In Bangladesh, for marketing year (MY) 2014/15, Post estimate for total rice area and production is revised down to 11.8 million hectares and 34.6 million tons on lower rice acreage. The MY 2014/15 rice import forecast is raised to 500,000 tons on less rice production, population growth and expectations of competitive import prices.
India will be the world's No. 1 cotton grower, ousting China from the top spot for the first time in over 30 years, USDA said, reflecting a dramatic shift in global supplies amid uncertainty over Beijing's farm policy. It will mark the end of China's dominance of the global cotton market just as Beijing scraps its stockpiling.
Monsoon in India started on a poor note this year, with the national cumulative deficit being 43% in June, 22% in July and 17% in August. At present the deficit is around 11%. Bearing the brunt of weak Monsoon is the northeast region, which is observing a rainfall deficit of 15 per cent.
The region includes states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura. As on 14th September, the rainfall is still deficit in most of these northeastern states. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (NMMT) are observing a deficit of 30%, while Assam and Meghalaya are relatively better, with 18 per cent behind the normal average. Arunachal Pradesh is the only state to surpass the normal with surplus of one per cent till now.
So far, Guwahati has received 43.5 mm of rainfall against September normal of 194.4 mm. Meanwhile Agartala and Imphal have observed 18.2 mm and 22.1 mm of rainfall against the normal of 111.5 mm and 227.6 mm, respectively.
The region had observed some good rainfall on the 1st and 2nd of September due to movement of effective active western disturbance along the Himalayan region. However, the rainfall reduced significantly 3rd September onwards and the region is presently facing a dry spell, except a few pockets adjacent to the Himalayan region.
Northeast India generally observes heavy rain before the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon during the last week of September. This time also, heavy showers are expected 19th of September onwards for a couple of days, according to the Skymet Meteorology Division in India. However, noting the fact that normal average rainfall is too high, it is unlikely that these heavy spell will cover the deficit.
According to Skymet the region including Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh will experience scattered moderate rainfall in next 72 hours with a gradual increase in intensity. The day temperature in the region is staying marginally above normal due to scarcity of rain over the area. However, it is likely to come down to normal or below normal in coming days. The maximum temperature for Guwahati, Shilong, Imphal and Agartala recorded on Saturday are 36°C, 24.1°C, 32.2°C and 32.8°C, respectively, although the minimum temperature is close to normal.
September commenced on a very positive note for Mumbai and its suburbs, with the city recovering from the August rain deficit and moving towards the surplus by 112 per cent.
The first week of the month itself observed over two-third of the normal rainfall. Rainfall for first five days in September has been 111 mm, 43 mm, 27 mm, 6 mm and 27 mm respectively, while suburb Thane recorded 110.3 mm of rainfall and 68.2 mm on 1st and 2nd September. However, a downtrend was noticed on the following days. Moving on further, fresh spells of rainfall affected the coastal area and 10th September onwards, Mumbai once again witnessed moderate rainfall over the areas.
As on 14th September, Thane recorded 377.4 mm of rainfall, surpassing its monthly normal average of 312.3 mm. With this, the city has recovered from August rain deficit and is now surplus. As we move towards the withdrawal phase of Southwest Monsoon, there will be reduction in rainfall but heavy spell is expected once again before the final withdrawal of the Monsoon.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Mumbai and its suburbs will continue to witness light rain over the next 48 hours and reduce gradually. The maximum temperature recorded on September 14 was 31.3°C, while minimum was 25.8°C. Marginal increase in the temperature is expected in coming days but weather will remain pleasant, especially during the evening.
Despite the fact that it rained almost every day in August, the city of dreams failed to cover its monthly average. It only received 456.7 mm of rain as against the monthly average of 529.7 mm, thus falling short by 13 percent.
Right after Monsoon comes the season of festivities, bringing a reprieve from daily grind, where different communities celebrate ritually diverse festivals. Each festival in India has multifaceted significance and is religiously marked by various practices such as fasting, abstinence, etc. Festivals are an occasion to celebrate with great grandeur and what could be better than Durga Puja for inhabitants of Kolkata.
