Skymet weather

SEPTEMBER  RAINFALL REMAINS DECEPTIVE

Beautiful NortheastMonsoon commences withdrawal from west Rajasthan around first few days of September. However, withdrawal dates keep fluctuating  from season to season and sometimes undergo large variations from the scheduled dates. There is no correlation established between the monthly rainfall and the withdrawal pattern. There are occasions when the withdrawal commences late and the rainfall for the month remains deficit and conversely, the rainfall goes in excess of normal during early or timely withdrawal. Also there is no inference or any direct linkages between  September rainfall and seasonal monsoon performance.  However, on quite a few occasions, it is seen that September rainfall remains normal or above normal  when the overall seasonal performance of monsoon is seen  hovering around average or falling short of it. The last four years data is as given in the following table:

                                                                                                         2010 2011 2012 2013
Seasonal R/F (LPA) 102% 102% 93% 106%
September R/F   112% 108% 112% 92%

Skymet estimates that  first ten days of September  are likely to experience above normal rainfall for the country , particularly North West and Central  India. The rainfall belt and the amounts are likely to shrink in the later half of the month. The total rainfall for the month is likely to remain normal or above normal and it stands least chance to record below normal rainfall.

 

 

Pakistan witnesses extremely heavy rains and massive floods

Rain in PakistanUnder the influence of the first Monsoon system of this season for the region, Indian states of Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab have received extremely heavy rains in the past 48 hours. Rainfall is incessant and floods are unrelenting.

This Monsoon system is causing similar inclement weather conditions over northern parts of Punjab in Pakistan and also Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Torrential rains have wreaked havoc and the death toll has risen to 63.

Worst affected areas are western parts of POK and districts of Sialkot, Rawalpindi and Lahore. Rivers like Jhelum and Chenab are flowing much above the danger mark and also breaching the embankments, resulting in collapse of infrastructure and inundation of inhibited areas. Alerts have been sounded by the administration for the people to evacuate their homes.

The rainfall amounts are very heavy at places and 24 hours rainfall for few stations is:

Jhelum -135 mm , Islamabad – 298 mm Kakul – 118 mm, Balakot – 79 mm, Bhawalnagar – 60 mm Lahore -60 mm, Sargodha – 50 mm. Spell of heavy rainfall is expected to last for another 48 hours, with a gradual reduction in intensity.

It is to be noted that Monsoon rain in Pakistan is usually not heavy, with September observing very little rain. This spell of rain in Pakistan is unprecedented and has probably happened in a decade. The Western Disturbance that is giving rain in Jammu and Kashmir is also responsible for rain in Pakistan.

Picture courtesy: tamilsway.com

Massive downpour to reduce in next 48 hours in J&K

Incessant rain, during this week that has flooded several parts of Jammu and Kashmir, is expected to reduce its intensity in the next two days. Heavy downpour that has washed away several villages and left numerous people homeless in J&K is likely to tone down as the weekend approaches.
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In the last 24 hours, many weather stations in J&K have received heavy rains, leading to havoc in the already flood-stricken Jammu and Kashmir. While it was high for Govindpura at 202 mm and 152 mm for Kawa, it was 54 mm for Pahalgam, 49 mm for Srinagar and 140 for Shopian. Raipur and Karalian in Samba district received rain of 68 mm and 91 mm respectively in the last 24 hours. It was 166 mm for Bakore in Akhnoor district.

Heavy rains have affected many parts of South Kashmir, including Pulwama, Anantnag while it left Kulgam district submerged. The water level has also risen in river Jhelum which is 12 feet above the danger mark.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, rain is likely to reduce in the state in the next 48 hours as the Western Disturbance responsible for rain will move away from the Western Himalayan region.

 

Top ten rainies cities in India on Thursday

Kashmir rainAfter recording 196.4 mm of heavy rain, Sriganganagar in Rajasthan topped the list of rainiest cities in India on Thursday. Muktasar, Faridkot and Ferozepur in Punjab are some new entrants to the list. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, isolated heavy showers will be experienced in Punjab in next 24 hours.

Here’s a look at our list of top ten Rainiest cities in India on Thursday:

Cities State Rainfall (in millimeters)
Sriganganagar Rajasthan 196.4
Shopian Jammu & Kashmir 140
Pulwama Jammu & Kashmir 138
Bhira Maharashtra 108
Muktasar Punjab 92
Pulbani Odisha 92
Baramulla Jammu & Kashmir 84
Idar Gujarat 82.3
Bhubaneswar Odisha 78.8
Faridkot Punjab 73

 

Picture courtesy: kashmirnewz.com

September rains may cover up August deficit in Mumbai

Even though Mumbai misses its monthly average rain for August, September commences on a positive note. In just five days, the city receives over two-third of normal rainfall for September and hopes to recover the August deficit soon.

The rainfall for first five days in September has been 111 mm, 43 mm, 27 mm, 6 mm and 27 mm respectively. With a total of 219 mm rainfall received in just five days, September seems to be inching towards its monthly average of 312 mm.

Though it has rained every day in August, the city of dreams has failed to cover its monthly average. It only received 456.7 mm of rain as against the monthly average of 529.7 mm, thus falling short by 13 percent. However, the nearby cities including Goa and Ratnagiri received good rain showers for the same month.

While August was grim, July this year was still better as the city received record breaking rainfall of 1461 mm in July against the long period average of 800 mm.

However, due to the monsoon system over Gujarat and Bay of Bengal, Mumbai is expected to receive good rain showers that will continue for next few days, helping the city make up for the August rain deficit in September.

Heavy rain in Punjab continues for second day, reduces deficit

Punjab rainAs predicted on Thursday by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Punjab, particularly the western parts of the state observed some god rain. In a span of 24 hours from 8.30 am on Thursday Amritsar observed 64 mm of rain, Muktsar 92 mm, Pathankot 73 mm, Ferozepur 67 mm, Gurdaspur 52 mm, Ropar 45 mm, Patiala 33 mm, Taran Taran 27 mm and Kapurthala 11 mm.

The Monsoon system in west Rajasthan coupled with the Western Disturbance in Jammu and Kashmir is giving good rain in Punjab.

From being scanty by 64%, the state has showed some recovery and the rainfall deficit has slipped down to 59% due to good rain in the last two days. In fact, rainfall in the state was 91% surplus on 3rd September. Based on one day showers, from 3rd to 4th September the state received 23.2 mm of rain against the average of 4.2 mm, which is 452% higher than the normal.

Meanwhile, rain is going to reduce in the state in next 24 hours, but northern and western parts of the state will continue to receive moderate rain with isolated heavy in pockets.

Punjab has been one of the worst rainfall deficit sub-divisions in India since the onset of Monsoon. The month of June was 51% deficit, July 59% deficit and August was the worst with a whopping deficit of 75%. At present the deficit stands at 59%.

Picture courtesy: yespunjab.com







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