September began on a positive note with moderate rain showers, unfortunately it finishes with a rain deficit of 27 percent as southwest monsoon ends.
The moderate to heavy rain showers that lashed Mumbai during the first week of September soon faded. Last eight days witnessed only 2.2 mm of rain out of which six days were completely dry.
September had commenced with a spell of good rains that summed up to 219 mm of rain during first five days of the month. The rain activity did indicate a possible coverage of monthly average rainfall of 312 mm but as September approached, the reduced intensity and frequency of rain left the city dry. The financial capital has just received 285 mm of rain during September this year.
The rainfall for first five days in September was 111 mm, 43 mm, 27 mm, 6 mm and 27 mm respectively. However, the intensity reduced thereafter and the double digit rainfall confined to only two more days after this spell. The rain was 12 mm on both 9th and 21st September.
Seeing the rainfall pattern for the first week of September, Skymet Meteorology Division in India forecasted a good monsoon for Mumbai. It even anticipated that September would cover up for the August rain deficit which was 13% for Mumbai this year. However, monsoon in September was even worse than August.
The dry spell witnessed by Mumbai can be attributed to the withdrawing southwest monsoon that commences in September. Moreover, since Mumbai is situated at latitude of 19°0, it remains unaffected by the northeast monsoon.
Monsoon in Mumbai
The monsoon this year has witnessed a distinctive pattern and while June received very scanty rainfall it was compensated by July wherein July received the highest rainfall in the last 63 years. August received less rain as it witnessed a 13% rain deficit. However, monsoon picked pace in the last two days of August and first week of September.
After surpassing the monthly normal rainfall in August, September also follows the similar trend for Chennai. The capital city has witnessed 151 mm of rainfall against the monthly normal of 137 mm.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Chennai has observed four rainy days out of seven during the last leg of the Southwest Monsoon. The city has recorded 59 mm of rainfall on September 04, 16 mm on September 06, 25 mm on September 16 and 31 mm on September 22. Remaining days have either observed light or no rains or single digit rainfall.
Tamil Nadu is a rain shadow area, due to which the normal rainfall is also not very high during the Southwest Monsoon season. However, the coastal parts and hilly parts receive good showers. It was indeed one of the very few pockets that observed a surplus of 4% in June, while the entire country was experiencing scanty or deficit rain of 43%. Though month of July was deficit for the city, it again bounced back in August with 186.6 mm of rainfall, crossing the monthly average of 140 mm.
Northeast Monsoon
September is the last month before the onset of Northeast monsoon, which stretches from October to December. This season is considered to be the rainy season for the state as well as the city, unlike the Southwest Monsoon. Chennai receives more than 60 per cent of annual rainfall during these months.
The rainfall will increase incredibly both in terms of frequency and intensity during this season. There will be more number of rainy days in October, whereas the peak period for the season is November.
According to Skymet, the city will witness drop in temperatures, as October approaches. The maximum temperature will hover around lower 30s or even 30°C, while the minimum temperature will be in lower 20s. All these factors will lead to extremely pleasant weather conditions across the state.
According to the Cashew Export Promotion Council of India, cashew exports from India declined compared with the same period a year ago. During May, shipments were 8397 tonnes valued at Rs 365.17 crore at an unit value of Rs 434.86 per kg against 9720 tonnes valued at Rs 386.29 crore at an unit value of Rs 397.42 last year.
Indian exports of combed cotton have also decreased by $83.13 million in June 2014 to $118.68 million, registering a negative growth of 41.19 per cent, as compared to May 2014. The major destinations of cotton exports were China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Egypt, Peru, United Arab Emirates, Sri Lanka, Togo, Bangladesh, Benin and Turkey.
As per the Ministry of Agriculture`s estimates, Indian rice production has been pegged at 106 million tonnes for the year of 2014-2015. India has estimated 261 million tonnes of the food grain output during the 2014-2015 fiscal year period, according to Indian minister of state for agriculture and food processing industries.
Soybean sowing in the states including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Chattisgarh and Gujarat were recorded at 261,000 hectares, 295,000 hectares, 144,000 hectares and 67600 hectares respectively. Indian soybean kharif cultivation has recorded a drop of nine per cent during 2014 at 10.90 million hectares.
Hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are witnessing pleasant weather conditions, slated to attract scores of tourists in the upcoming long weekend during October 02- 06. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the passage of western disturbance has given scattered rainfall over these three states with isolated places having moderate showers during the past 24 hours. This has made the weather in these regions extremely pleasing.
The Southwest Monsoon season withdraws itself from these three states between the third and fourth week of September and the present weather conditions are completely favourable for the withdrawal. Though it has been seen that the weather activity ceases during the withdrawal of monsoon, particularly in North India, but some low activity can be still observed during this phase. In Himachal Pradesh, Dharamshala recorded 49 mm of rainfall, Una-16mm and Shimla-8mm on September 29. Mukteshwar and Uttarkashi in Uttarakhand witnessed 5.8 mm and 14 mm of rainfall, respectively. While in Jammu and Kashmir, Katra received 16 mm of rainfall and Pahalgam got 1 mm.
As per Skymet, a good spell of weather has been prevailing during the past week across these three states, in terms of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. However, a slight chill is observed during morning and night hours.
The current weather conditions are likely to continue during next two to three days. There is a forecast of some fresh spell of light rains as well. Thereafter, sky should be opening up offering good weather for the extended long weekend.
List of upcoming holidays
2nd Oct (Thursday) – Gandhi Jayanti
3rd Oct (Friday) – Dussehra
4-5th Oct (Sat, Sun) - Weekend
06 Oct (Monday)--Eid
