parched state. Southwest Monsoon generally covers west Rajasthan by 15th July, therefore cities here are just about 2⁰C above normal. But temperatures in places like Kota and Jaipur (6⁰C and 7⁰C above normal, respectively) in the eastern side should have come down by now.
The state of Rajasthan remained the hottest in the country, recording more than 40⁰C in cities like Kota (41.4⁰C), Jaisalmer (40.5⁰C), Jaipur (41.9⁰C) and Bikaner (42⁰C).
Day temperatures are rising above 40⁰C even in areas where Southwest Monsoon has reached in parts of Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.
Delhi is certainly feeling the heat as maximum temperatures have risen from 37⁰C on Sunday to 40.5⁰C on Wednesday, due to lack of Monsoon rain. While maximum at Safdarjung Observatory was 5⁰C above normal average, Palam at 42.4⁰C was 7⁰C above normal.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather in Rajasthan and adjoining areas like northwest Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Haryana is expected to be hot and dry in the coming days, as the moist south westerlies are reaching only up to southern parts of Rajasthan.
Delhi could receive light rain late Sunday evening or next morning but Rajasthan and adjoining areas will remain parched.
Indian turmeric futures dropped as the monsoon revived in key producing southern states, though dwindling supplies limited downside. Turmeric prices ruled low at Erode spot markets due to lack of demand. Many farmers are holding back turmeric, expecting that price will touch Rs 8500-9000 per quintal in August or September.
The Coffee Board has projected a record crop of 3.44 Lakh Tonnes (LT) for the new season beginning this October. According to the Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimate, Arabica output will be 1.05 LT and Robusta 2.34 LT. This is against a revised estimate of 3.04 LT this season ending September (1.02 LT Arabica and 2.02 LT Robusta).
Till date, rice has been sown or transplanted on 45.12 lakh hectares area in key producing states of India. As per the latest reports of sowing of kharif crops in India, sowing area has crossed 182.40 lakh hectares, according to the Agriculture Ministry. This year delay in monsoon adversely impacted rice transplanting activities.
United States maize crop conditions held steady, maize ratings at a 15-year high, during the past week with ample soil moisture and warm weather providing near ideal conditions for growth. The good crop conditions have weighed on futures prices as each ratings report has bolstered expectations of a bumper harvest in the fall.
Weather alert for coastal Maharashtra issued at 17.20 hrs
Heavy to very heavy rain and thundershowers likely at many places over coastal Maharashtra during the next 72 hours.
Weather alert for Uttarakhand issued at 17.00 hrs
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers likely over Dehradun, Haridwar, Tehri Garhwal and Uttarkashi districts of Uttarakhand with strong winds ranging between 30 kmph and 50 kmph during next 1 to 4 hours.
Weather alert for Andhra Pradesh issued at 17.00 hrs
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers likely over East Godavari, Srikakulam, Vishakhapatnam and Vizianagaram districts of Andhra Pradesh with strong winds ranging between 50 kmph and 70 kmph during the next 2 to 6 hours.
Weather alert for Madhya Pradesh issued at 16.50 hrs
Short spells of rain and thundershowers likely over Dewas, Narsinghpur, Raisen, Sagar, Shajapur and Vidisha districts of Madhya Pradesh with strong winds ranging between 40 kmph and 60 kmph during the next 2 to 6 hours.
Weather alert for Jharkhand issued at 16.35 hrs
Light to moderate rain and thundershowers are likely over Dumka, East Singhbhum, Jamtara and West Singhbhum districts of Jharkhand with strong winds ranging between 50 kmph and 70 kmph during the next 2 to 3 hours.
According to the latest weather update rain occurred in many parts of the country in the last 24 hours. Cherrapunji was the rainiest place in India. Skymet Meteorology Division in India forecasts decrease in rainfall activity over Meghalaya for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, coastal Maharashtra will continue to receive good rainfall on Thursday which may increase further in the next couple of days.
Here’s our list of top ten rainiest cities on Tuesday.
| Cities | State | Rainfall (in millimetres) |
| Cherrapunji | Meghalaya | 219 |
| Long Island | Andaman & Nicobar Islands | 90 |
| Port Blair | Andaman & Nicobar | 90 |
| Chandrapur | Maharashtra | 70 |
| Bhira | Maharashtra | 70 |
| Adilabad | Andhra Pradesh | 60 |
| Golpara | Assam | 50 |
| Machilipatnam | Andhra Pradesh | 50 |
| Mumbai | Maharashtra | 50 |
| Bir | Maharashtra | 50 |
