Skymet weather

Ten days Monsoon forecast - 11th to 20th September

Monsoon rainPresently there is a system in west Madhya Pradesh that is likely to give rain in east and central parts of the country in next 3-4 days.

Let’s take a look at the updates on Southwest Monsoon in India for the coming ten days-

11th to 13th September

  • There will be less weather activity over Punjab, Haryana and the hilly states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during this time. However, scattered rain will be observed over Delhi, east Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh due to the weather system in west Madhya Pradesh.
  • Central India will experience fairly widespread light rain during this period
  • East and Northeast India will also observe scattered light rain with moderate showers at few places
  • Peninsular India will witness minimal weather activity, while the west coast will have scattered rain, mostly confined to coastal Karnataka and Konkan and Goa

14th to 16th September

  • We will see some reversal of wind pattern in North India. Moist easterly winds will change to become dry northwesterly in lower levels. Rainfall will reduce further and temperatures will rise
  • East and Northeast India will continue to receive scattered rain with heavy in pockets, particularly along the foothills of Bihar and Sub Himalayan West Bengal
  • Central India will also experience decrease in rainfall activity. Here also moist winds will give way to relatively dry northwesterly winds. Sky will be partially cloudy and temperatures will observe a marginal change
  • The weather in South India will continue to remain the same with northwest winds blowing

17th to 20th September

  • Monsoon may commence withdrawal anytime, subject to sustenance in the change in weather parameters like winds, temperatures and humidity
  • The entire country will experience a dip in weather activity during this time

Delhi witnesses second wet spell of September

Delhi rainAfter observing a lull in the month of August, September started on a positive note for Delhi. First day of September itself witnessed 36 mm of rainfall, with cumulative rainfall for initial five days at 55 mm of rainfall.  Moving on further, the city observed dry spell for the period of 6th to 10th September, due to the erratic behaviour of the rains.

However, the city experienced a wet spell again on 11th of September, although the rains were patchy and light in nature. Areas like Mangeshpur, Najafgarh and Zafarpur recorded 1 mm of rainfall, while Faridabad and Yamuna complex received 2mm of rainfall.  Meanwhile Aaya Nagar observed the maximum amount of rainfall of 29 mm on 10th of September.  So far, city has received 56 mm of rainfall against the normal of 121 mm.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, National capital region will continue to experience patchy showers over the next three-four days. Post that, Delhi might again enter into a dry spell.

The recent downpour has brought great relief for Delhiites, relieving them from heat and humidity.  The weather has become extremely pleasant, making nights relatively cooler. The city recorded the maximum temperature of 36°C on Wednesday, while the minimum temperature was 25.2°C.

Delhi has not received good rain this monsoon season so far. Due to lack of rain, temperatures were also on a record- breaking spree. The Safdarjung Observatory on 26th August had observed a maximum temperature of 39.4°C which was highest in the last 20 years. Maximums were consistently recording 5-6 degrees above normal before the spell of rain on the 28th of August.

Tropical storm Odile forms off Mexico Coast

Tropical Depression-15E which had formed on Wednesday is gradually intensifying into a tropical storm.  The tropical storm Odile is strengthening off the coast of southern Mexico and the first tropical storm watch has been posted for the Mexican coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo.

As the storm strengthens, the wind speed is likely to increase which may threaten widespread power outages along the coastlines. It may also convert into a hurricane.

This is a relatively short stretch of coast, and for the present the watches do not include the resort cities of Acapulco or Puerto Vallarta.

Till now Odile remains in a favourable environment of low to moderate shear and over very warm waters. The only factor that could limit its strengthening would be its grazing with the coast.

At this stage it is possible for Odile to move in two possible directions.

One option is for the system to move far enough offshore such that only surf and rip currents are possible from near Manzanillo northward to the Baja Peninsula.

In another scenario, Odile may move on a track much closer to the coast, bringing the threat of high winds, surge flooding and torrential rain to the above-mentioned areas.

If Odile decides to take the second course, closer to the coast, the closest approach of the center to the southwest Mexican coasts of Jalisco, Colima and possibly Michoacan would occur late Friday into Saturday, and in the southern Baja peninsula late Sunday into Monday.

 

Greenest cities of India

Green IndiaIndia is a country of diverse flora and fauna, with some mesmerising and scenic beauty. Let's have a look at some green cities of India.

