Skymet weather

Heavy rain showers after lull in Maharashtra

Mumbai RainAfter days of weak Monsoon, fairly heavy rains lashed Maharashtra during last 24 hours. Nagpur city, Satara and Parbhani were among the few cities that received moderate to heavy rain showers. At 67 mm, rain was the heaviest in Satara followed by showers of 65.4 mm in Nagpur city and 54.1 mm in Parbhani.

Due to poor rains this Monsoon, Marathwada and Central Maharashtra were the worst affected regions in the past few weeks. There was negligible variation in weather in these parts due to minimal or no rain. Madhya Maharashtra observed a rain deficiency of up to 30%, from 1st June to 20th August, while it was staggeringly high at an average of 62% for Marathwada during the same period . The weather condition was similar in Vidarbha in east Maharashtra.

Cumulative Rain Deficiency

Date Madhya Maharashtra Marathwada Vidarbha Coastal Maharashtra
June to 18th Aug 29 62 19 12
June to 19th Aug 30 63 19 13
June to 20th Aug 30 62 18 13
June to 21st Aug 30 62 18 14

*figures in %

Looking at the past 24 hours there seems a ray of hope for the residents of Maharashtra. Moderate to heavy rain showers were seen in isolated pockets of the state. Rain was varied in intensity with Buldhana receiving 35 mm of rain and Sangli observing only 14.2 mm.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the situation will prevail for next few days as well. Cloudy sky with possibility of rain and thunderstorm is expected in Maharashtra which may pull down the deficit to an extent.

Rain recorded in the last 24 hours

               City            Rainfall (mm)
Satara 67
Sangli 14.2
Parbhani 54.1
Nagpur 65.4
Udgir 11.8
Buldhana 35

Ten days Monsoon forecast- 22nd to 31st August

Skymet Satellite ImageIn last ten days, no significant rain has been observed in the country, except for Northeast, West coast and parts of Southern peninsula. This is an indication of a break monsoon as explained in our earlier article 'Monsoon in India takes a break'. However, now there is a system developing off Kerala coast in the Arabian Sea which is likely to increase the intensity of rain in the coastal regions of Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

Let’s take a look at the Southwest Monsoon in India for the coming ten days-  

22nd to 25th August

  • One odd place in Jammu and Kashmir may experience rain during this period
  • West coast and some parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Vidarbha will observe increase in rainfall activity. Mumbai, Pune and Goa are likely to experience rain for three days
  • Central and East India will also have scattered rain, while in the Northeast showers will continue for the entire period
  • South India will also continue experiencing rain. Showers will be fairly widespread in Lakshadweep, kerala and parts of Karnataka.

26th to 28th August

  • Rainfall will almost be nil in Northwest India and temperatures will be on the rise
  • West coast and some parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Vidarbha will observe a marginal decrease in intensity of rain during this time
  • Central India will observe light rain, while the intensity will increase in East India including east Uttar Pradesh. This may hamper recovery work in the flood-hit areas
  • The weather will continue to remain the same i.e. continued rainfall activity in South and Northeast India

29th to 31st August

  • During this period a system is likely to develop in the west central Bay of Bengal and move gradually inland and cause fairly widespread rainfall in Central India, thus reviving Monsoon over Central and Northwest India.
  • The weather in Northwest India will be mainly dry and uncomfortable during this period also
  • Rainfall will continue in West, Central and South India in these three days
  • East and Northeast India are likely to experience decrease in rainfall, as a system develops in Bay

Fresh rains lead to slow recovery in flood stricken India

Bihar FloodsLife is taking slow steps towards normalcy in the flood stricken India after recent heavy rains left more than 100 people dead and many without shelters. Villagers begin the process of rebuilding their lives and their submerged villages after the flood fury swept many parts of Assam, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh. The waters of the Brahmaputra and its tributaries have started falling, bringing some relief to thousands of people gripped by the recent floods in Assam. As water begins to recede from the Indo-Nepal border villages, situation begins to improve in Bihar and East U.P too.

