Skymet weather

Climate Change Summit: Global rallies demand action

UN Chief Ban Ki-moon Street protests demanding urgent action on climate change have attracted hundreds of thousands of marchers in about 2,000 locations worldwide. Similar protests have been held in about 160 countries around the world, so far.

The New York rally was part of a global protest that included events in 156 countries - Afghanistan, UK, Italy and Brazil were also among them. Following are some of the highlights of the protests at several locations.

  • In London, the protest march attracted about 40,000 people, including actress Emma Thompson, who had  linked the threat of climate change to a Martian invasion
  • Some 30,000 people marched in Melbourne, Australia. Demonstrators urged Prime Minister Tony Abbott to take concrete action in the direction, citing fears that climate change could lead to more bushfires and droughts
  • Organisers have said that more than 25,000 marched in Paris for the cause
  • About 15,000 people marched in Berlin. Organisers urged world leaders to recognise climate change as a pressing problem
  • In Rio de Janeiro, some 5,000 marchers turned out on the roads. Environmental slogans and a green heart were projected onto the famed statue of Christ the Redeemer, overlooking the city
  • Smaller protests, attracting numbers in the hundreds or low thousands,  were also seen in the cities such as Bogota, Barcelona, Jakarta and Delhi

On Tuesday, the UN will host a Climate Summit at its headquarters in New York, which will be attended by 125 heads of states and governments. This is the first such gathering since the unsuccessful climate conference held in Copenhagen in 2009.

UN Chief Ban Ki-moon hopes that through this Summit, leaders can progress towards a universal agreement that is to be signed by all nations at the end of 2015. The People's Climate March is campaigning for curbs on carbon emissions, ahead of the UN Climate Summit in New York on Tuesday. In Manhattan, organisers said some 310,000 people joined a march that was also attended by Ban Ki-moon.New York hosted the largest of Sunday's protests, drawing more than half of the 600,000 marchers estimated by organisers to have taken part in rallies around the world.

Another protest, another climate conference - Will this time be any different?

Well, this protest march has brought many people on to the streets than ever before, partly thanks to the organisational power of the e-campaign group Avaaz. The climate talks will also be influenced by technology, as it was reported this week that the sun and wind can often generate power as cheaply as gas in Texas.

UN's Secretary General, Ban Ki Moon, hopes that he can make a fresh start in the climate talks. World leaders are due to show up in Paris in 2015 to settle a global climate deal based on open co-operative offers of action to tackle a shared problem and not on a bitterly-contested chiselling negotiation in the middle of the night.

Ban has invited leaders to New York to make their offers public. Some small nations will undoubtedly make new contributions to the carbon contraction effort, as they realise the vulnerability of their own economies to a hotter world. However, some big players may continue the game of climate poker, holding back their offers until they see what else is on the table.

Though there is no guarantee that Ban's idea will work but at least for weary climate politics watchers it will be a change.

Heavy showers to lash Northeast region

Rain in NortheastNortheast region of the country has been witnessing heavy rain for the last few days and is expected to observe similar weather conditions for a few days more. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, heavy rainfall is expected over the region in the next 48 hours, particularly over Assam and Meghalaya, due to a well marked cyclonic circulation persisting over the area. As a result, we can also expect a marginal decline in the sub-divisional rainfall deficiency.

With the ongoing spell of heavy rainfall, the rain deficiency in Sub Himalayan West Bengal has dropped from 11% to 9%, while it declined from 20% to 17% in Assam and Meghalaya. In Arunachal Pradesh it droppe d from 7% to 5%and from 28% to 26% in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (NMMT).

According to Skymet, the presence of monsoon system over the west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha region and north coastal Andhra Pradesh, has given good rain over East and Northeast India during in the last four to five days. Northeast India, Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim have witnessed heavy to very heavy rainfall in last 48 hours.

On September 21, Cherrapunji recorded 175 mm of rain, making it the rainiest city in India on Sunday.  Digha received 154 mm, Behrampur -146 mm, Asansol -110 mm and Shillong 79 mm of rainfall. During the last 24 hours, Cherrapunji recorded 146 mm, Guwahati-146 mm, while Dhubri and Coochbehar received 205 mm and 231 mm of rainfall.

At present, Northeast region is witnessing its second spell of heavy rainfall. The first spell was reported during the month of August, which had occurred due to break monsoon conditions.

September is the last month of the Southwest Monsoon and from here on it starts withdrawing. However, withdrawal phase of monsoon is retrospective in nature, as there is no clear cut pattern determined for it, like in the case of its onset.

First week of September observed good showers across the country but after the maiden week, it did not see any significant monsoon system. As a result, rainfall remained subdued and national cumulative deficiency remained stagnant at 11% between September 7 and September 15 and thereafter mounted to 12% on September 18 and 19. However, the recent downpour has led to marginal decrease in cumulative deficiency, bringing it back to 11%.