Chandigarh:  This city is one of the greenest and cleanest cities of India. Located near the foothills of the Shivalik range of the Himalayas, Chandigarh is the first planned city of the country, with the world renowned architecture. The entire city is covered by dense Banyan and Eucalyptus plantations along with Asoka, Cassia, Mulberry and other trees. The city is surrounded by forests that sustain several animal and plant species. Deers, Sambars, Barking Deers, Parrots, Woodpeckers and Peacocks are the inhabitants of these forests.  Although the city observes extreme weather conditions, the availability of good underwater and conducive temperature help in sustaining its greenery.  Hence, both its weather and eco-friendly environment makes it one of the best cities to live in India.

Nagpur: Famously known as the Orange city, it is considered to be the second greenest city of India. Nagpur falls under Vidarbha region of Maharashtra and is known for its rich biodiversity, forest resources, greenery, mineral wealth and ethnicity.  The lush green city is covered with hills and lazy winding rivers, housing several wildlife sanctuaries, forts, temples and geological sites. The forests around the city offer best quality teak plantations. The city experiences extreme summer condition but receives sufficient amount of rainfall making the weather pleasant from October onwards till February.

Thiruvananthapuram: Formerly known as Trivandrum, it is the capital of southern state of Kerala, famously called “God’s own country“. Trivandrum is a clean city built on seven hills by the sea shore and is named after the sacred snake, Anantha. The city is considered to be one of the most beautiful cities of Kerala with scenic beauty, hills, temples, museums, beaches and natural beauty. The city attracts thousands of domestic as well as international tourists every year, who are looking forward to spend some leisure time in nature's lap, especially backwaters and houseboat. The city does not receive as heavy rainfall as its adjacent cities but manages to get ample amount of rainfall to sustain its green look.

Pune:  Located at foothills of Sahyadri Mountains, the hilly city of Pune is surrounded by mountains and lush green forests, which makes it one of the greenest cities in the country. The popular attractions of Pune include its exotic gardens, beaches, lakes, libraries and museums to name a few. The best attraction of the city is its climate, which remains pleasant throughout the year.  The city observes pleasant weather for most of the year, though it gets hotter during the months of April and May.

Delhi:  The Capital of India is ranked third in terms of percentage of geographical area under tree cover after Lakshadweep and Chandigarh. Also called as walled city, it is known for its lush greenery scattered around the city, broad roads, gardens and historical monuments. Delhi experiences extreme summer and winter conditions. Despite the fact that the city is most populated and polluted, it continues to enjoy its greenery status. However, the threat of losing this status looms large over the capital. Absence of large water bodies and continuous development of concrete infrastructure is making temperatures rise, resulting in depletion of its green cover. It will be an alarming situation soon, if we continue on the similar lines.

Gandhinagar:  The capital of Gujarat is another planned city of the country located on the bank of Sabarmati River and is clearly one of the greenest cities in India. State government has robust plans and provisions for parks, extensive planting and a recreational area along the river that gives the city a green garden atmosphere. As per a report, the city has 22 trees per person and 425 trees per hectare. It has also garnered the title of being the greenest capital in the world. The city experiences two summer seasons and pleasant mild winters.

Bangalore:  The city famously known as 'Silicon Valley of India' is also called “the Garden City”. The fastest growing city experiences pleasant weather conditions throughout the year accounting to its geographical features. Located at the heart of Mysore plateau, the city is blessed with scenic gardens, beautiful parks and natural lakes.

Cumulative rainfall deficit stagnates, drought scare not yet over

There is only a fortnight left for the country to observe some more active Monsoon conditions, after which the four-month long Monsoon season in India will come to an end.

This has already raised concerns amongst weathermen who are keeping an eye on the cumulative rainfall deficit, which currently stands at 11% - a condition that could be termed as drought in meteorological terms. The most essential condition amongst other weather parameters to declare a drought is that the rainfall deficiency should be more than 10%.

However, the first week of September had raised hopes of the cumulative deficit improving and becoming normal due to some very good rain observed in most parts of the country, particularly North India. The deficit which was 15% on 3rd of September had dropped to 14% on 4th September. It slipped further to 12% on 6th of September but after that it stagnated and remained close to 11%.

Notably, rainfall during September is the lowest with monthly average being 173 mm out of which the country has already received 2/3rd (103 mm) of rainfall. The daily average rain also decreases during this month and stays close to 6 mm. Therefore any further decrease in rainfall will only push the deficit up marginally. In worst case scenario, where the daily rainfall is nil the deficit will increase only by decimal points. So there is high chance of the deficit stagnating and staying close to 11% for the next one week.

