Skymet weather

Cyclonic circulation in Bay of Bengal to make landfall within 48 hours

The cyclonic circulation in north Bay of Bengal extending up to mid tropospheric levels is moving in a southwest direction and is expected to make a landfall over coastal parts of south Odisha or north Andhra Pradesh within next 48 hours. The system will weaken sufficiently but will still hold capacity to bring widespread rain over Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal.

Just as predicted by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, this low intensity weather system, lying 4.5 km above the sea level, brought rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha.

Rain in Odisha

In the last 24 hours, Keonjhar received 28 mm of rain, Koraput 22 mm, Cuttack 15 mm and Jharsuguda 12.3 mm of rain. Bhawanipatna had featured in Skymet’s top ten hottest cities on Thursday but just as predicted the city received 12 mm of rain bringing the mercury down from 41.2°C to 35.5°C.

Temperature in Odisha & Andhra Pradesh

Kakinada and Ongole in coastal Andhra Pradesh were 5⁰C to 7⁰C above the normal average at 41.2⁰C and 41.8⁰C, respectively. With the coming of the Southwest Monsoon, coastal cities of Andhra Pradesh became cooler with day temperature recording as low as in the high twenties as well. But this year has been a different story all together. However, the present system came as a relief as maximum came down to 30.7⁰C at Kakinada in a span of 24 hours.

According to the latest weather update, Monsoon showers are likely to continue for next 72 hours at many places over the East coast, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

The rain belt will travel further to bring good rain over Vidarbha, south Chhattisgarh, Marathwada and Telangana.

According to the data available with Skymet Meteorology Division in India, cumulative rain deficit decreased marginally in Odisha, which at present stands at 61% short of Monsoon rain. Deficiency in coastal Andhra Pradesh is 72% and the circulation could mitigate this deficit rain to some extent.

Parts of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Marathwada, which have been experiencing drought like conditions at present, will be much benefitted by the weather system. Good showers here will come as a great relief for farmers in these parched states.

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TOP TEN HOTTEST PLACES IN INDIA

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Bapatla in Andhra Pradesh was the hottest place in India on Wednesday with a maximum of 42.5°C. Rentachintala in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh followed and parts of Uttar Pradesh also experienced heat wave conditions.

Places State Maximum temperature on Wednesday Forecast trend for next 24 hours
Bapatla Andhra Pradesh 42.5°C Drop
Rentachintala Andhra Pradesh 42.3°C Drop
Varanasi Uttar Pradesh 41.9°C Drop
Ongle Andhra Pradesh 41.9°C Drop
Machilipatanam Odisha 41.5°C Drop
Kavali Andhra Pradesh 41.5°C Drop
Allahabad Uttar Pradesh 41.4°C Drop
Vijaywada Andhra Pradesh 41.2°C Drop
Kakinada Andhra Pradesh 41.2°C Drop
Bhawanipatna Odisha 41.2°C Drop

picture courtesy- Gidyonu Velicharla

Benefits of El Nino phenomenon

Weathermen across the world have scared you enough on the ill effects of El Nino but we have tried to list down some benefits of El Nino on India and other countries.

Relief from Extreme Cold/Heat – El Nino causes some serious weather problems around the world, no doubt about it, but La Nina, is not exactly a sweet little thing either. In places like the northeastern United States that are accustomed to cold and snowy winters, La Nina often makes for especially harsh winters. Strong El Ninos will typically bring warmer winters to the northern US states, which will be a relief after last winter’s Arctic conditions and polar vortex (-50⁰C).

In India, excruciating heat in May claims many lives as the mercury rises to 45⁰C, however this year Summer remained rather cool and rainy with excess monthly rainfall and maximum temperature in the thirties.

Less Damage from weaker Hurricanes/Cylones – Research shows, tornadoes seem especially numerous during springs and summers of La Nina and lesser in intensity and frequency during El Nino.  In 1999, for example, while La Nina conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, 12 tropical storms grew big enough to earn names, eight of them became hurricanes, and five became intense hurricanes.

Cyclones in India were seen to be most severe during La Nina years of 1999 and 2013 when storms like Phailin caused massive destruction. In contrast to this, in current El Nino year no cyclones originated in the Bay of Bengal between April and May. Cyclone Nanauk originated in the Arabian Sea but wasn’t strong enough to hit any coast and rather it dissipated and died down in the sea itself.

Evades Drought - On the opposite side of the Pacific, in the US, El Nino holds out the prospect of relief for the parched western state of  California. Till now the entire state is in severe or extreme drought after receiving barely a quarter of its annual rainfall, and communities have been under water rations since March. Scientists believe, here a strong El Nino would bring rain, typically double the annual average in southern California and therefore it is commonly referred to El Nino as the ‘great wet hope’.

So we asked our forecasters whether El Nino is really a bad news?

“It all depends on where you live. A powerful El Nino spells trouble for India, which often face below normal rain and drought.  On the contrary it is good news for dry and drought prone California as it observes double the average rain during El Nino”, explains senior meteorologist Mahesh Palawat

It must be kept in mind that though El Nino and La Nina tend to affect seasonal conditions one way or another, but every El Nino and La Nina is different. This year El Nino is definitely stronger than Monsoon!

Cumulative rain deficit for June mounts to 40 per cent; Monsoon revival likely in July

June has almost come to an end but we are yet to witness good Monsoon rain in the country. Since its onset over South India on 28th of May, the progress of Monsoon has been sluggish with less amounts of rain. And the current situation isn’t any different.

The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Veraval, Surat, Nashik, Wasim, Damoh and sultanpur. The western arm which is passing through Veraval, Surat and Nasik has become stagnant and has not moved for the 11th consecutive day, further raising fears of drought in Central and northwest India.

The cumulative rain deficit in June has widened to 40% on Wednesday, making it only the 12th instance in last 113 years when rainfall deficit has been over 30% in the month. Central India and northwest India are the worst affected with a deficit of 57% and 48% respectively, followed by East India, Northeast India and lastly South India.

This situation has certainly raised concerns among the farmers and the government in particular about the impact of dry spell on food prices and production. Plantation of crops from rice to soyabeans and lentils has been delayed across the country as farmers are not willing to take the risk of sowing seeds in anticipation.

Rainfall likely to revive in July

An estimated 833 million people out of the 1.2 billion population live on agriculture and the sector accounts for 14% of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Monsoon rain is the main source of irrigation for farmers in India as nearly 55% of crop land is rain fed.  Therefore, a poor Monsoon will certainly spell gloom for farmers and the country that may see food prices shoot up drastically.

But amidst all this gloom there is hope of revival of Monsoon from the first week of July. The cumulative deficit might get narrowed down to some extent but it is still too early to predict anything.

In April, Skymet had predicted Monsoon to be ‘below normal’ at 94% (error margin of ± 4%) of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 896 mm for the four-month period from June to September.







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