Skymet weather

Reasons behind weak performance of Southwest Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon has been extremely weak this year with rain deficiency mounting across the country. Southwest Monsoon this year apparently ushered in a little early around 28-29th of May as monsoonal rain was visible around this date.  However, Monsoon made a sluggish start this year with subdued activity in the initial phase and made a very slow advancement. The onset of Monsoon phase should normally witness significant rain but this year the actual outburst of Southwest Monsoon was missing.

The Monsoon line (Northern limit of Monsoon), is way behind the normal course and after passing through Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Wasim, Damoh and  Sultanpur on 21st June, continues to be stagnant. Monsoon will cover Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh by the end of June or the first week of next month but rain will remain subdued. Progress of the line does not look bright and this month will leave us with an alarming deficiency.

Weak Monsoon Performance

As of now the national cumulative average Monsoon rain is deficient by a whopping 37%. While Northwest India is deficient by 45%, Central India is even more than 50%. These regions performed rather poorly as compared to southern peninsula and East & Northeast India. The state of Gujarat is reeling under extreme dry weather conditions and the deficit here has mounted to 84% from 78% till 17th June. Similarly, even Rajasthan is facing a deficit of about 60%.

Among the 36 sub-divisions in India, only 9 places have received normal rainfall (± 20%) till date. With 8% surplus rain, Sub Himalayan West Bengal has shown the best performance followed by Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Kerala and Karnataka coasts have been among the main centres of rain activity in the last few days. But the Monsoon surge has been week over Mumbai for over a week now and the last time the city observed some good showers was on 16th June when 32 mm of rain was recorded at Santa Cruz.

Reasons cited for mounting rain deficit

El Nino

El-Nino is a phenomenon which emerges after a gap of every 3 to 7 years and affects rainfall in India during the Monsoon. Due to more heating, warm waters off Western coast of South America increase the sea surface temperatures above normal by 0.5⁰C. This process leads to diversion of moist winds from the Indian Ocean towards the western coast of South America, thus reducing the amount of rainfall in Indian sub-continent during the year of its emergence.

El Nino in India may not just affect the overall Monsoon performance, increasing or decreasing rainfall in a region, but also impacts the date of onset.

Monsoon trough

With the onset of Monsoon in India, a trough extending from Ganganagar across Allahabad to the Bay of Bengal makes an appearance. We call this a Monsoon trough as the Southwest Monsoon covers the entire country. Surprisingly, the trough gave a miss this year.

Nanauk

Monsoon systems, like Nanauk in the Arabian Sea, possess fundamental role, particularly during the initial days of the onset of Monsoon in India. As the tropical cyclone was punched with energy drawn from the Ocean, it brought torrential rain over the peripheral of the system in the Arabian Sea. The system was outward bound and took away all the energy from the area leading to a delay of the actual outburst of Monsoon in South India.

Whether in the Arabian Sea or the South China Sea, such a system mops up all the moisture and carries it away from the Indian coast. The effects of such a system can be offset only if there is a strong system in the Bay of Bengal. On the other hand, systems that come up in the Bay of Bengal holds moisture and drifts them towards the eastern coast.

Cyclonic circulations in Bay of Bengal-

The Bay of Bengal is supposed to be more active during the onset phase of Monsoon. Any activity over the Bay enhances the overall performance of Monsoon in India.

Only one system brewed up this month over Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal but remained active only for a day and became insignificant thereafter. Normally, such systems travel north westwards carrying moisture across Odisha, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, another cyclonic circulation can be seen appearing over the Bay, causing clouding over the region and bringing good Monsoon rain over Northeast India and adjoining Sub Himalayan West Bengal.

Depressions and Lows-

Monsoon is driven by low pressure areas and depressions and on an average from June to September at least 6 depressions and lows, which may not manifest into depressions, develop in the Bay of Bengal.

In 2013, 16 low pressures were formed while in the previous year there were 10. 2011 and 2010 observed 11 and 14 low pressure areas, respectively during the Monsoon season. Around 20 to 25% of these systems occur in the month of June but this year there has been no good depression or low pressure area to take the Monsoon current further.

The Monsoon season also witnesses frequent appearances of cyclonic circulations in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, originating both over the land, i.e. in-situ, and the sea.

Weak Monsoon looms large as government prepares for budget

The forecast of weak Monsoon in India this year has been weighing heavy on the Finance Ministry which is set to present the Budget 2014 on 10th July. The aim would be to pull the country out from the slow growth rate, high inflation levels and industrial and infrastructural shorts comings.

