Skymet weather

More showers in the offing in Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh and south Rajasthan

The weather system which developed in the Bay of Bengal first brought torrential rain over Odisha and West Bengal, gradually shifting to Chattisgarh and Vidarbha. The Monsoon system has now travelled towards west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas.

Rain so far in Central India had been confined to single states and adjoining areas but in last 24 hours, multiple pockets received rain of varying intensity.

Rain in Central India

West Madhya Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra, coastal parts of Gujarat and Konkan and Goa received good showers. Here’s a look at the rainfall figures in last 24 hours-

Indore in west Madhya Pradesh received 108 mm of rain. Bhopal and Jabalpur received a meagre 17 mm and 3 mm of rain, respectively.

In Gujarat, Surat received 112 mm of rain and Ahmedabad 89 mm. However, Saurashtra and Kutch were relatively unaffected.

In Vidarbha, Amravati received heavy rain of 134 mm but light in Nagpur (5 mm), Akola (29 mm) and Wardha (8 mm).

The rain belt will have a tendency to shift northwards, leaving behind Madhya Mahrashtra and cover south Rajasthan. Because of high availability of moisture content, the Monsoon system has the tendency to result in inclement weather conditions for a longer period of time in the regions of north Gujarat, Vidarbha, coastal Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh and Konkan and Goa. Consequently, rain is likely to continue under the influence of the present system but with reduced intensity for next 24 hours.

Cumulative Rainfall Deficit

Just as Skymet Meteorology Division in India predicted, the spell of rain has brought down the rain deficiency in west Madhya Pradesh from 34% to 17% in a span of just 24 hours. Rain deficit is likely to narrow down in other parts as well. Deficiency in Central India as a whole has rapidly reduced and now stands at 22%.

Meanwhile, another system is expected to build up in the Bay of Bengal by the end of this month and give another good spell of rain in central India.

 

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TEN DAYS MONSOON FORECAST

Skymet came out with its 10 days Monsoon forecast on the 12th of July and with a margin of one or two days the weather panned out more or less as was predicted.

As of 12th July, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passed through  Veraval, Surat, Indore, Shivpuri, Alwar and Bikaner. As predicted by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, in the last 10 days Monsoon activity picked up in most parts of the country. Particularly, Central, East and the West Coast of India received good rain during this time.

After a long dry spell, Gujarat finally received good rain and Southwest Monsoon covered entire Madhya Pradesh, south east Rajasthan and entire Gujarat by the 17th of July.

Here’s an outlook for Southwest Monsoon for the next 10 days-

First 3 days (23rd, 24th, 25th)

  • The weather system presently lying over west Madhya Pradesh will bring good showers over west Madhya Pradesh, south Rajasthan, Gujarat, Goa, Konkan and most parts of Maharashtra.
  • Mumbai will start receiving heavy to very heavy showers from Wednesday or Thursday onwards.
  • Monsoon will remain less active over North India during this time. Rain will pick up by the 25th of July.

Next 3 days (26th, 27th, 28th)

  • Rain will now reduce over Central and East India.
  • The rain belt will shift more towards North India as easterly winds will strengthen, pushing the Monsoon trough closer to the foothills of North India.
  • Heavy showers are likely along the foothills of North India, right from North to East.

Last 3 days (29th, 30th , 20th )

  • A fresh cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal parts of Odisha and Bengal  will bring rain over East and Central India.
  • Good showers will continue along the west coast during this time.

On account of good showers, cumulative rain deficit will come down by a reasonable extent in the coming ten days.

picture courtesy- Globalpost

Rain reduces in Central India as Monsoon system moves away

After giving heavy to very heavy rain over central and east India for the last few days, the Monsoon system is now travelling towards west Madhya Pradesh and is likely to give good rain over Madhya Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Konkan and Goa.

In a span of 24 hours from 8.30 am on Tuesday, Nagpur in Maharashtra experienced 140 mm of rain and Akola 130 mm. Bhopal and Indore in Madhya Pradesh observed 73 mm and 54 mm of rain respectively.

