Skymet weather

Cyclonic circulation near coastal Odisha, Andhra Pradesh likely to bring good rain

As predicted by Skymet Meteorology Division in India a cyclonic circulation has formed in westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh. This low intensity weather system, lying 4.5 km above the sea level, is expected to move inland and bring rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh, south Odisha for next 2 to 3 days.

The rain belt will travel further to bring good rain over Vidarbha, south Chhattisgarh, Marathwada and madhya Maharashtra after 48 hours.

According to the latest weather update, remaining clouds of the erstwhile cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh and adjoining areas of West Bengal continues to bring rain over Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining areas.

In the last 24 hours, Balasore received 24.2 mm of rain, Keonjhargarh 35.2 mm, Cuttack 15 mm, Jharsuguda 8 mm, Kolkata 9.3 mm.

According to data available with Skymet Meteorology Division in India Odisha at present is 65% short of Monsoon rain, while coastal Andhra Pradesh has received 74% less rain than normal. The developing circulation could mitigate this deficit rain to some extent and abate the on-going heat wave conditions.  .

Bhawanipatna in Odisha is a whopping 9⁰C above normal at 41.2⁰C. Kakinada and Ongole in coastal Andhra Pradesh are 5⁰C to 7⁰C above the normal average at 41.2⁰C and 41.8⁰C, respectively. With the coming of the Southwest Monsoon, coastal cities of Andhra Pradesh become cooler with day temperature dropping to record in the high twenties. But this year has been a different story all together.

Parts of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Marathwada, which have been experiencing drought like conditions at present, will be much benefited by the weather system. Good showers here will come as a great relief for farmers in these parched states.

 

 

No hope of rain in Gujarat for remainder of June; showers likely from 1st July

The month of June is nearing its end and there has been no rain in Gujarat since 18th June. And according to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather in Gujarat is expected to remain the same for the rest of the month. However, the start of July may bring some hope in terms of light rain.

Monsoon progress has been the slowest and most staggered this year. The month of June has been the driest in India in a decade. The image in the article shows, the NLM (Northern Limit of Monsoon) is yet to cross south Gujarat. Southwest Monsoon hit south Gujarat on 16th June and since then it hasn’t progressed at all. Currently the monsoon line is seen passing through Veraval and Surat in Gujarat. Last year, the progress of Monsoon had been quite speedy as by 29th June it had covered entire Gujarat.

There has been no rain in most parts of Gujarat for the entire month, creating a drought like situation in the state. The last time some good showers were seen was when Monsoon entered south Gujarat. Veraval and Porbandar had recorded over 60 mm of rain on the 16th and 17th of June respectively. Ahmedabad, the heart of Gujarat has observed only 1 mm of rain since mid-May. No wonder, the rain deficit in the state has been the highest in the country of about 86%. Suarashtra and Kutch regions are just a shade better with a rain deficit of 63%.

With the maximum temperature hovering around 41⁰C, people are experiencing hot an humid days. The only good thing is that there is no heat wave as the winds are south-westerly from the Arabian Sea. Gujarat has so far received 24.42 mm of rain, only 3.06% of the annual 797 mm rain. North, Central and South Gujarat should have received 46.8 mm of rain so far but has only received 10.3 mm rain till 23rd June. Similarly, Saurashtra & Kutch should have received 26 mm of rain, whereas it has received 21.9 mm of rain.

“This is because almost all the systems that give rain to the state are missing. Currently there is no system over Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal that promises rain in the next few days. Moreover, the offshore trough which generally remains active between Gujarat and Kerala coasts and gives some rain in Saurashtra too is not there. And this situation is not only prevalent over Gujarat but in most parts of India as well”, explains senior meteorologist Mahesh Palawat.

“After a dry Monsoon period in June, there is some hope of rain in Gujarat in July. The first three days of July could witness some light and isolated rain. Strong southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea could bring rain to Saurashtra and Kutch region and possibly in pockets of Mumbai.

Amid delayed Monsoon and reports of increasing shortage of water in several parts of Gujarat, the state Water Supply and Sewerage Board (GWSSB) has launched a toll-free helpline for people living in five districts. These districts are Kutch, Amreli, Surendranagar, Jamnagar and Devbhoomi-Dwarka.

Good showers likely in Delhi from next week

A pleasant and relatively cool morning greeted Delhiites today. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the Safdarjung Observatory in Delhi received 26.2 mm of rain on Thursday morning keeping the minimum 5⁰C below normal at 23.5⁰C.

In view of the Western Disturbance moving across the hills of Jammu and Kashmir and a circulation near central Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan, rain and thundershowers occurred at a few places over Himachal Pradesh and Punjab.