Aware of the upcoming challenges, the new Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has indicated that government is committed to fiscal consolidation. “We have to revive India’s economy. We have to restore the investment cycle. We have to give particular emphasis to low-cost manufacturing. India missed the first industrial revolution. It missed the bus for manufacturing decades ago,” Jaitley said, while intervening on the debate on the motion of thanks to the president in Parliament.

“It is on the verge of missing the revolution on becoming a hub for low-cost manufacturing. This is the last opportunity and we cannot afford to spoil it. We have to spend a large part of natural resources on both social and physical infrastructure. We have to unleash the potential of Indian entrepreneurial spirits,” the FM had said.

Leading up to the announcement of weak Monsoon both by government agencies and private forecasters including Skymet, the new Central government is already gearing up with action as it has asked its ministries and departments to prepare contingency plans.

“Faced with a drought like situation in many parts of the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, last Wednesday directed key ministries such as Agriculture, Water Resources and Fertilisers to chalk out contingency plans for nine states which are likely to be affected the most, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, all key food grain producing provinces.” reported the New Indian Express citing a high-level meeting in New Delhi.

The meeting was attended, among others, by Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, Water Resources Minister Uma Bharati, Fertiliser Minister Ananth Kumar and Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh.

The report further said that Modi, in a review meeting on rural economy on 13th June, had directed that the situation in the nine states and the 500 districts should be monitored and crop planting to be tracked. If needed, states such as Bihar and Jharkhand have been asked to present their needs from the Centre, which would be considered and demand fulfilled,” sources said to the New Indian Express.

The economic situations could also be grave due to the geopolitical crisis in Iraq, the biggest crude oil exporter to India. This fear has already been expressed by Mukesh Ambani when he said that the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, especially the ongoing crisis in Iraq will increase crude oil prices which in turn will spike inflation. He said this at the 106th annual general meeting of Indian Merchants Chamber last week as reported by the Economic times.

According to the report, Crude oil prices have gone up by four per cent as the civil war has engulfed Iraq and some analysts believe that if the crisis worsens it could jack up India's oil import bill by over USD 20 billion this fiscal, at close to USD 200 billion.

Latest update on El-Nino and Southwest Monsoon

As per the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, rain deficit is 37 per cent till now across the country after the onset along the Kerala coast. And the scenario does not look any better as the sea surface temperature in east Pacific Ocean has reached the threshold of 0.5 degrees above the normal and if it sustains for August and September, appearance of El-Nino could be announced.

 

Photograph by Yespunjab.com

Pune, Hyderabad facing drought like situation; June driest in a decade

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the El Nino phenomenon has made June one of the driest Monsoon months in the country in the last ten years, leading to way below normal rainfall at various places. Pune and Hyderabad in particular have been facing drought like conditions with the longest and driest spell in the so called wet month of June. Here’s an elaborate look at the rain situation in the two cities so far:

Pune: Pune is known for its dull gloomy skies and continuous drizzle in the Monsoon season. June is a month when Puneites do not step out without an umbrella to be safe from sudden rain, however, this year they kept their umbrellas unused. The normal rainfall in Pune in the month of June is 116 mm but the city has received only 14 mm of rain so far. This is in stark contrast to previous years (2013, 2010, 2005) when rainfall figures in the month of June have often exceeded 250 mm.

The last time Pune received any rain was on 17th June, which was mere 0.2 mm. The highest amount of rainfall recorded so far is 5 mm on 4th June. Prior to this, 13 mm of rain on 18th June, 2012 was the lowest recorded in Pune in a span of 24 hours in the last ten years.

“It looks unlikely that Pune will receive any rain this week. By then June will come to an end and there will hardly be any addition to the rain figures. Therefore, June 2014 could easily be termed as the driest month in a decade. So far the total amount of rain received in the month of June this year is below 20 mm, which falls short of 34.5 mm recorded in 2012, the lowest in a decade”, says AVM (Rtd) G.P Sharma.

In addition to less amounts rain, Pune also recorded the hottest day of the month (10th June, 2014) in a decade as the maximum rose to a scorching 40.4⁰C. The previous record was 38.6⁰C, recorded on 7th June, 2007.

Hyderabad: June in Hyderabad is technically a drier month out of the four Monsoon months of June, July, August and September. However, the city still witnesses comfortable weather with normal rainfall of about 100 mm. Maximums and minimums also settle around comfortable levels of 35⁰C and 24⁰C respectively. But the El Nino has cast such a spell in the city that June is going to end up as the driest month in a decade, drier than in other El Nino years of 2009 and 2012.

