Skymet weather

Tropical storm Dolly makes landfall, Norbert likely to skirt away

Tropical storm Dolly made landfall around 0600 UTC near the Tampico city of Mexico. The fourth Atlantic tropical storm of 2014, is currently positioned at latitude 21.9oN and 98oW longitude.

Dolly was located about 50 kilometers south-southwest of Tampico early Wednesday morning. At 0300 UTC (8.30 am) the storm's maximum sustained winds were nearly 45 mph (75 kmph), gusting at 60 mph, and it was moving westwards at a speed of 8 mph.

Looking at the development of Dolly, it was predicted much earlier that Dolly will not strengthen to a hurricane before making a landfall.

On Tuesday morning, Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft declared that Dolly had strengthened sufficiently to be attributed as the fourth named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Consequently, the government of Mexico issued a tropical storm warning for its Gulf Coast from Cabo Rojo, Veracruz northward to Boca de Catan. Government authorities also took necessary measures, raised shelters suspended school on Wednesday. As of now, heavy showersfrom Dolly could bring flash floods and mudslides in mountainous areas.

Latest update on tropical storm Norbert

Another tropical storm Norbert, formed on Tuesday off Mexico's west coast in the Pacific. At 0300 UTC Norbert was situated at latitude 19.2oN and 106.9oW longitude. The storm's maximum sustained winds were around 50 mph or 85 kmph, gusting at 60 mph, and it was moving north/northwestwards at 8 mph.

By late Tuesday evening Norbert was about 195 kilometers southwest of Cabo Corrientes and 480 kilometers southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. According to media reports, Hurricane forecasters predicted that Norbert could approach the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula on Thursday. Norbert is not expected to make landfall and will skirt away.

picture courtesy- CIMSS

Widespread good rain in Jammu & Kashmir

kashmir CroppedMercury plunged as moderate rain showers lashed many parts of the Valley in the last 24 hours. The combination of monsoon system over Rajasthan and passage of western disturbance towards Jammu & Kashmir has given good amounts of rain at almost all the weather stations in the state.

Banihal recorded 93.7 mm of rain in the last 24 hours. Similarly, Qazigund recorded 80.4 mm of rain during this period.

While summer capital Srinagar recorded 20 mm of rain, it was merely 9 mm for Jammu.

Gulmarg, the ski resort, received rain of 32.4 mm in the last 24 hours.

Although there were good rains during the last week of August, Jammu and Kashmir suffered a 37% deficit of rain during this monsoon season.

Out of the three hilly states in the North India –Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and J&K, monsoon season generally remains subdued over J&K. While the normal rainfall for the monsoon season is 534.6 mm for J&K; it is 825.3 for Himachal Pradesh and the highest for Uttarakhand at 1229.1 mm. The rainfall for the current monsoon season till date is 284.6 mm for J&K, 447.7 mm for Himachal Pradesh and 812 mm for Uttarakhand.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, rain is likely to reduce in these states in the next 24 hours as the Western Disturbance responsible for rain will move away from the Western Himalayan region.

 

Chances of EL Nino occurring stand at 60% as Pacific warms up

el nino "The possible development of El Nino is literally a fluid situation. Our eyes are on it", said Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet Weather, earlier this year. Since then Skymet has been closely monitoring the possibilities of El Niño this Monsoon.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is an abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, which occurs every two to five years. Such an event is characterized by occurrence of normal tropical storms and Hurricanes in Eastern Pacific and decrease in storms in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Arabian Sea.

Higher the temperature, lower the pressure, which in turn changes the wind pattern and impacts rainfall figures. According to G.P Sharma, of Skymet’s Meteorological Division, low rainfall during the Monsoon does not necessarily mean it's an El Nino year, but an El Nino year will invariably have below normal Monsoon rainfall in India.

It is believed that El Nino may have contributed to the 1993 Mississippi and 1995 California floods. It is also believed that El Nino contributed to the lack of serious storms such as hurricanes in the North Atlantic which spared states like Florida from serious storm related damage.

Therefore, this indicates that not all El Nino's are the same, nor does the atmosphere always react in the same way from one El-Nino to another.

El Nino affects Monsoon in India

El Nino is closely associated to Monsoon in India, which is often weaker during occurrence of such a phenomenon, although by no means always. 60% of all droughts in India in the last 130 years have been El Nino droughts.