Less rain in catchment areas of the rivers is the biggest contributing factor to this improvement. Flood-prone areas of Gorakhpur and Bahraich in Uttar Pradesh received a total of 20 mm and 1.4 mm of rain, respectively, in the last 48 hours.

The situation is similar in the Sub- Himalayan regions including West Bengal and Assam. The current setting looks less grim as various parts of the region received marginal rain as compared to the heavy showers last week. While Gangtok observed 22.8 mm of rain, Darjeeling recorded 12.2 mm and Jalpaiguri 0.5 mm in last 48 hours, the situation was worse last week in these regions. The heavy rain of 76.8 mm in Gangtok and 47.6 mm in Darjeeling on August 13 was one of the contributing factors to the onset of floods.

However, conditions will take time to be improve in parts of Bihar. Even though river Ganga and Sone in Bihar show receding trends, moderate rainfall in the last two days has not provided any substantial respite in the state. Heavy isolated showers of 88.6 mm and 21.8 mm were also recorded in Supaul and Motihari, respectively.

Besides rain, various other factors had worsened the situation in seven states of India comprising of hills, valleys and plains. Inundation and water logging, heavy rain in the catchment areas of the hills and inflow of rain waters from the hills of Nepal were some of the other causes that created flood like situation in Uttar Pradesh, Bengal, Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir.

Southwest Monsoon had been vigorous over Odisha since the beginning of August and the state had been the most weather intensive pocket of the country. Sambalpur had received a whopping 273 mm of rain, while Jharsuguda received 115 mm on the 4th of August.  Due to torrential rain, the state witnessed surface water logging and inundation. Heavy rain also resulted in steep rise in water level of more than nine rivers in the state. Rain reduced considerably by the 10th of August but damage repair continues.

Water clogging, heavy mud and slush formation due to flood water and water stagnation is causing high risk of epidemics in these areas. An increased level of diseases and unavailability of drinkable water are some of the other concerns that state government is currently facing.

So even though river water in these areas appear to recede, renewed threat of fresh moderate and heavy rains along the foothills of eastern U.P., Bihar and Northeastern states cannot be ruled out.

 

Picture courtesy: topnews.in

Delhi turns into the new ‘Urban Heat Island’

Delhi weatherRecord breaking heat and high temperature is converting the national capital into the hottest and driest city. The Safadarjung Observatory recorded 38.4oC as the maximum temperature on Wednesday, which is the highest in last ten years. Palam too saw the maximum settle at 39.5oC, close to the ten-year high of 40.1oC recorded in 2009 during August. Delhi’s heat is leaving citizens high and dry. The last ten days have been the longest spell of dry weather Delhi has witnessed in August in the last five years. For Delhites, who have been baking in the unseasonable heat in the monsoon months of July and August, there seems to be no respite from this scorching heat for next couple of days either. The present sweltering weather that the national capital region is witnessing is usually observed during pre-monsoon when maximum temperature touches 40oC. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the city is already 52% behind its quota of normal rainfall for August and chances of the situation improving seems bleak. Delhi has recorded only 120 mm of rain so far against the monthly average of 253 mm. Moreover, the situation is similar for NCR regions as well. While Ayanagar, Hindon and Yamuna sports complex saw maximum setlle at 39.5oC (similar to Palam), the temperature at Pitampura, Najafgarh and Noida was above 38oC for Wednesday. So whether Delhi will sizzle at this high temperature or will it drizzle, that’s something we have to wait and watch. Record Breaking High Temperature in Last Ten Years

                   Date & Year                 Temperature
5th Aug, 2013 38.2oC
19th Aug, 2012 37.7oC
3rd Aug, 2011 39.5oC
11th Aug, 2010 37.9oC
11th Aug, 2009 40.1oC
28th Aug, 2008 37oC
1st Aug, 2007 38.3oC
18th Aug, 2006 38.8oC
5th Aug, 2005 39oC
1st Aug, 2004 36.6oC

