Monsoon rain is going to be poor across the country for three days (25th July to 27th July) as the system that caused some good rain in the last 7-8 days has weakened. And the western end of the Monsoon trough is likely to shift close to the foothills.
It will take about another 48 hours for the system in the Bay of Bengal to organize and move inland to result in a fresh spell of rain, commencing first with the eastern part of the country.
During these three days, Rajasthan, parts of Gujarat and peninsular India are going to be the most affected. The deficit is also going to mount along entire Gangetic plains that include Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand.
Telangana, Rayalaseema and Karnataka in South India are also likely to feel the impact of this diminishing spell of rain. Even the west coast that usually observes good rain may experience light to moderate showers during this period. Very heavy spells will be missing completely.
During these three days, the daily average rainfall of 10 mm in the country is also expected to reduce to half for the first two days. Thereafter it will show a gradual increase. The cumulative rainfall figure, which has gone down may get arrested and possibly increase during this period.
Central and East India fared extremely well in terms of Monsoon rain in the last 10 days but the west coast where Monsoon rain is usually very heavy during the Monsoon season, remained deficit.
The west coast plays a vital role in affecting the overall rainfall figures of the country. As rain along the west coast during the month of June remained poor, it directly affected the national cumulative rainfall figure, which stood at a deficit of 43%. Mumbai received an abysmal rain of 88 mm against the monthly average of 523 mm. Other weather stations like Kochi and Mangalore also faced the similar fate, adding to the overall deficit.
July is supposed to be the peaking month of Monsoon in terms of rain, with monthly average rainfall for Mumbai being 800 mm, Mangalore 1104 mm, Goa 900 mm, Kozhikode 817 mm and Kochi 593 mm.
Let us now analyse how the west coast performed since the 16th of July by dividing the region in 3 divisions. The table below shows the rainfall deficiencies in these 3 regions.
| Date | Kerala | Coastal Karnataka | Konkan & Goa |
| 16th July | 24% | 30% | 31% |
| 21st July | 23% | 26% | 26% |
| 25th July | 19% | 24% | 22% |
We can infer from the figures above that Kerala fared well in last 4 days when the deficit came down by 4%.
By the 17th of July, Mumbai had already received 997 mm of rain and covered the monthly average but Kochi and Mangalore had just received 467 mm and 265 mm of rain, respectively. In the last 10 days, Kochi received 167 mm and Mangalore 265 mm of rain.
Consequently, Kochi needs 120 mm of more rain to cover the monthly average, while Mangalore needs 300 mm. By the end of the month, these cities could cover up the deficit but the roll over from the previous month could keep the overall deficits in the range of 20 to 25%.
After very poor Monsoon rain in June, the month of July too had been panning out in the same fashion, but some good rain during the week ended 24th July has brought down the cumulative deficit in the country to a large extent. The rainfall during the week has been about 20% excess – first time in this Monsoon season.
A good Monsoon system that formed in the Bay of Bengal travelled right from Odisha to Gujarat across Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra giving good rain in the region during the entire week.
Before this system emerged and gave some significant rain over east, central and west India, these regions were staring at an enormous deficit which has now narrowed down to some extent.
| Place | Deficit till 16th July | Deficit till 24th July |
| Odisha | -31% | -3% |
| Chhattisgarh | -36% | -7% |
| East Madhya Pradesh | -44% | -19% |
| West Madhya Pradesh | -48% | -7% |
| Vidarbha | -50% | -12% |
| Madhya Maharashtra | -62% | -30% |
| Gujarat Region | -84% | -48% |
| Saurashtra | -73% | -56% |
| East Rajasthan | -61% | -39% |
| West Rajasthan | -70% | -45% |
This spell of rain - week ended 24th July – has not only improved the regional deficit but the cumulative deficit has also come down from 36% to 24% at the moment.
However, the concern over poor rains in the country still exists. According to Skymet meteorology Division in India, the average rainfall for the country from 1st June to 16th July is 308 mm, whereas there had been 196.9 mm of rain.
Meanwhile, the average rainfall for the country from 1st June to 24th July is 385.8 mm, while the country has received 291.1 mm of rain, which means there has been 95 mm of rain during this period against the normal of 78 mm, which is 20% excess rain.
Though this figure shows some signs of improvement, forecast suggest that rain is again going to reduce in the country for the next few days and the cumulative deficit may change again.
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West Madhya Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra, coastal parts of Gujarat and Konkan and Goa received good showers on Wednesday. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Amravati in Maharashtra topped the list of rainiest cities in India. The rain belt will have a tendency to shift northwards and cover south Rajasthan by tomorrow.
Here’s a look at our list of top ten rainiest cities in India on Wednesday:
| Cities | State | Rainfall(in millimeters) |
| Amravati | Maharashtra | 134 |
| Surat | Gujarat | 112 |
| Indore | Madhya Pradesh | 108 |
| Ahmedabad | Gujarat | 89 |
| Baroda | Gujarat | 87 |
| Bhopal | Madhya Pradesh | 73 |
| Bhavnagar | Gujarat | 73 |
| Amreli | Gujarat | 72 |
| Kunnur | Kerala | 69 |
| Kozhikode | Kerala | 55 |
Delhi has almost been dry this Monsoon season with 40% percent of rain deficit being observed in June. The month of July looks even worse as the deficit today stands at 53% and there has been only two days of significant rain in the city, on 13th and 17th July.
So far Delhi has observed 101 mm of rain against the monthly average of 214 mm. 57 mm and 26 mm of rain on the 17th and 13th of July respectively has immensely contributed to this number. Rest of the days have largely been dry, with very light or no rain.
And with only over a week left for the month to end, this deficit does not look to narrow down greatly though, some rain is expected in the city Sunday onwards.
Meanwhile, the temperatures have also been hovering in the mid-thirties or higher thirties, explaining the sultry weather conditios in Delhi.
According to Skymet Monsoon forecast update released on July 4, 2014, the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the LPA (Long period Average) in August and September, raising hopes of some improved rainfall activity during these months.
We expect Delhi also too observe some good rain during August and September however, the deficit may still persist.
