Indian guar seed futures jumped on bargain-buying and an improvement in export demand for guar gum. Guar seed futures are expected to continue to trade higher in coming days, according to the commodity analysts. Guar gum is by-product produced from guar seed. Rajasthan is the major guar seed producing state in India.
Uncertainty over a policy shift to crop subsidies in China, the world's top producer and consumer of cotton, could spark a burst of demand for imported cotton between September and December. US cotton futures have tumbled to June 2012 lows this week amid a speculator sell-off due to the increasingly bearish supply-demand prospects.
India's soybean harvest will be delayed by a month this year, pushing back new crop soymeal shipments to Southeast Asia until November, traders said. The late arrival of this year's monsoon in the main soybean growing areas of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra pushed back planting of the crop by more than three weeks.
Widespread rains fell over Brazil's drought stricken coffee belt in past days, which will likely kick off generalized flowering to mark the start of the new crop, local forecasters said. Markets will be closely watching the weather over Brazil's coffee belt, which is responsible for the bulk of the world's trade in arabica beans.
Punjab has been one of the worst rainfall deficit sub-divisions in India since the onset of Monsoon. The month of June was 51% deficit, July 59% deficit and August was the worst with a whopping deficit of 75%. As of today the rainfall deficit in the state stands at 64%.
Monsoon rain in Punjab has been so poor that 12 districts in the state are scanty (deficit of 60% and above), while 8 are deficit. There are few districts where the deficit is very large. Barnala is 90% deficit, Patiala and Mansa are 82% deficit, while the deficit in Sangrur stands at 83%.
However, districts like Gurdaspur, Mohali and Pathankot, which are closer to the foothills, are considerably better. The deficit in Gurdaspur and Hoshiyarpur stands at 25% today.
The state has received 147.8 mm of rain this season so far against the average of 414.4 mm, which means it is 64% deficit.
Forecast of good rain
Meanwhile, Skymet Meteorology Division in India forecasts good widespread rain in Punjab, with isolated heavy showers in western parts of the state in the next 3 days. This spell of rain will ease out to some extent the large deficit being witnessed since the beginning of the Monsoon season.
A monsoon system in west Rajasthan, which has a tendency to shift over Punjab and its border areas, will be the reason behind rain in Punjab.
Life is wrecked in Jammu and Kashmir as heavy rains in last three days have caused flash floods, leaving many villages inundated due to incessant rain. River Jhelum has been flowing five feet above danger mark in Srinagar, leaving situation grim in the valley. According to Skymet Meteorology division in India, heavy rains are expected in the next 24 hours and a further spate of flash floods may cause havoc.
At least 23 villages are flooded and over 100 people have been rescued so far from the flood-hit regions of the state. Heavy rain has resulted in landslide in many parts of the state which have demolished several houses. Normal life has been hampered in many parts including Poonch, Rajouri and Kulgam.
September is the least rainy month for J&K. But in the last two days, places like Banihal and Qazigund have witnessed a spate of over 200 mm of rain.
The normal rainfall for September is only 26.6 mm for Srinagar whereas the summer capital of J&K, Srinagar, has recorded 51.8 mm of rain in the last 24 hours. It is the highest amount of rain in Srinagar in span of 24 hours during this month in last one decade.
The situation is similar for Qazigund which received rain of 156.7 mm in the last 24 hours. The city has crossed its 10 year high for the span of 24 hours which was 151.9 mm happened in 1992. The monthly rainfall for the city is normally 56.4 mm.
The situation is expected to remain like this as the Valley may experience a fresh lash of heavy rain in the next 24 hours. However, the situation may improve over the weekend.
This year, sowing of cotton showed a steady increase in India. According to recent reports of Ministry of Agriculture, cotton is sown in 122.51 lakh hectares across the country in 2014 year. Last year cotton is sown in 111.65 lakh hectares across the country. This year, second half of monsoon enhanced the cotton sowing activities.
Asian rice prices are likely to fall over the next few weeks as Thailand and Vietnam compete for demand from Philippines and Indonesia, traders said. Traders expect the Philippines to ask for 500,000 tonnes of rice via a tender or a government-to-government deal after Manila rejected all bids in an August 27 tender due to high prices.
China has approved the import of 10 varieties of Brazilian maize. Ministry of Agriculture of China published the approval of import of 10 genetically modified corn varieties for commercialization. MON88017 (Bayer), MON89034 (Monsanto), NK603 (Monsanto), GA21 (Syngenta) and MIR604 (Syngenta) corn varieties were approved.
According to the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), area sown under soybean during kharif 2014 is reduced 9.6 per cent in MP at 5.65 million hectares, as compared to 6.26 million hectares sowed in kharif 2013. Indian soybean kharif cultivation has recorded a drop of 9 per cent during 2014 at 10.90 million hectares.
Poor Monsoon rain in Northwest India has forced Haryana government to declare the state drought-affected and seek compensation of 4,829.25 crore rupees from the central government. The last time Haryana had declared drought was in the year 2002 when rainfall deficit was 51%.
This year the deficit seems to be even higher. As of today the rainfall deficit in the state stands at 64% with just 141.6 mm of rain being recorded against the average of 393.7 mm (from 1st June till date).
The onset of Southwest Monsoon in June was itself not good for country with 11 sub-divisions being scanty and 20 deficit. Haryana too met a similar fate with the deficit being 44%, marginally above the country deficit of 43%.
In July there was some good rain, particularly in Central and East India, which pulled down the deficit to 22%. But the regional deficit still remained high with Haryana observing a deficit of 46%. In August the rainfall deficit shot up to a whopping 80%.
Some good rain is expected in a couple of days but this spell of rain will not be of much help and the difference will still remain large. Southwest Monsoon will also start withdrawing from mid September, so the state is left with very less time to catch up with the deficit.
Meanwhile, the situation in neighboring Punjab is also alarming as the seasonal rainfall deficit stands at 64%, which means it’s scanty. The picture isn’t rosy in west Uttar Pradesh either where the deficit is 59%.
Picture courtesy: thehindu.com