Wednesday’s Maximums Around Delhi

                         Place                  Temperature
Palam 39.5oC
Aya Nagar 39.5oC
Hindon Vihar 39.5oC
Yamuna Sports Complex 39.5oC
Safdarjung 38.4oC
Noida 38.4oC
Najafgarh 38.8oC
Pitampura 38oC

Dry spell continues in North India; South India observing pleasant weather

Monsoon cloudThere is a complete change in the weather parameters of North India. The region is hardly observing any rain and the temperatures are settling above the normal average. Humidity levels have decreased marginally but the winds are northwesterlies. Such conditions are usually observed during the pre-monsoon season.

The hills of North India are also experiencing dry weather with minimal rain. Nainital in Uttarakhand recorded 24oC as the maximum temperature on Wednesday, which is 4 degrees above normal. Mussoorie too saw maximum settle at 24.1oC, 4 degrees above normal. This condition will prevail in North India for another 4-5 days.

Central India

This region usually observes cool and pleasant weather during this time. Maximums settle in the lower thirties and moderate breeze makes the weather even more enjoyable. However, there is minimal weather activity in the region due to which the temperatures are settling above normal. Khajuraho, a major tourist attraction in Madhya Pradesh recorded 37.4oC as the maximum temperature on Wednesday, which is a good 5 degrees above normal. In Bhopal the maximum was 34.3oC, again 5 degrees above normal. This clearly explains the change in the weather in Central India at the moment.

East and Northeast India

The prevailing break monsoon condition is favourable for some good rain in East and Northeast India, particularly along the foothills. Sikkim and Sub Himalayan West Bengal will be the main centres of rainfall activity for a week. Temperatures in these regions are witnessing close to normal. Patna, the capital of Bihar recorded 33oC as the maximum on Wednesday, while Kolkata and Darjeeling saw maximum settle at 32oC and 18oC respectively. Kolkata also observed 14 mm of rain on Thursday.

South India

This is one region that is experiencing pleasant weather conditions. Light rain is expected to continue in South India for another 4-5 days, especially along the coastal parts of Kerala and Karnataka. The temperatures have also been maintaining close to normal here. Madurai recorded 34oC as the maximum on Wednesday, which is 2 degrees below normal, while Salem saw maximum settle at 30.7oC, again 2 degrees below normal.

Monsoon in India takes a break, revival unlikely for a week

Break in MonsoonSouthwest Monsoon is a four month long season over the Indian region spanning from June to September, with a Long Period Average (LPA) of 89 cm of rain for this period.Monsoon in India could be conceived as a complex phenomenon, inherited with a variety of phases ranging from active Monsoon to weak, lull, break and the like. Monsoon experiences a lot of variation and not uniform throughout the season.

Southern parts of the country enjoy the complete four month duration of Monsoon, whereas North India actively observes only about two months of rainy season, before it recedes in September. June is the onset month which witnesses an outburst of rain while, September is the withdrawal month, receiving only sporadic rain.  July and August are generally the active Monsoon months for the entire country.

In last few days, the Monsoon current remained weak for major part of the country and rain was confined to only few pockets. The national capital witnessed the last spell of rain on the 10th of August while Amritsar received just 9 mm of rain in last 10 days. Patiala did not receive any rain during this period.

Going by the present scenario, Skymet Meteorology Division in India confirms that Monsoon has gone into a break and the situation is likely to continue for at least another week. In Meteorological terminology, 'break' in the Monsoon comes when three or more consecutive days of rains are way below normal in the 'core Monsoon zone'.

During the Monsoon season, there are periods when the Monsoon trough shifts to the foothills of Himalayas, which leads to sharp decrease in rainfall over most parts of the country but increase along the Himalayas and parts of Northeast India and Southern Peninsula. Likewise, Dehradun received two spells of torrential rain of 120 mm and 135 mm, on the 15th and 16th respectively.