But, if there is good rain for the next few days the deficit could drop drastically. However, that does not seem to be the case for now.

 

Water recedes but anger mounts in J&K

Homeless and trapped in water, the frustration of stranded people in the flood stricken areas of J&K turns into anger as the hope of speedy rescue fades away.

Even as rescue workers scramble to the marooned residents in parts of J&K, anger mounts amongst the injured and abandoned people as rescue operations fail to provide basic amenities such as drinkable water and food.

Degree of Difficulty
J&K is reported to be hit by one of the deadliest floods. More than 200 people have been killed while over 6 lakh people have been affected by the heavy rains that caused flash floods in J&K in the past week. Even as people battle for survival, the immeasurable magnitude of the disaster is hampering the rescue work. Low connectivity and communication are also major impediments for the resources to reach the areas on time. Even as survivors get transferred to the hospitals, low supplies of lifesaving drugs are hampering the timely relief.

Skilled Operation
J&K is reported to be hit by one of the deadliest floods. Yet Indian Army, Navy and Airforce have extended helping hands to the people caught in affected areas. More than 100 army boats belonging to the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) are involved in the rescue operation. Army has distributed almost 7000 blankets along with water and food items. The Armed Forces Medical Services has sent 80 medical teams.

Though the government cannot be blamed for the breakdown of communication system or the widespread havoc in the Valley, the delay in restoration is surely something that requires immediate attention of both state and central government. While the limited manpower involved in rescue work seems to be a concern, precision required for winching people from rooftops and affected areas is another area of concern.

Though the rain has stopped in J&K, water level is still on rise in Dal Lake posing a threat of slow recovery and relief from the floods.

Clearly a response from the ministries is not enough to tackle this deteriorating situation but actions.

 

Track of Monsoon system suggests possible retreat of Southwest Monsoon

Monsoon CloudsThe four-month long Monsoon season, which runs from June to September, brings 70% of the country's annual rainfall. The initial phase of Southwest Monsoon this year was dominated by an evolving El Nino.

In February, the situation seemed conducive for a poor Monsoon in India. And as we entered mid-April, these observations turned out to be more accurate. From the 21st to 25th of May, the surface temperature remained constantly at 0.6oC in equatorial Pacific. This could be attributed to poor performance of Monsoon in India with rain deficiency at 43% till 12th of July. Thereafter, conditions relaxed and rain deficiency came down to 22% by end of July as the surface temperature slipped to 0oC and even further to -1oC.

Withdrawal is generally not attempted before 1st of September and commences from extreme west Rajasthan. As Southwest Monsoon approaches the withdrawal phase from a particular region, certain conditions become prevalent- change of wind pattern, reduction in cloud cover, decrease in humidity, cessation of rain, sporadic rain and temporary rising tendency of temperatures.

Last year, the Monsoon started withdrawing from Rajasthan by 9th of September and from Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat by the 19th. This year, the track of the present Monsoon system seems to be suggesting a possible retreat of Southwest Monsoon. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, this year, Southwest Monsoon is likely to withdraw from west Rajasthan anytime in the coming week.

Monsoon systems over Central India

The present Monsoon system over Central India, brought widespread light to good amounts of rain, with heavy fall in pockets, over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, south Rajasthan, north Maharashtra and Konkan & Goa in the initial three days. The well-marked low pressure area then slowed down, weakened into a cyclonic circulation and re-curved to bring rain over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Uttar Pradesh. Such systems generally have a tendency to weaken after re-curving and bring only light rain. Though rain has been widespread it hasn’t helped in bringing down the cumulative rain deficiency, sitting at 11% since the 6th of September.

This system behaved differently from the previous system, which reached the hilly states of North India and played in tandem with the Western Disturbance to bring heavy rain over the region.

The track of the present system will suggest the possible retreat of Monsoon and cessation of rain from Northwest India. Successive systems developing over the Bay of Bengal will dictate the withdrawal line of Monsoon from India. Rain will now be sporadic in nature and not help in reduction of the cumulative rain deficiency, which could show a marginal rise.

Rain will be mainly light with isolated heavy falls due to localised activities. The cumulative daily rainfall will remain less than the average rainfall of the day.







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