Because of high availability of moisture content, the Monsoon system has the tendency to result in inclement weather conditions for a longer period of time in the regions of Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh and Konkan and Goa.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the spell of rain is likely to narrow down the deficit of 34% in west Madhya Pradesh, 60% in Marathwada, 62% in Gujarat 59% in Saurashtra and Kutch to some extent.

Meanwhile, another system is expected to build up in the Bay of Bengal by the end of this month and give one more good spell of rain in central India.

Weather in Gujarat turning out to be similar to El Nino year 2012

This year Southwest Monsoon neither had a good beginning nor a decent progress in most parts of the country including Gujarat. The state has experienced only one significant spell of rain this Monsoon season.

Skymet Meteorology Division in India has been reiterating the fact that from being the rainiest state last year Gujarat could be the driest this evolving El Nino year.

Monsoon rain in Gujarat

Surat holds a monthly average of 600 mm of rain in the month of July but till the 15th of July it has received only 6 mm of rain. Similarly Ahmedabad, holding a monthly average of 281 mm of rain, received only 0.3 mm of rain during the same period.

The only substantial spell of rain observed in the state this month was in a span of 3 days from the 16th of July when Veraval received 158 mm of rain, Surat 118 mm, Rajkot 98 mm and Ahmedabad 58 mm of rain. The deficit has kept mounting and touched 93% in the state.

Cumulative Rain Deficit came down by 30% in just 10 days

Till 9th of July, cumulative rain deficit in the sub-division of Saurashtra & Kutch remained 83% and Gujarat as a whole 92%. The state showed some improvement by the 13th as the deficit reduced to 75% over Saurashtra & Kutch, and 91% in the entire state. Good showers brought down the rain deficiency significantly and by the 20th, the deficit in the state came down to 61% and to 57% over Saurashtra & Kutch. Around that time rain deficit came down appreciably over Central and East India as well.

However, weather activity in terms of rain remained on a low key in last 3 days, and as of 22nd July Gujarat is deficit by 62% while Saurashtra & Kutch by 59%.

Will 2014 end up with a huge deficit like 2012?

After analysing last 3 year’s data, Skymet Meteorology Division in India came to the conclusion that the weather in Gujarat is shaping up somewhat similar to El Nino year 2012. Though we are just half way through the season and any significant spell can bring huge variations, present scenario and the facts stated below seem to substantiate this statement.

2011-    Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Saurashtra & Kutch- (+52%)

Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Gujarat- 0 (normal)

2012 (El Nino year)- Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Saurashtra & Kutch (-34%)

Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Gujarat- (-28%)

2013- Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Saurashtra & Kutch (+64%)

Cumulative rainfall departure from normal in Gujarat  (+31%)

Delayed and Poor Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon generally covers Saurashtra and north Gujarat by 15th June. It is true that the progress from Saurashtra to Kutch is generally slow but by 1st of July we observe good rain over Kutch. But this year a poor scenario prevailed as Monsoon rain over the state had been delayed beyond a limit of repair.

The western arm of the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM), passing through Veraval and Surat, remained stagnant from 15th of June to the 15th of July.

picture courtesy- Madhyamam

TOP TEN RAINIEST CITIES IN INDIA ON MONDAY

Odisha, south Chhattisgarh and adjoining Vidarbha have been receiving good showers. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the rain belt will gradually travel and cover rest of Vidarbha, Marathwada, south Rajasthan, Gujarat and some parts of southern Madhya Pradesh.

Here’s a look at our list of top ten rainiest cities in India on Monday:

Cities State Rainfall(in millimeters)
Raipur Chhattisgarh 162
Jharsuguda Odisha 103
Madikeri Karnataka 86
Pendra Chhattisgarh 85
Bhabanipatna Odisha 85
Jabalpur Madhya Pradesh 75
Agumbe Karnataka 74.2
Titlagarh Odisha 70
Keonjhargarh Odisha 59
Sambalpur Odisha 54
Nagpur Maharashtra 42

picture courtesy- The Better India







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