Mid of August is most prone to ‘breaks’ and that too longer breaks.

Skymet brings out few features of ‘break in Monsoon’-

  • Increase in temperatures over plains of Northwest India.
  • Shift of Monsoon trough to the foothills of Himalayas and should remain there for at least two days.
  • General decrease of rainfall over major parts of the country including west coast.
  • No signs of easterly current over Gangetic plains up to 500 ft.
  • Increase in rainfall over the southern peninsula.
  • Absence of any disturbance in the Bay of Bengal.
  • Westwards moving low pressure areas at low latitudes in Bay of Bengal.
  • Heavy showers take place in pockets of the Himalayas but not simultaneously across the length of the foothills.
  • In the Himalayan range , places lying in the east of 85°E longitude are more susceptible to heavy showers than in the west of it.

Monsoon is normally revived by the formation of a low pressure area or remnants of a typhoon entering Bay of Bengal from the South China Sea. However, both these conditions are inconspicuous at present. Looking at the present scenario, Monsoon activity is unlikely to revive in another week or so.

Good rain in Mumbai breaks lull, inches towards monthly average

After observing a lull for almost ten days, the city of Mumbai observed some good rain on Thursday. In a span of three hours from 5.30 am on Thursday the city experienced 30 mm of rain, which has taken the rainfall figure to 356 mm against the monthly average of 529.7 mm.

August began on a very positive note for Mumbai. Till the 6th of August the city had observed 205 mm of rain, with 88 mm being observed on the first day of the month alone. However, there was a modest drop in the weather activity since then.

Mumbai rainFrom the 6th till the 12th of August there had been 91 mm of rain in the city, heaviest being 44 mm, on 7th August. And from 13th to 20th August there was only 30 mm of rain in Mumbai, highest being 15 mm on 15th August. This spell of dry weather had raised some fears but the Thursday rain has again brought the rainfall figures to normal.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, there is a Monsoon system which could give rain in Mumbai for another 2-3 days. However, intense activity will remain far from Mumbai over coastal Karnataka and adjoining Goa. The remaining days will also observe some rainfall activity.

The highest amount of rain in Mumbai in the month of August in last one decade is 1036.5 mm, recorded in 2010. The lowest is 256.3 mm, in 2013. The all-time high during the month is 1254 mm, experienced in 1958. There are about 21 rainy days -2.5 mm and above rain - in August. In fact everyday there is some rain (could be very mild) experienced in city.

Monsoon rain in Mumbai declines sharply after August. The average monthly rainfall during September is 312.3 mm, while October observes 55 mm of rain.

Number of scanty sub-divisions increase to three

Punjab droughtMonsoon started on a very poor note in June with the country facing a rainfall deficit of 43%. About 20 sub-divisions were deficit and 11 scanty during the month. However, the situation improved in July with three sub-divisions observing excess rain. 17 sub-divisions were normal, while only 15 were deficit and scanty was just one. From 1st June to 20th August there are three sub-divisions – Punjab, Haryana and Marathwada- that are scanty.  And the situation does not look to improve in these pockets in the coming days, except in Marathwada where some rain is expected. Classification of rain Excess rain: +20% Normal rain: ± 19% Deficit rain: -20% to -59% Scanty rain: -60% to -99% Monsoon season is very important for India as 70% of the annual rain is received during this period. However, it is never possible that rain will be evenly distributed. Best of the Monsoon season will also have some pockets with scanty rain. Below is a table showing how the scanty sub-divisions and the country as a whole have fared throughout the Monsoon months of June, July and August

Name of the State

June

                  July

Till 20th August
Deficit Country deficit Deficit Country Deficit Deficit Country Deficit
Punjab 51% 43% 59% 10% 67% 6%
Haryana 44% 43% 56% 10% 75% 6%
Marathwada 79% 43% 44% 10% 75% 6%

Here we take a look at the rainfall figures for the months

Name of the State

June

                  July

Till 20th August
Rainfall Avg Rainfall Rainfall Avg Rainfall Rainfall Avg Rainfall
Punjab 21.7 mm 44.4 mm 76.3 mm 186 mm 40 mm 122 mm
Haryana 25.9 mm 45.9 mm 72.2 mm 165.8 mm 28.8 mm 114.1 mm
Marathwada 30.4 mm 143.3 mm 105 mm 187.2 mm 29.2 mm 109.2 mm

The above tables clearly show how the rainfall pattern has been in these sub-divisions. June has been the worst in terms of rain, while July has seen some recovery.