In February, the situation seemed conducive for a poor Monsoon in India. And as we enter mid-April, these observations were turning out to be more accurate. Other meteorological agencies across the world also strongly pointed towards the likelihood of an El Niño weather pattern this year.

El Nino, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, leads to warming of sea surface temperatures above 0.5oC. From the 21st to 25th of May, the surface temperature remained constantly at 0.6oC. This could be attributed to poor performance of Monsoon in India with rain deficiency at 43% till 12th of July.

Thereafter, conditions relaxed and rain deficiency came down to 22% by end of July as the surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific came down to 0oC and even further to -1 oC. However, as of now there seems to be a rising trend in temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.

Equatorial Pacific is divided into four parts Nino 3, Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 1+ 2, for Meteorological analysis. Any occurrence over Nino 3.4 is most relevant for Monsoon in India. Here’s a look at the surface temperatures since August-

Date (2014) Nino 3 Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 1+ 2
 August 4 0.2oC 0.3oC - 0.1oC 0.6oC
 August 11 0.4oC 0.5oC 0.0oC 1.2oC
 August 18 0.5oC 0.4oC 0.0oC 1.2oC
 August 25 0.5oC 0.4oC 0.3oC 1.4oC
September 2 0.4oC 0.5oC 0.4oC 0.8oC

 

How are sea surface temperatures measured?

Under the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA), a number of Buoyes or equipments are deployed between 7o N and 7o S Latitudes in the Pacific. These Buoyes placed in an array fashion, constantly records temperatures, which are further verified with satellite derived temperatures.

As reiterated by Skymet, El Nino is still evolving. As per latest updates by International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of Columbia University the chances of El Nino occurring this year now stand at 60%, peaking during winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

Good rain expected in Delhi in next two days

Rain in DelhiAfter grueling August, September has come as a big relief for Delhiites as the city has been enjoying some lovely weather for the last few days. And further adding to the joy is the forecast of good rain in Delhi in the next two days.

Showers during this period could be spread evenly unlike the patchy nature we have been observing all through the Monsoon season. This spell of rain is likely to prevail till the 8th of August.

Meanwhile, the city again observed light rain. In a span of 24 hours from 8.30 am on Tuesday the Safdarjung Observatory recorded 2.2 mm of rain, Ridge 7.2 mm, Pitampura 3 mm, Pusa 2 mm and Jafarpur 2mm. There has been rain on all first three days of September with heaviest being 36 mm, on 1st September.

Persistent moderate south easterly winds coupled with some good rain are keeping the temperatures in Delhi and its adjoining areas under check. The Safdarjung observatory recorded 34.4°C as the maximum temperature on Tuesday, while the minimum settled at 26°C, which are normal temperatures.

Since the last few days the sky has mostly been overcast, with clouds drifting fast and giving passing showers in the city. The temperatures have consistently recorded close to the normal average of 34°C. The weather is going to remain the same for another 4-5 days.

 

Picture courtesy: newslok.com

Excess rain sets aside dry spell in Central India

rain 3 CroppedMonsoon maintains its momentum as September ushers in a spell of good rain in India concentrating mostly in Central India. With a rain surplus of 148% on the first day and 92% on the second, Monsoon season appears to be highly strong in central part of India comprising Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Chhattisgarh.

Monsoon remained extremely weak in terms of both intensity and coverage till mid-July, particularly in northwestern parts, Gujarat and Central India. Till August end, Central India recorded normal rain of -14% (± 19% considered normal). But as September commences, it begins to show signs of a decent recovery as it received excess rainfall in just two days.

Rain received on 1st September

Saurashtra & Kutch received rain of 357.5 mm making the region’s excess the highest at 483% in the Central India. Konkan & Goa received the maximum rain of 2390 mm followed by Odisha that received rain of 997.1 mm.

With an excess rainfall of 148%, Central India outdid the excess of South Peninsula which received rainfall excess of 82 percent.

Rain received on 2nd September

The excess continued for Saurashtra & Kutch on the second day as the region recorded an excess of 376%, highest in Central India. Chhattisgarh followed with an excess rainfall of 213%.

Outlook till the weekend

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, intensity of rain showers is expected to reduce in the next few days. However, it will pick up over the weekend and is expected to remain strong till the beginning of next week.







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