Skymet weather

Cyclonic circulation over Comorin could develop into a storm

Satellite ImageOn September 25, Skymet Meteorology Division in India published the first update on the cyclonic circulation brewing in the Indian Ocean near Comorin region. The system is still situated quite low near 5°N Latitude as a cyclonic circulation.

The system is likely to strengthen into a low pressure area in another 3 days, after gaining some latitude. If this system develops into a Cyclonic storm then it will be the first of the season. But we need to wait for some time before saying anything. However, the system is not going to impact the Indian coast.

During summer equinox, equatorial region of the Indian Ocean becomes very active with a series of weather disturbances. At the moment there are some weather disturbances on the either side of the equator in close proximity and the conditions are favourable for these systems to strengthen, provided they gain latitudes.

As have been said earlier, climatological records show that these systems usually have a tendency to strengthen and move west-northwestwards, away from the Indian coast and head for Yemen or Oman. Such systems set pace for more cyclones to form.

Northeast Monsoon in India gets manifested by formation of cyclonic systems in the southern latitudes of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Rain in South India

Meanwhile, places along the west coast have been receiving good showers in last few days, in view of a cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and adjoining Kerala region. The circulation over Comorin region will gain strength only after this system dissipates.

 

 

Cardamom| Indian cardamom prices traded higher on

Indian cardamom prices traded higher on account of good buying support from both exporters and upcountry buyers and also on hopes of improved export demand. Cardamom output in southern states of India is likely to be higher than previous year because of favorable climate conditions and higher cardamom yield, according to the traders.

Beat the heat in unexplored destinations

If the hot and humid weather left behind by the withdrawing southwest monsoon in your metro city is a concern, then heading towards the nearest hill station from your dwell in the upcoming extended weekend can easily become a part of your ‘to do’ list.

Skymet Meteorology Division in India brings to you some of the scenic and unexplored weekend getaway destinations that you can visit during 2nd October -5th October.

From Delhi to Dhanulti
293 km away from Delhi, Dhanaulti is located at an altitude of 2286 meters above sea level and nestled in the Garhwal Himalayas. Due to its height and close proximity with the Himalayas, the weather in Dhanaulti is temperate and is comfortable throughout the year.
Weather for 2nd – 5th Oct - Even though the weather is comfortable, it usually gets little chilly in the evenings and carrying light woollens would be a good idea to enjoy the cool evening in this hill station. During the day, however, it remains quite sunny and warm. And just as monsoon is departing, this time would be best to escape the city’s second summer.

From Bangalore to Gokarna
bang Cropped (1)Just about 583 km from Bangalore, the drive up the winding path that leads to Gokarna is scenic, with the rocky mountain range and Western ghats on one side and the Arabian Sea on the other.
Weather for 2nd – 5th Oct – Since it’s a coastal station situated between Gangavali and Agnashini rivers, the weather during the extended weekend would remain good. The destination would benefit from the retreating southwest monsoon and the ongoing northeast monsoon resulting in maximum temperature of lower 30s and minimums of 20s.

From Mumbai to Bhandardara
Elevated mountain ranges, deep waterfalls and a green carpet characterize the tourist’s destination of Bhandardara. For a short hour-long journey, this hill station offers city dwellers a drastically contrasting landscape and stunning surroundings away from the maddening and perpetually crowded streets of Mumbai city. mum Cropped

Weather for 2nd – 5th Oct – The holiday resort village usually witnesses good weather conditions. In the upcoming weekend, the weather is expected to remain pleasant. Since rains have receded, there are less chances of rainfall spoiling your holiday. The temperatures will vary from low 30s to mid- 20s, offering respite from the humid weather of Mumbai.

From Kolkata to Garhpanchkot
A journey of 252 Kms by road via Asansol from Kolkata, this hilltop offers picturesque and panoramic view of the command area of the Panchet dam on Damodar River. One of the highlights in this trip can be the bird watching on Panchet dam which is believed to be a treat to the eye. kol Cropped

Weather for 2nd – 5th Oct – As southwest monsoon withdraws, light rain showers can be expected in Kolkata and nearby areas. Garhpanchkot is one of them. What can add to the thrill of your trip is the foggy and misty weather witnessed after a spell of light rain, if it occurs. Moreover, the weather during the weekend will remain between 20 -30 °C, even if it does not rain at all.