Here’s a look at the rainfall figures in last 24 hours- Sundar Nagar 43.4 mm, Ludhiana received 25 mm, Amritsar 17 mm, Pathankot 7 mm and Churu 4 mm of rain.

Delhi/NCR could receive dust storm followed by light rain today but thereafter any weather activity will remain subdued in the city for the next few days.

Skymet has been reiterating that Monsoon has been lurking around in the national capital but the exact feature which could drive the Monsoon current to Delhi seems missing. However, by the 30th of June, Monsoon currents in the form of easterly winds could come in confluence with moisture laden south westerly winds coming from the Arabian Sea. This could be the Monsoon surge Delhi has been waiting for.

The northwest plains including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh will receive good showers from the 30th of June. Rain will continue till the 1st week of July.

 

 

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Low-intensity weather system brewing near south Odisha and north AP coast

A cyclonic circulation is likely to form in the westcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh during the next two days. This low intensity weather system is expected to move inland and bring rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh, south Odisha, south Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, madhya Maharashtra and north interior Karnataka during the weekend.

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, remaining clouds of the erstwhile cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh and adjoining areas of West Bengal once again organised and shifted downward over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal. The manifestation of the weather system could be seen in Skymet Satellite image.

These clouds are close to eastern coast line and would move westward to bring rain in central and interiors of southern peninsula between Friday and Sunday. Due to the absence of southwesterly sea winds, Monsoon rain has been subdued in the region and westerly land winds have led to rise in day temperatures amid relatively clear sky. But the temperatures will drop once rain starts in the region.

According to data available with Skymet Meteorology Division in India for the week between 12th to 18th June, Odisha was 70 per cent short of Monsoon rain compared to the normal, while north Andhra Pradesh has received 90 per cent less rain than normal. Monsoon rain in other areas of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema are below normal by 38 and 85 per cent.

Weather in South India to be mainly dry for 48 hours; rain to pick up from Friday

Weather in South India has been unusually dry till now. Though there has been some Monsoon rain in the region, it is not good enough to cover up the deficit that most parts of the region are facing. The ill effects of El Nino on Monsoon in India are well known by now and we do not want to reiterate it further. So without stating the reasons for a weak Monsoon surge once again, we forecast the weather in South India till Sunday. 

Karnataka and Kerala: In the last one week, rain has been confined to these two states. Last week there was heavy Monsoon showers of over 50 mm across many cities in coastal Karnataka and Kerala but it has reduced since Monday. Rain figures from last 24 hours are: Kochi 18 mm, Punalur 13 mm, Madikeri 11 mm, Agumbe and Kottayam 8 mm, Kannur 3 mm, Honavar 1.5 mm and Kochikode 1.3 mm. Capital cities Thiruvananthapuram and Bangalore remained dry.

Last week due to good showers along the west coast, rain deficit had reduced considerably, though currently it still  stands at around 25% (Kerala coast) and 14% (Karnataka coast). The interiors of Karnataka are however, reeling under much tougher conditions as rain deficit here is over 40%.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, rain may pick along coastal Karnataka and Kerala once again, but it will still not be as strong as it is expected to be. The increase is likely from Saturday, when the Monsoon surge is likely to strengthen. This Monsoon current may also extend up to Goa and Mumbai where light patchy rain may occur after the longest and driest spell in June.

Andhra Pradesh: With a persisting heat wave, the Monsoon season has been rather hot than rainy in Andhra Pradesh. Weather records show maximums have risen by a whopping five to eight degrees, exceeding 42⁰C. On Tuesday Bapatla recorded 42.3⁰C, Kakinada 42⁰C, Visakhapatnam 42⁰C, Machilipatnam 41.6⁰C and Vijawada 41.4⁰C as the maximum temperatures.

Last year, after Southwest Monsoon hit the state the maximums were seen settling in the range of 34⁰C to 36⁰C. Coastal cities of Andhra Pradesh were cooler with day temperature recording in the high twenties.

However, there is some good news for Andhra Pradesh as the weather is likely to change and become rainy soon. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, rain may begin in Telangana, Seemandhra, where drought like situation is being witnessed right now, and could also reach up to Central India, i.e. parched states of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Marathwada. Rain could commence after 48 hours due to a weather system (cyclonic circulation) in the Bay of Bengal.

Tamil Nadu: The state lies in the rain shadow region and receives little rain during the Southwest Monsoon season, a time when all three neighbouring states are getting drenched in rain. But this year it has been quite the opposite. We mentioned in our earlier articles how Chennai has had excess monsoon rain in June due to multiple systems (troughs) that formed along the Tamil Nadu coast. However, in the next couple of days weather in the state is expected to become dry, with maximums sustaining around 40⁰C, which is two to three degrees above normal.

 







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