Isolated heavy showers likely in NE, South India to receive scattered rain

Northeast rainThe Monsoon trough is currently running close to the foothills but the western end of the trough is relatively calm due to which there isn’t much activity being observed in the plains and hills of North India.

Temperatures have been rising in the region including Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Shimla that usually witnesses cool and pleasant weather during this time recorded 25.8oC as the maximum temperature on Tuesday, which is 5 degrees above normal. In the plains Delhi recorded 37oC as the maximum, again 3 degrees above normal. Chandigarh too observed maximum settling 2oC above normal at 36oC. The situation is going to remain the same for another couple of days in North India.

East and Northeast India

On the other hand, the eastern end of the Monsoon trough running across the foothills of Bihar, Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh is active, giving good showers at scattered places. Northeast India is the main centre of weather activity at the moment as large parts of the region are receiving light to moderate rain. The intensity is likely to increase with chances of isolated heavy rain in the region in the next 2-3 days. Bihar, Jharkhand will witness some occasional showers during this time.

Central India

Central India has been observing weather conditions similar to that of North India. Here too maximum temperatures have been recording above normal due lack of rain.

South India

Down south there is a cyclonic circulation in coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka which will keep giving scattered rain in the region including Konkan and Goa and North Interior Karnataka. The rain belt is likely to shift further towards North Interior Karnataka, coastal parts of Maharashtra including Mumbai, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada in next 48 hours.

 

Picture courtesy: dandc.eu

TOP TEN RAINIEST CITIES IN INDIA ON TUESDAY

Rain in IndiaWith a whopping 106 mm of rain, Alapuzha in Kerala topped the list of Skymet's rainiest cities on Tuesday. Southwest Monsoon remains active over Northeast India and Sub Himalayan West Bengal where Cherrapunji received 84 mm and Bagdogra 100 mm, respectively. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Northeast India will receive more showers in the coming days. The west coast and interiors of South India could also get some rain during next 24 hours.

Here’s a look at our list of top ten rainiest cities in India on Tuesday:

Cities State Rainfall (in millimeters)
Alapuzha Kerala 106
Bagdogra West Bengal 100
Cherrapunji Meghalaya 84
Deomali Arunachal Pradesh 80
Amini Divi Lakshadweep 67
Sabour Bihar 50
Kailashahar Tripura 44
Wardha Maharashtra 42
Basirhat West Bengal 40
Baharampur West Bengal 36

WEATHER FORECAST FOR MAJOR INDIAN CITIES ON THURSDAY

Weather in IndiaAccording to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the weather in Hyderabad on Tuesday will be cloudy with possibility of rain. Delhi will be the hottest city, followed by Kolkata which is expected to remain humid. Bangalore will receive light Monsoon rain.

Here’s a look at the weather forecast for major Indian cities on Thursday, 20th August.

Cities Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Conditions
Chennai 34°C 27°C Sky will remain cloudy. Evening/night will be warmish.
Hyderabad 33°C 25°C A cloudy day. Possibilities of rain and thundershowers.
Kolkata 35°C 26°C A partly cloudy and sultry day. Rain/thundershowers likely.
Mumbai 31°C 26°C A cloudy sky with stray of rain. Night will be comfortable.
Delhi 38°C 28°C A Sultry day with a partly cloudy sky. A breezy night.
Bangalore 28°C 20°C Day will be cloudy and sultry. Rain is a possibility.







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