Hyderabad is experiencing the driest spell (no rain for days together) since 4th June till now. The last time it received any rain was on 3rd June which was just traces. Hyderabad has approximately 8 rainy days in June, which reduced to 6 in 2012. This year the number of rainy days have only been 4.

So far the city of Nawabs has had only one good spell of rain which was 47 mm on 2nd June. This makes June the second driest in the last ten years with a monthly total rainfall of 50 mm. The lowest is 40.2 mm recorded in 2008.

Hyderabad on 2nd June this year recorded 42.3⁰C as the maximum temperature, making it the hottest day of the month in a decade. The temperature is equivalent to the maximum recorded on the same date in 2010.

“Monsoon is a four month long activity but so far an extremely dry June in most parts of the country is clearly indicating towards drought like situation. We reiterated the ill effects of El Nino on Monsoon in India and our predictions have been coming true”, said G.P Sharma.

Monsoon lurks around Delhi in absence of a surge

Monsoon is definitely lurking around in the national capital but the exact feature which could drive the Monsoon current to Delhi is missing.

An active Monsoon trough, which is an important feature for the Southwest Monsoon to enter Delhi, is yet to establish. In the absence of any significant system weather activity in Delhi/NCR is subdued.

A Western Disturbance by itself is not strong enough and it should work in tandem with the cyclonic circulation to bring good showers. In the recent past, we could see both Western Disturbances and circulations developing but they were confined to Rajasthan. In fact the national capital has been missing them by whiskers.

In the last 24 hours, several places in northern parts of Rajasthan, very close to Delhi, had good showers with Bikaner recording 74 mm of rain. Though Noida had a cloudy day on Monday but the rain belt moved passed its fringes. Few pockets of Delhi received light rain with Safdarjung and Palam recording 3 mm and 2.6 mm of rain on Monday.

Consequently, the maximum temperature in Delhi, which had been settling five to six notches above normal till Saturday, witnessed a drop on Sunday evening to record 40⁰C. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the mercury came down further on Monday to 38.8⁰C due to cloudy skies.

The mercury had already crossed the 35⁰C mark both at Safdarjung and Palam, before Tuesday afternoon. Nevertheless, the day temperature may not rise much as the Western Disturbance moving across the hills of Jammu and Kashmir and a circulation near central Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan, are feeding moist southwesterly winds across Rajasthan to Delhi, believes AVM (Retd), G.P Sharma.

But activity in terms of rain will remain subdued in Delhi for the next 2 days. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of dust storm followed by light rain

 

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Top five rainiest cities in India

With El Nino casting a spell on Monsoon in India, our list of top ten rainiest cities reduced to become top five rainiest cities. Rain activity decreased across India in the last 24 hours. Barring Meghalaya and isolated pockets of Sikkim and West Bengal, no place witnessed very heavy rain. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, except for Northeast India rain in India this week will continue to be sporadic and light.

Here’s a look at top five rainiest cities on Sunday:

Cities State Rainfall (in millimeters)
Cherrapunji Meghalaya 378
Darjeeling West Bengal 74
Gangtok Sikkim 63
Tadong Sikkim 46
Dhubri Assam 33

 

Top ten hottest places in India

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Palam in Delhi was the hottest place in India on Sunday with a maximum of 41.8°C. Lack of rain in Rajasthan also pushed up the day temperature in the state. Rentachintala in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh was also hot 41.2°C. Allahabad and Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh are the hottest places in the state.

Places State Maximum temperature on Sunday Forecast trend for next 24 hours
Palam Delhi 41.8°C Drop
Kota Rajasthan 41.6°C Rise
Jaisalmer Rajasthan 41.5°C Same
Rentachintala Andhra Pradesh 41.2°C Rise
Lucknow Uttar Pradesh 41.1°C Drop
Gwalior Madhya Pradesh 41.1°C Drop
Agra Uttar Pradesh 40.7°C Drop
Allahabad Uttar Pradesh 40.5°C Same
Ahmedabad Gujarat 40.2°C Same
Hisar Haryana 40°C Drop

According to the latest forecast, places in Rajasthan may sustain the temperatures while there would be a drop in maximums in Uttar Pradesh. Day temperature in Palam will also drop in the next 24 hours.

Photograph by Vinay070

 







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