Goddess Durga is the embodiment of ‘shakti’, she is known to be the divine feminine force governing all cosmic creation, existence and change. It is a popular belief that Durga came into existence from the collective energies of Shiva, Vishnu and Brahma, to conquer the demon Mahishasura who could not be defeated by any god or man.
Durga, meaning ‘the impenetrable’ in Sanskrit, is also regarded as the mother of Ganesha and Kartikeya, and is considered to be the demon-fighting form of Lord Shiva's wife, Parvati.
The beginning of autumn is marked by the Navratri festival or Durga Puja in West Bengal. Durga Puja or Durgotsava is the largest and most awaited festival of the year for Bengali Hindus. Durga is honoured with great fervour on her annual visit to her ancestral home, along with her children.
Weather in Kolkata during Durga Puja
The sub-division of West Bengal has not fared well in terms of Monsoon rain this year. The percentage of cumulative rain deficiency has recovered much in last few weeks and now stands at 15%.
In fact the month of September also started on a good note and fairly good showers were witnessed. On the first 3 days of the month, Kolkata received 10 mm, 31 mm and 25 mm of rain, respectively. Rainfall reduced thereafter, but the ‘City of Joy’ constantly experienced rainy days since then. The city has received 90 mm of rain so far and we can expect light rain for the coming days as well.
As Durga Puja this year will be celebrated in the last week of September, celebrations could be hampered as there is forecast of rain throughout the month. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, in the absence of rain, weather will be hot and humid with maximum in mid-thirties and minimums in mid-twenties.
Southwest Monsoon in India is conceived as a complex phenomenon. A cautious approach is generally taken before announcing onset or withdrawal of Monsoon in India.
July and August are generally the active Monsoon months for the entire country. June is the onset month which witnesses an outburst of rain while, September is the withdrawal month, receiving more of sporadic rain.
Withdrawal is generally not attempted before 1st of September and commences from extreme west Rajasthan. As Southwest Monsoon approaches the withdrawal phase from a particular region, certain conditions become prevalent- change of wind pattern, reduction in cloud cover, decrease in humidity, cessation of rain, sporadic rain and temporary rising tendency of temperatures.
Last year, the monsoon started withdrawing from Rajasthan by 9th of September and from Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat by the 19th. This year, the track of the present Monsoon system seems to be suggesting a possible retreat of Southwest Monsoon.
Announcement of withdrawal of Monsoon
According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, this year, Southwest Monsoon is likely to withdraw from west Rajasthan anytime in the coming week.
The prevailing situation now seems conducive for withdrawal of Monsoon as there has not been any rain in west Rajasthan in last few days. The cities of Barmer, Bikaner, Jodhpur and Jaisalmer have recorded nil rainfall. However, east Rajasthan has been receiving some rainfall.
A bigger picture is taken into consideration, before announcing withdrawal of Monsoon from west Rajasthan. To be more precise, commencement of withdrawal is not announced from the western parts of the state, even if east Rajasthan receives some rain.
Few stations of Pakistan, along the border of Rajasthan have also been dry. Cities like Bahawalnagar, Bahawalpur, Khanpur, Rohri, Pad Idan, Nawabshah, Chhor and Hyderabd have all been dry.
The four-month long Monsoon season, which runs from June to September, brings 70% of the country's annual rainfall. The initial phase of Southwest Monsoon this year was dominated by an evolving El Nino.
Southwest Monsoon, after ushering in made a sluggish start with subdued activity in the initial phase and made a very slow advancement. After poor Monsoon rains in June, July too commenced with a 43% deficit – highest for the season - and remained so till 12th July. The month ended with a cumulative deficiency of 22% while at present rain deficit stands at 11%. In fact, the cumulative deficiency has been stagnant at 11% for the 6th consecutive day.
