Typhoon Kalmaegi, since its formation in the Western Pacific has moved very fast affecting Phillipines and then striking Hainan in China and now north coastal Vietnam. It has travelled from Phillipines to Vietnam in just about 3 days causing large scale destruction in these areas. The typhoon brought heavy rain to Tonkin Gulf and northern parts of Vietnman on Tuesday evening. While making landfall it had winds in gusts of 150 kmph. People living on the shores and low lying areas had to be evacuated and moved to safer places by the local authorities.
Meanwhile,the Category I hurricane has weakened to a depression and is lying close to the Myanmar region. Though, the typhoon will weakened further before reaching Myanmar, it still has the potential to affect the wind pattern and influence weather condition in the country including Northeast India. We can expect some rain in the region in next 48 hours.
There is another system originating from the same pocket (West Pacific) heading for Phillipines. It is currently positioned at 12⁰N Latitude and 103⁰E Longitude in the open sea.
The Pacific Ocean has an active stormy season commencing from September and lasting till December. The intensity of these systems vary largely from a tropical depression to super typhoon. The West Pacific was struck by four CAT-5 typhoons last year during the period between September and December 2013. A vast stretch of coastline of Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, China, Japan and Korea remains under threat of strong tropical storms, frequently achieving typhoon status. These systems have devastating potential and are punched with a deadly combination of gale winds and torrential rains.
"The possible development of El Nino is literally a fluid situation. Our eyes are on it", said Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet Weather, earlier this year. Since then Skymet has been closely monitoring the possibilities of El Nino this Monsoon.
El Nino is a global phenomenon and a lot of international agencies closely follow its development and progress. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is one such agency which monitors El Nino right from its initial indications to its end and issues the following advices-
El Nino Watch- The CPC issues a bulletin indicating conditions favourable for development of EL Nino and La Nina with a notice period of 6 months.
El Nino Advisory (presently in vogue)- It is issued when El Nino or La Nina are observed and expected to continue.
Final El Nino Advisory- This is issued when El Nino or La Nina conditions have ended.
What is an El Nino?
As have been reiterated by Skymet, El Nino is an abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, which occurs every two to five years. Such an event is characterized by occurrence of normal tropical storms and Hurricanes in Eastern Pacific and decrease in storms in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Arabian Sea.
Higher temperature and lower pressure changes the wind pattern and impacts rainfall figures. According to G.P Sharma, of Skymet’s Meteorological Division, low rainfall during the Monsoon does not necessarily mean it's an El Nino year, but an El Nino year will invariably have below normal Monsoon rainfall in India.
It is believed that El Nino may have contributed to the 1993 Mississippi and 1995 California floods. It is also believed that El Nino contributed to the lack of serious storms such as hurricanes in the North Atlantic which spared states like Florida from serious storm related damage.
Therefore, this indicates that not all El Nino's are the same, nor does the atmosphere always react in the same way from one El-Nino to another.
El Nino affects Monsoon in India
El Nino is closely associated to Monsoon in India, which is often weaker during occurrence of such a phenomenon, although by no means always. 60% of all droughts in India in the last 130 years have been El Nino droughts.
In February, the situation seemed conducive for a poor Monsoon in India. And as we entered mid-April, these observations were turning out to be more accurate. Other meteorological agencies across the world also strongly pointed towards the likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern this year.
El Nino, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, leads to warming of sea surface temperature (SST) above 0.5oC. From the 21st to 25th of May, the surface temperature remained constantly at 0.6oC. This could be attributed to poor performance of Monsoon in India with rain deficiency at 43% till 12th of July.
Thereafter, conditions relaxed and rain deficiency came down to 22% by end of July as the surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific came down to 0oC and even further to -1 oC. However, as of now there seems to be a rising trend in temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.
Equatorial Pacific is divided into four parts Nino 3, Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 1+ 2, for Meteorological analysis. Any occurrence over Nino 3.4 is most relevant for Monsoon in India.
How are sea surface temperatures measured?
Under the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA), a number of Buoyes or equipments are deployed between 7o N and 7o S Latitudes in the Pacific. These Buoyes placed in an array fashion, constantly records temperatures, which are further verified with satellite derived temperatures.
