Monsoon rain has been heavy along the west coast for the last five days with many stations recording over 100 mm of rain in a day. A strong Monsoon surge and influx of moist westerly winds from the Arabian Sea helped in reviving the Monsoon in July after June left the entire country with a massive deficit.
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, heavy rain is likely to continue along the west coast for the next three days. Meanwhile, a short break in Monsoon rain which was observed in Mumbai in the last 48 hours, will also come to an end and rains will increase to become heavy once again from Tuesday.
In the last 24 hours, rain along the west coast reduced from being very heavy (of over 100 mm) to becoming mainly moderate and isolated heavy in some pockets. These were: Mumbai 27 mm, Ratnagiri 95 mm, Panaji 86 mm, Kochi 30 mm, Kottayam 40 mm, Mangalore 84 mm and Karwar 74 mm.
Monsoon may have taken a short break in between, but heavy rain in the last few days on a whole, led to a significant decline in the rain deficit figures in the last one week. Records show, the rain deficit in different sub divisions of South India reduced by over 10% from 9th July to 14th July.
In Konkan & Goa the rain deficit reduced from 59% to 39%, in coastal Karnataka it came down from 52% to 36% and in Kerala, it dropped from 44% to 29%.
“Rain is expected to be heavy all along the west coast of peninsular India, including Mumbai, for the next three days, which may further reduce the deficit in the region. But rainfall has to be continuous and heavy for the rainfall figure to be close to normal, i.e. (±19%). So far, good rains in the west coast have helped in bringing down the rain deficit in South India from over 35% to 29%”, said AVM (Retd) G.P Sharma.
Resolving debates about the onset of Monsoon 2014, Skymet Meteorology Division in India confirmed its arrival on the 28th of May, as most conditions stipulated for its onset over Kerala were largely met. Marginal variation of ± 2 days for the onset is always granted and the variations are generally amplified during the El Nino years, when one cannot rely entirely on set methods to indicate the onset date of the Monsoon.
Southwest Monsoon, after ushering in a little early, made a sluggish start with subdued activity in the initial phase and made a very slow advancement.
Southwest Monsoon has been extremely weak in terms of both intensity and coverage. The month of June was very gloomy for the country as the cumulative rain deficit mounted to 43% by the end of June and at present stands at 41%. The overall deficit till the middle of June stood at 45%. Thereafter, some good showers in the Northeast and West Bengal reduced the deficit to about 36% by the third week of June. But it again started to mount due to lack of rain in other parts of the country.
Reiterating, El Nino in India affects the overall Monsoon performance, including onset, periodic coverage and withdrawal. In fact, this year the trend followed by Southwest Monsoon has been abnormal or probably unique. Rain actually decreased in major cities right after Southwest Monsoon ushered in.
Here we will take up Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad and Surat as examples.
Delhi
Monsoon current reached the national capital by the 6th of July when the Safdarjung Observatory received only 0.9 mm of rain. On the 3rd and 4th of July, Delhi received just 4 mm and 7 mm of pre-monsoon rain, respectively. Delhi/NCR witnessed a long dry spell when temperatures and humidity levels kept rising.
Delhi experienced hot and sultry weather as temperatures rose from 37⁰C on 6th to 42.3⁰C on the 12th of July, due to lack of Monsoon rain. Minimums too settled in the higher-twenties, touching even 30⁰C. Finally, 26 mm of rain on the 13th brought some relief. However, only south and central parts of Delhi received rain.
Mumbai
Monsoon reached Mumbai around 17th June, when the city received 32 mm of rain in the span of 24 hours. There was lull for rest of the month. This year the month of June has been the driest in over a decade in Mumbai, leaving the city with a rain deficit of over 65%. The total of 87 mm of rain was the third lowest monthly total in last 63 years. However, July began on a relatively good note. Click here to know more.
Ahmedabad and Surat (Gujarat)
By 15th June, Southwest Monsoon generally covers Saurashtra and north Gujarat. It is true that the progress from Saurashtra to Kutch is generally slow but by 1st of July we observe good rain over Kutch. But this year represented a poor scenario for Gujarat as Monsoon rain over the state was delayed beyond a limit of repair.
Surat holds a monthly average of 600 mm of rain in the month of July but so far has received only 6 mm of rain. Similarly, the Monsoon current has reached Ahmedabad but good showers are yet to visit the city. Holding a monthly average of 281 mm, the city has received only 0.3 mm of rain till now. However, according to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, some rain is in the offing for Gujarat.
Both Surat and Ahmedabad received heavy rain in 2013, recording 641 mm and 468.5 mm of rain, respectively. Kutch received 64% excess rainfall while the plains recorded 31% excess Monsoon rain. Only light rain is in store for the state and looking at the present scenario it could be the driest state this El Nino year.
We are half way through the month of July and rain figures in Delhi are way below the normal average. As a result the rain deficit remains high and discomfort is tremendous. All hopes are now pinned on the next three days which is likely to bring some good amounts of rain in Delhi. Though meteorologists at Skymet Meteorology Division in India feel that even if the capital does receive heavy showers during the next 72 hours, July could end up being one of the driest, just like June.
The normal average rainfall in Delhi in July is 214 mm and till now there has been only 37 mm of rain, with one good spell of 26 mm on Sunday, 13th July. The driest July in Delhi in the last ten years was in 2004 when the city received a paltry 13.8 mm of rain during the month. In El Nino year 2012, July observed only 94.8 mm of rain against the average of 214 mm. The number of rainy days in Delhi have also been just three so far as compared to fifteen rainy days in July.
Before the rain experienced on Sunday, Delhi was observing heat wave condition as maximums were settling seven to eight degrees above normal. In the absence of rain Delhi recorded 43.2⁰C as the maximum temperature on 12th July, the second hottest day of the month in last ten years.
“The low pressure which developed in the Bay of Bengal, moved inland and brought good rain to Central India. This system is now moving further inland into North India and could therefore bring good rain to Delhi & NCR from the 16th to 18th July”, explained AVM (Retd) G.P Sharma.
According to the latest weather update, the maximum temperature in Delhi has already dropped (36.6⁰C recorded on Monday) from forties to settle in the mid-thirties. It could drop further, by about three to four degrees due to chances of rain. Nights however, will still be uncomfortable due to high humidity. The minimum temperature has continuously been settling around 30⁰C during the last few days. The weather in Delhi has been highly uncomfortable and sticky so far with the highest humidity of 88% (morning) and lowest of 62% (afternoon) recorded on Monday.
United States new-crop Maize futures fell for a tenth straight session as forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for abundant global supplies dragged on prices. The United States corn harvest was projected at 13.86 billion bushels, down slightly from last month but it is near to the last year's record.
During current crop season, Cardamom arrivals were 21134 tonnes against 15040 tonnes a year ago at Kochi market. Prevailing weather conditions is good for Cardamom and crop would be normal this year. Intermittent showers punctuated by sunshine keep the Cardamom plant healthy and with sufficient wet conditions required by it.
