Skymet weather

Drought chances sustain despite Monsoon revival

After poor Monsoon rains in June, July too commenced with a 43% deficit – highest for the season - and remained so till 12th July.

However, in the last one week there has been a series of cyclonic circulations moving across Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan, which has resulted in fairly widespread moderate to good rain, heavy at times in the region. This has helped in pulling down the cumulative deficit to 31% as on 21st July.

Though, it looks like a good recovery it doesn’t seem to be lasting long as the last few days of July may only experience patchy rains of light to moderate intensity.

Even with this recovery there are pockets such as Gujarat and Marathwada where the deficiency is alarming, over 60%. Telangana, Madhya Maharashtra and Punjab stare at a deficit of 50% or more. It is 40% or more in Vidarbha, Saurashtra, Kutch, entire Rajasthan, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the cumulative deficit at the end of July is estimated to be around 20%. The analogue analysis of the past data between 1877 and 2013 reveals that there were only 2 years (1877 and 2002) when there was a deficit of 30%. Both these years were El Nino years, experiencing severe drought.

During the same period there were 5 years (1877, 1918, 1972, 1987, and 2002) when June and July experienced a deficit of 25%. The seasonal deficit during these years stood at 23%, which amounts to severe drought.

Drought Category

  • Mild drought: -11% to -15%
  • Moderate drought: -16% to -20%
  • Severe drought: -20% and above

During the same period from 1877 to 2013 there were 10 years when the deficit in the months of June and July was 20%. All these years were again El Nino years. The seasonal deficit during these years also ended up at 18% amounting to moderate drought.

And 16 years during the same period the deficit for June and July has been 15%. Out of these 16 years 11 were again El Nino years. The season during this time ended with an average deficit of 14% resulting in mild drought.

Meanwhile, Skymet carried out the study on all worldwide dynamical models and the current state still points towards 60% chance of drought in India, with 40% chance of below normal rainfall. Incase of drought there is a 20% probability of severe drought and 50% chance of moderate drought.

This clearly shows that the country still stares at the probability of drought and there is zero chance of normal or excess rain being experienced during this Monsoon season.

 

Picture Courtesy: gg2.net

More trouble in the offing for Char Dham Yatris; rain to pick up in Uttarakhand from Tuesday

The water level has risen to dangerous level in Uttarakhand as the state has been receiving incessant rain since the 15th of July.

Rain has reduced now and in a span of 24 hours from 8.30 am on Sunday, Nainital received 5 mm of rain, Mukteshwar 27 mm, Tehri 13 mm, Champawat 59 mm, Pithoragarh 49 mm, Uttarkashi 13 mm, Mussourie 7 mm, Joshimath 9 mm and Pantnagar 2.2 mm of rain.

According to latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, this breather is only momentary as rain is likely to pick up once again in Uttarakhand from Tuesday evening.

Inclement weather in Uttarakhand

As Monsoon current travels, Uttarakhand is the first hilly state of North India to get affected. Monsoon never travels as a strong current to Jammu & Kashmir.

The average rain for the month of July in Uttarakhand is 428 mm in the state as a whole. Himachal Pradesh receives 307 mm and Jammu & Kashmir 192 mm.

From the 1st of June Uttarakhand has received 390 mm of rain till date. Uttarakhand is more vulnerable to rain owing to its terrain.

Torrential rains have stranded thousands of people in the hill state of Uttarakhand. This situation has evoked memories of last year’s cloudburst over the state, destroying property and claiming more than 5000 lives.

Rivers like Mandakini, Bhagirathi, Sharda and Alaknanda are flowing near the danger mark. People living close to the rivers have been asked to leave their houses and move to safer places.

Earlier the Char Dham Yatra was suspended till Saturday as heavy rains have caused landslides at several places along the yatra route. The national highway in the Kedar valley was inundated with water at some places. The Rishikesh-Badrinath national highway and the road connecting Kedarnath and Gaurikund was also blocked.

Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat, told media on Saturday that resumption of the Char Dham Yatra was a calculated risk which, he deliberately had to take in order to revive the state's economy.

It was during the beginning of the Char Dham Yatra on 16th June, 2013 that very heavy rain and cloudburst caused severe flooding in the state. About 5000 people including pilgrims were killed in this calamity.