As reiterated by Skymet, El Nino is still evolving. As per latest updates by International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of Columbia University the chances of El Nino occurring this year now stand at 60%, peaking during winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Here’s a look at the SST since August-
| Date (2014) | Nino 3 | Nino 4 | Nino 3.4 | Nino 1+ 2 |
| August 4 | 0.2oC | 0.3oC | - 0.1oC | 0.6oC |
| August 11 | 0.4oC | 0.5oC | 0.0oC | 1.2oC |
| August 18 | 0.5oC | 0.4oC | 0.0oC | 1.2oC |
| August 25 | 0.5oC | 0.4oC | 0.3oC | 1.4oC |
| September 2 | 0.4oC | 0.5oC | 0.4oC | 0.8oC |
| September 9 | 0.4oC | 0.5oC | 0.4oC | 1.2oC |
| September 16 | 0.4oC | 0.7oC | 0.5oC | 0.7oC |
Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is based on SST departures from average in the Nino 3.4 region. At present a positive equatorial SST anomalies continue across most parts of the Pacific Ocean.
While El Nino is characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC, La Nina is characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
The figure below shows that in a three month period from June to August, the average temperature has always been positive during El Nino years (2002 and 2009). However, this year the temperature is 0.0, indicating a deflating or weak El Nino. The ONI has not inched towards the threshold value and El Nino will not be a strong one even if it peaks during winter months in the Norther Hemisphere.
Picture courtesy- CPL and Snowbrains
Monsoon in India has been an underperformer in 2014 so far. National cumulative rainfall deficiency is still maintained at 11 per cent with an increasing trend. As the Southwest monsoon heads towards the withdrawal phase, country is observing a sharp decline in rain over the last week.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the rainfall activity has declined by almost 25% to 30% against the daily average rainfall. September 14 witnessed a deficit of 32 per cent, while it was 26 per cent for September 15 and 32 per cent for September 16, respectively. Let us have a look at the weather forecast for the country over the next 48 hours.
Northwest Region: The region, including the hilly areas, has been experiencing clear weather sky for the past 24 hours with no major rainfall activity. According to Skymet, there are also no indicators for any significant rain in next 48 hours over the region. The overall situation suggests the commencement of withdrawal of Southwest monsoon in India.
Central Region: Central parts of India have also been observing similar weather conditions in past few days. Though Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have witnessed light showers at few stations, most of the stations have remained dry. As we enter into the second half of September, the region is witnessing an anticyclonic pattern of wind flow, especially in Madhya Pradesh.
East and Northeast Region: According to Skymet, the region has been witnessing scattered rainfall activity for the past week and similar weather conditions are expected to prevail over next few days. However, the Northeast region will witness an increase in rainfall activity in coming two to three days, as the typhoon Kalmaegi is likely to reach Myanmar region, which is in the proximity of Northeast. Hence, we can expect some moderate rain in some pockets, particularly in Meghalaya.
Southern Region: This region has been observing light rain over the last two to three days. As per Skymet, the region will continue with the similar pattern for the coming day as well. Coastal parts such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and some interior pockets will receive goods showers of moderate intensity. This activity is in association with the monsoon low pressure, which is marked over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal parts of Andhra Pradesh. We are also expecting light showers along the west coast for the next two-three days.
Minimal interruption from the inclement weather along with receding water level has sped up the relief work in flood-hit Jammu and Kashmir. NDRF and Armed forces have rescued more than two lakh people and Jammu –Srinagar highway has been reopened for public after 13 days.
The re-opening of the highway is crucial as rescue material can now be transported to the flood-ravaged parts of the Kashmir Valley via road.
According to Skymet’s network in Jammu and Kashmir, while temperature has been stable, rain also confined to 0.25 mm to Nil in areas including Bakore, Pallanwala, Chakroi and Karalian in last two days.
After a week of devastation, communication and water supply has been partially restored in J&K. Adequate supplies of ration and medicines have started to be distributed among the hospitals and medical camps. Rail services have improved and roads have been made functional for public.
However, rescue work will still take time to pick up in landslide affected Panjar and Panchari area.