 

Monsoon to revisit Delhi? Not really

Delhi rainAccording to some recent newspaper reports, monsoon is to revisit Delhi this week. The monsoon winds are to return from Rajasthan this week which indicates withdrawal of monsoon from the state. This does not mean that the monsoon has withdrawn form entire northwest India also (Delhi/ west UP/ Punjab/haryana). So there are no indications of the monsoon revisiting Delhi.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India the western end of the monsoon trough has become less marked and shifted close to the foothills. There is no chance of any monsoon system (low pressure or depression) travelling up to northwest India and resulting in any significant monsoon rainfall in these parts.

However, the passage of any Western Disturbance (WD) can still cause some rains over the hilly states of North India, foothills and adjoining regions including Delhi NCR. The model forecast does suggest such activity around the weekend wherein the foothills of North India and Delhi-NCR could experience light rain or cloudy conditions.

In the remaining days of this month or even later any such activity will happen as a result of WD or local conditions and not because of any monsoonal systems which originate in the bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, the maximum temperature in Delhi will be a little warm and settle in the mid thirties, while the minimums will hover around 25 degrees Celsius during the next 5 days. The wind direction will be mainly West-Northwesterly which will lead to increase in dryness and drop in night temperatures. There is a chance that the wind direction may change to East-Southeasterlies over the weekend which will lead to increase in humidity levels.

Last monsoon forecast for season 2014

Northeast rainSkymet Meteorology Division in India for the last few months has been giving ten days monsoon forecast for its readers, which will now come to an end with this last forecast for the Southwest Monsoon season 2014. There is only nine days left before the Southwest Monsoon comes to a close and Northeast Monsoon commences over South India from October. So lets have a look at how Southwest Monsoon is going to behave for the remaining few days.

22nd to 24th September

  • North and Central India will observe fairly clear weather during this time

  • In wake of withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon and clear skies, above normal temperatures will be witnessed across North and Central India

  • East and Northeast India will be the weather activity regions

  • Northeast India can expect heavy to very heavy rain, particularly in Assam and Meghalaya

  • Light rain will be observed in East India during this time

  • Southern peninsula will continue to experience subdued rainfall activity

25th to 27th September

  • Due to the passage of a feeble Western Disturbance the hills of North India will observe isolated weather activity, which may trickle down to Delhi-NCR and west Uttar Pradesh in form of cloud cover and light rain

  • Western parts of India will generally remain dry without and weather activity

  • Rain in Northeast India will start reducing and become moderate in intensity and thereafter light

  • Rainfall will pick up in South India from Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh, which will gradually shift to interior parts and cover western ghats including Mumbai

28th to 30th September

  • Rainfall activity in the hills of North India will reduce and the weather will become clear

  • Barring some parts of Maharashtra, Central India will not observe any weather activity

  • Rain in East and Northeast India will decrease further

  • Rain in South India will also decrease and remain confined to Konkan and Goa and coastal Karnataka region

Southern peninsula to witness subdued rainfall activity for next 48 hrs

Rain in South IndiaThe month of September commenced with a rainfall deficit of 5% in southern peninsula, which continues to remain the same as on September 22. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, there have been no major variations, though it had dropped marginally to 4% between September 8 and 11.

The region is an important contributor to country’s Southwest Monsoon and comprises of mainland areas such as Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.

The region so far in September has witnessed subdued rainfall activity and has not observed any heavy downpour, except over the areas of Coastal and South Interior Karnataka. During the first week, two sub divisions- Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana-were reported to be deficit, while South Interior Karnataka was surplus and rest of the sub divisions were observing normal rain with maximum variation of ±19%.

According to Skymet, Telangana is the only sub-division which is deficit by 30% at the moment, while all others have observed average rainfall. However, deficit is fairly high for Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh with 16%and 17% respectively.

Rainfall activity will continue to be subdued for the next 48 hours but is expected to pick up thereafter, commencing from Tamil Nadu and southern parts of Andhra Pradesh, thereon travelling to Karnataka, Kerala and also spreading along the west coast. End of September might also see a marginal drop in the regional deficiency.

As Southwest Monsoon withdraws, rain reduces drastically over North West and Central India. Rain however, continues in southern peninsula. Moreover,  rain in south India intensifies  during October and November, due to the onset of Northeast Monsoon that coincides with withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon.

Monsoon in India started on a poor note this year, with country witnessing a rainfall deficit of 43% in June. However, the situation improved in July with the cumulative deficit coming down to 22%. In August the deficit was 17%, while in September it has dropped to 11% due to above normal rains in the first week of September.







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