The track of Monsoon systems has been suggesting the possible retreat of Monsoon and cessation of rain from Northwest India. Successive systems developing over the Bay of Bengal will dictate the withdrawal line of Monsoon from India. Rain will now be sporadic in nature and not help in reduction of the cumulative rain deficiency, which could show a marginal rise.
A second round of summer snow has struck Calgary, Alberta and Canada, snarling traffic, downing trees and triggering power outages. However this time, it was not restricted to Canada alone, as it spilled over to North USA as well.
A Legacy of Snow
Calgary International Airport reported 11.8 centimeters (about 4.6 inches) of snow on Monday, another 1.3 centimeters (about 0.5 inches) on Tuesday and then 15.1 centimeters (about 5.9 inches) on Wednesday.
Multiple rounds of snow were reported from Monday to Wednesday, across a large part of Canada's Alberta province, including its largest city, Calgary. On Tuesday, a section of the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park over Logan Pass was closed by park officials due to snow.
Great Falls, Montana, witnessed its earliest first snow of the season in 22 years on Tuesday night. Only six other years, since 1892, witnessed snow before September 9 in Great Falls, according to the National Weather Service. Though it was shocking to many, it wasn't the city's earliest late-summer snowfall. Calgary recorded 11.7 centimeters (just under 5 inches) of snow on September 8 in 1921, according to Environment Canada statistics.
The earliest single-day snowfall of 10 centimeters (4 inches) or more was received on September 6, 1972, but Calgary had a two-day total of 10.4 centimeters on August, 25-26, 1900. It even snowed in Calgary once in July, when 0.3 centimeter (0.1 inch) fell on July 23, 1918.
September has, on average, 1-2 days of measurable snow in Calgary. On average, only one September day every three years sees at least 5 centimeters (just under 2 inches) of snow. Calgary's three-day total of 28.2 centimeters (about 11.1 inches) is on par with average snowfall for September, October and November, combined (31 centimeters), according to Environment Canada, the country's equivalent of the National Weather Service.
This week's snow was an attention-grabber, especially coming so early in the month and just a day after Sunday's high of 78 degrees Fahrenheit. Some of that snow spilled over the international border, delivering over a foot of snow to the Bighorn Mountains west of Sheridan, Wyoming, and the earliest measurable snowfall on record in Rapid City, South Dakota. Over a foot of snow was reported in parts of Wyoming Thursday as an unusually early snowstorm spread southeastward with 12 days of summer still remaining.
The season's first frost and freeze is also on the way for parts of the Rockies, Plains, Northwest, and Upper Midwest this week.
Summer Snow!
Thursday morning brought the earliest measurable snow on record to Rapid City, South Dakota. Snow piled up to 8 inches deep in the Black Hills near Custer, South Dakota. Farther west, the snow was even heavier in parts of northern Wyoming, where up to 14 inches fell near the town of Story in Sheridan County. Broken branches, downed trees and power outages resulted from the heavy, wet snow in that area.
picture courtesy - Blue Pueblo
Vietnam, the top producer and main player in the black pepper market, has been keenly following the Indian exchange. Meanwhile, taking cues from the Indian futures market Vietnamese farmers and collectors are reportedly holding back their pepper produce. Brazil is following Vietnam’s lead, with limited stocks of pepper.
The downtrend in global raw sugar prices on higher production in Brazil is posing a fresh set of challenges for Indian sugar exporters. This is at a time when millers, ahead of the crushing season, keenly await the Government’s decision on export subsidy for October and November. Cane crushing for the upcoming season will begin soon.
In Bangladesh, for marketing year (MY) 2014/15, Post estimate for total rice area and production is revised down to 11.8 million hectares and 34.6 million tons on lower rice acreage. The MY 2014/15 rice import forecast is raised to 500,000 tons on less rice production, population growth and expectations of competitive import prices.
India will be the world's No. 1 cotton grower, ousting China from the top spot for the first time in over 30 years, USDA said, reflecting a dramatic shift in global supplies amid uncertainty over Beijing's farm policy. It will mark the end of China's dominance of the global cotton market just as Beijing scraps its stockpiling.