UPCOMING HOLIDAYS
2nd Oct (Thursday) – Gandhi Jayanti
3rd Oct (Friday) – Dussehra
4-5th Oct (Sat, Sun) - Weekend

Bangalore receives heaviest rain in last 10 years

Boasting pleasant weather throughout the year, Bangalore once again surpasses its earlier records. Moderate showers were experienced in the last 24 hours and the city received 132 mm of rain. With a total of 271 mm till now, the city has exceeded the monthly normal. The city has also surpassed the earlier record of highest 24 hours rain of 114.1 mm received on September 25, 2010.

 

Meteorological study breaks Karnataka into three sub-divisions, namely Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and North Interior Karnataka. South Interior Karnataka shares a large border with Coastal Karnataka, which receives good showers during Monsoon in India on account of its topography and proximity to the coastline. South Interior Karnataka, has therefore, always performed better than the northern part.

By the third week of August, South Interior Karnataka was the only sub-division observing excess rainfall by 20%. It continued to remain excess till the 15th of September. On 7th September it was excess by 24% after which a gradual decline started.

Rain in Bangalore

Bangalore, lying in South Interior Karnataka, receives highest amount of rainfall in September. Rain picks up with the onset of Northeast Monsoon and September and October receives 241 mm and 154 mm of rain on and average.

This month rain in Bangalore was low key till 22nd of September. There has hardly been any double digit rainfall and one week went completely dry. In last four days, the city witnessed good showers and recorded 79 mm on September 23. Situated at the height of 3000 ft., Bangalore is the heart of the Mysore plateau. Due to its high elevation, Bangalore normally enjoys pleasant weather conditions throughout the year, although occasional heat waves make summer little uncomfortable.

Tropical storm Kammuri heads japan

clouds_48126_8 CroppedA broad area of low pressure that has strengthened into tropical storm Kammuri is expected to hit Japan towards the end of this weekend or early next week. Though, the storm will remain to the east of Japan, just sideswiping eastern parts of the country.

Moreover, the aftereffects of storm Kammuri will not be observed by rain showers or wind pattern but change in temperature. As Kammuri tracks north east it will deepen a trough coming in out of Siberia allowing a surge of cooler air to pour in across much of Japan.  This very well will be the first shot of autumn air for the country with highs in Tokyo remaining in the teens to low 20s.

The key to the movement of this cyclone in the long term will be a trough that is still more than 1,000 of miles west of Japan in Siberia. This trough will quickly move eastward and interact with the cyclone early next week.

 

 

Nature and causes of cyclone

4GA9936 CroppedCyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons are the same. In the Indian seas it is called cyclones, in the Atlantic and eastern pacific ocean it is called Hurricanes, and in the western pacific it is called Typhoons.

In the Indian seas the various stages of development of a cyclonic storm are:-

  • Low pressure
  • Well marked low pressure
  • Depression (winds at 36-54 km/hr)
  • Deep Depression (winds at 54-66 km/hr)
  • Cyclonic storm (winds at 66-94 km/hr)
  • Sever cyclonic storm (winds at 94-126 km/hr)
  • Very sever cyclonic storm (winds at 126-240 km/hr)
  • Super Cyclonic Storm (winds at 240 km/hr and above)

Formation

Cyclones are formed from simple thunderstorms. However, these thunderstorms can  grow to cyclone strength only with warm ocean waters and moist atmospheric conditions. First of all, the ocean waters have to be warmer than 26 degrees Celsius . The heat and the moisture from warm waters is the source of energy for cyclones. Cyclones will weaken rapidly as they travel over land or colder ocean waters where there is less of warmth and moisture. Not only, to having warm ocean water, high humidity levels in the lower and middle troposphere are also required for cyclone development.

The vertical wind shear in a tropical cyclone's environment is also important. Wind shear is defined as the amount of change in the wind's direction or speed with increasing altitude.

A weak wind shear means that the cyclone grows vertically, and the latent heat from condensation is released into the air directly above the storm, aiding in its development. A stronger wind shear means that the cyclones become more slanted and the latent heat release is dispersed over a much larger area.