Twelve out of thirteen districts in Uttarakhand bore the brunt of the fury. Rudraprayag, Chamoli Uttarkashi and Pithoragarh were the worst affected districts. The Kedarnath Temple, one of the famous temples of Lord Shiva and part of the Char Dham Yatra was also damaged.

picture courtesy- Ramesh Pathania

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More heavy rain expected in Central India

The well marked low pressure area over Bay of Bengal, coastal Odisha and West Bengal has now turned into a depression and is centred in north Odisha, 50 km east of Badipada. The system is likely to move in a west direction and weaken gradually.

In the last 24 hours, the system has given very heavy rain over few pockets of Odisha. Balasore in the state has recorded 259 mm of rain, Keonjhargarh 150 mm and Baripada 84 mm.

Widespread rains with isolated moderate to heavy showers were also observed over gangetic plains, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh during this period. Contai in West Bengal experienced 125 mm of rain, Digha 50.6 mm, Diamond Harbour 21.8 mm, Midnapore 12 mm, Burdawan 10 mm and Asansol 7.2 mm.

Rain in Chhattisgarh was heavy too, with Antagarh recording 270 mm of rain, Gariyaband 230 mm, Kurud 190 mm, Dhantari 170 mm, Jagdalpur 71 mm and Raipur 47 mm.

Meanwhile, the system is moving in a west-northwest direction and is likely to give good rain over parts of east Madhya Pradesh, southern parts of Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and parts of Marathwada in the next 24 hours. Light rain is also expected over many other states in central and northwest India.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the continuous spell of rain in east and central India is likely to narrow down the regional as well as the cumulative deficit.

TOP TEN RAINIEST CITIES IN INDIA ON SATURDAY

Several places from North, Central and South India feature in our top ten list of rainiest cities. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the rain belt could extend up to north Maharashtra, eastern parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan in the coming days.

Here’s a look at our list of top ten rainiest cities in India on Saturday:

Cities State Rainfall(in millimeters)
Agumbe Karnataka 232
Champawat Uttarakhand 116
Nanital Uttarakhand 116
Mukteshwar Uttarakhand 86
Mangalore Karnataka 86
Pantnagar Uttarakhand 84
Kannur Kerala 68
Pachmarhi Madhya Pradesh 65
Madikeri Karnataka 62
Almora Uttarakhand 60

 

Rain to reduce in Uttarakhand after 24 hours; Char Dham Yatra resumed at risk

Torrential rains for the fourth consecutive day have stranded thousands of people in the hill state of Uttarakhand. This situation has evoked memories of last year’s cloudburst over the state, destroying property and claiming more than 5000 lives.

Rivers like Mandakini, Bhagirathi, Sharda and Alaknanda are flowing near the danger mark. People living close to the rivers have been asked to leave their houses and move to safer places.

According to latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, in the last 24 hours, Nainital and Champawat have received 116 mm of rain each, Mukteshwar 86 mm, Almora 60 mm, Pithoragarh 51 mm, Dehradun 14, Uttarkashi 5 mm and Haridwar 22.2 mm of rain.

Rain is likely to reduce significantly in the state after 24 hours but pick up once again on the 25th and 26th of July.

Earlier the Char Dham Yatra was suspended till Saturday as heavy rains have caused landslides at several places along the yatra route.

Uttarakhand Chief Minister Harish Rawat, told media on Saturday that resumption of the Char Dham Yatra was a calculated risk which, he deliberately had to take in order to revive the state's economy.

The national highway in the Kedar valley was inundated with water at some places. The Rishikesh-Badrinath national highway and the road connecting Kedarnath and Gaurikund was also  blocked.

It was during the beginning of the Char Dham Yatra on 16th June, 2013 that very heavy rain and cloudburst caused severe flooding in the state. About 5000 people including pilgrims were killed in this calamity.

Twelve out of thirteen districts in Uttarakhand bore the brunt of the fury. Rudraprayag, Chamoli Uttarkashi and Pithoragarh were the worst affected districts. The Kedarnath Temple, one of the famous temples of Lord Shiva and part of the Char Dham Yatra was also damaged.

picture courtesy- news locker







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