The hilly state is reeling under the worst flood in the last century. Life is wrecked in Jammu and Kashmir as heavy rains last week had caused flash floods. Heavy downpour that has washed away several villages and left numerous people homeless in J&K is likely to tone down as the week approaches.
While the stage is set for a high voltage Champions League T20 (CLT20) opener in Hyderabad on Wednesday, September 17, the weather gods look like spoiling the party. A low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal is likely to cross Andhra Coast and move inland giving rain in Hyderabad Tuesday night onwards. Hence, chances are that rain will curtail play, if not totally washing it out. Therefore team winning the toss will look to bowl first and Coaches and Captains will be busy looking at the Duckworth- Lewis score sheet to know the exact target.
The match is between Chennai Super Kings, the CLT20 winners of 2010 & current Indian Premier League (IPL) champions Kolkata Knight Riders. Buoyed by its thumping success in the IPL T20 tournament this year, KKR is raring to go for the kill in the Champions League but their build-up to the tournament has been plagued by injuries to Chris Lynn and Morne Morkel and the absence of Shakib Al Hasan, who failed to get an NOC from the Bangladesh Cricket Association. Led by a ‘no-nonsense’ Gautam Gambhir, the team has not given a good account of itself in the CLT20 competitions so far. Even though they reached the Group Stage in 2011 and 2012 editions, they failed to go beyond. Besides Gambhir, KKR boasts of some high-octane performers such as Jacques Kallis, Robin Uthappa and Yusuf Pathan, though it is missing the services of Shakib and Morkel. Shakib has not been given NOC, while Morkel is injured.
The Kolkata side has practiced hard, including playing a practice match with Hyderabad XI, at the Rajiv Gandhi cricket stadium here on Tuesday. In the 20 overs practice match yesterday, Kallis scored 58 runs (43b, 3x4, 4x6).
The 2010 champions, Chennai, led by Team India captain MS Dhoni, is equally poised to put its best foot forward. In a shot in the arm for the team, seasoned Dwayne Bravo is back in the side.
Though, cricket lovers would be praying for a full game, only weather gods will decide how long will the match last.!!
Picture Courtesy: ibnlive.com
Monsoon in India is expected to commence withdrawal from west Rajasthan anytime during this week. The Monsoon trough is also likely to become less marked; particularly the western end and rainfall will be confined to East and Northeast India. Some isolated showers could also be seen over southern peninsula during this time.
Here’s a look at the weather forecast for the week:
Northwest India
Skies will be mainly clear with chances of very little rain. Up in the hills the weather will be pleasant without any significant weather activity. Reversal of winds from southeasterly to northwesterly will continue in the region throughout the week with anti cyclonic tendencies. Day temperatures could rise marginally but that will not create any inconvenience.
Central India
Predominantly northwesterly winds will blow in the region as a result of anti cyclonic flow over North India. Isolated light rain will be observed over south Chhattisgarh and north Maharashtra. In the absence of rain and cloud cover we can expect rise in day temperatures.
East and Northeast India
There is a feeble low pressure area associated with a cyclonic circulation marked in the west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal parts due to which Monsoon rains will continue in East and Northeast India for the entire week. Thereafter it will start to reduce from East India. No significant rise is expected in the day temperature during the week.
South India
First half of the week will witness some scattered moderate rain showers over coastal parts of north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh. Rain will also be observed along the western in pockets over Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Maximum temperature will settle in the low thirties barring Tamil Nadu, where it is expected to settle in the mid-thirties.
Photo courtesy: slate.com
Poorer quality French wheat after a rain drenched harvest will shake up European Union export patterns as northern EU countries take over a chunk of French sales to bread wheat importers like Algeria. EU states Germany and Poland showing decent wheat quality should benefit while France turns more to animal feed markets within the EU.
India’s maize shipments have slowed down as overseas buyers are seen shifting to the cheaper origins in South America and the United States. Decline in kharif maize production on drop in acreage could result in lower availability for shipments. Maize exports are not viable right now as the international maize prices are lower.
Black pepper prices are likely to be firm next year due to a drop in production in Vietnam. According to early estimates from Vietnam, standing crop is likely to be lower 30 per cent than the last season and the overall output might be lower by 45,000 tonnes. Vietnam’s black pepper production could be in the 105,000-110,000 tonnes range next year.