Stages of Development

Stages of Development from tropical depression to cyclone

A tropical disturbance in time can grow to a more intense stage by attaining a specified sustained wind speed.

Cyclones can last for more than a week, depending upon their sea travel duration. They usually give rise to a cluster of clouds bringing thunderstorms over the tropical ocean waters. Once a disturbance has graduated to a tropical depression status, the amount of time that its takes go to the next stage i.e. a tropical storm, usually half a day up to a couple of days. Also it may not happen at all. The amount of moisture and warmth of the ocean waters play a major role in determining these events.

Movement of Cyclones

Movement of Cyclones is steered by the zonal winds

The location of a cyclone in these wind belt decides its path. a cyclone originating in the easterly zonal wind area is driven westward by easterly winds in the tropics.

Most storms in the tropics move northwestward initially. They re-curve and travel northeastward on entering the region of strong westerlies.

The energy of the cyclone depends upon warm surface water of the tropics which is why cyclones dissipate rapidly over cold water. Also, the tropical storms do not develop in the proximity of equator.

 

 

 

Last update on El Nino for this monsoon

El NinoInitially, monsoon in India commenced with an El Nino scare and practically affected the entire season. Throughout the monsoon season this year, the Pacific Ocean remained consistently warm but not good enough to be termed as El Nino.

As have been explained earlier, El Nino is an abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, which occurs every two to five years.

Such an event is generally characterized by occurrence of normal tropical storms and Hurricanes in Eastern Pacific and decrease in storms in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Arabian Sea. Higher the temperature, lower the pressure, which in turn changes the wind pattern and impacts rainfall figures. All El Niño’s are not the same, nor does the atmosphere always react in the same way from one El-Nino to another.

El Nino has a strong connection with Indian Southwest Monsoon

El Nino is closely associated to Monsoon in India, which is often weaker during occurrence of such a phenomenon. During an El Nino, monsoon never witnesses excess rainfall baring few exceptions. A poor Monsoon in India seemed the order of the day till February and as we entered mid-April, these observations were turning out to be more accurate. Other meteorological agencies across the world also strongly pointed towards the likelihood of an El Niño weather pattern this year.

El Nino leads to warming of sea surface temperature (SST) above 0.5oC. From the 21st to 25th of May, the surface temperature remained constantly at 0.6oC. This could be attributed to poor performance of Monsoon in India with rain deficiency at 43% till 12th of July. Thereafter, conditions relaxed and rain deficiency came down to 22% by end of July as the surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific came down to 0oC and even further to -1 oC.

The month of July received 10% below normal rainfall while August was 9.2% below normal. As of now, September has received 19% above normal rainfall but it is likely to decline and end up with a surplus of 10% only.

Equatorial Pacific is divided into four parts Nino 3, Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 1+ 2, for Meteorological analysis. Any occurrence over Nino 3.4 is the most relevant for Monsoon in India. The Pacific Ocean is now showing a rise in temperatures, here’s a look at the surface temperatures since August-

Date (2014) Nino 3 Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 1+ 2
 August 4 0.2oC 0.3oC - 0.1oC 0.6oC
 August 11 0.4oC 0.5oC 0.0oC 1.2oC
 August 18 0.5oC 0.4oC 0.0oC 1.2oC
 August 25 0.5oC 0.4oC 0.3oC 1.4oC
September 2 0.4oC 0.5oC 0.4oC 0.8oC
September 16 0.4oC 0.7oC 0.5oC 0.7oC
September 22 0.4oC 0.8oC 0.5oC 0.7oC

This could be the last update by Skymet on El Nino index, as far as Indian monsoon is concerned.

  • The table above shows persistent warming of the Ocean waters giving rise to neutral conditions.
  • Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.
  • As reiterated by Skymet, El Nino is still evolving. As per latest updates, the chances of El Nino occurring this year still stands at 60-65%, peaking during fall and winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

Rainfall Figures from June to September

The figure above depicts total rainfall from June to September over Equatorial Pacific Ocean, Equatorial Indian Ocean and the Indian Subcontinent. We can clearly see that rain in the Indian Ocean was confined to the eastern half, substantiating poor monsoon in  India. Rain in the western part accounts for good monsoon in India and vice versa.

 







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