The summer is officially over, yet mercury levels are hitting a new high in Andhra Pradesh, every day. The maximum temperatures are soaring in many districts across Andhra Pradesh, including Nellore, Tirupati and Kurnool.
Dry weather is prevailing across the state with temperatures in the city touching 37°C. The highest maximum temperature of 37°C was recorded at Nellore, Ongole, Tirupati and Anantapur in Andhra Pradesh. These temperatures are 4-5°C above normal for this time of the year.
The temperatures have been above normal for Hyderabad, Nizamabad and Ramagundam in Telangana state as well.
Even though the country awaits the Northeast Monsoon and South Peninsula particularly looks forward to moderate rain showers, east coastal areas including Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema are still experiencing high temperature which is an inherit feature of the transition period. The transition of Monsoon from Southwest to Northeast Monsoon generally increases the day temperature and drops the evening temperature, bringing some respite from the soaring heat experienced throughout the day.
However, the spell of high temperature is expected to end soon. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, light to moderate rain and thundershowers would occur at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Telangana in the next couple of days. Coupled with moderate humidity and night temperature remaining in mid 20s, the weather is anticipated to be fairly comfortable in the days to come.
High temperature in last two days
| City | 5th Oct, 2014 | 6th October, 2014 |
| Hyderabad | 36 | 35.2 |
| Ramagundam | 35.8 | 35.3 |
| Ongole | 37 | 35.8 |
| Kurnool | 36.9 | 35.8 |
| Anantapur | 37.1 | 34 |
| Nellore | 37.4 | 37 |
India’s one of the major oilseed crop, groundnut is set to see a decline in output on the back of lower acreage and the erratic progress of the south-west monsoon. The country’s groundnut bowl Saurashtra has faced extended dry conditions this season. Groundnut acreage in India is down from the last year by 7 lakh ha.
Decline in area under Tur or pigeon pea has affected production of Kharif Pulses which is estimated at 5.20 million tonnes for 2014-2015 year as against their production of 6.02 million tonnes during Kharif 2013-2014. Erratic rainfall and dry spells in several parts of the country have also impacted productivity of kharif pulse crops.
A Chinese trade delegation signed agreements with United States exporters to purchase 4.8 million tonnes of soybeans valued at $2.3 billion following a week long industry tour, the US Soybean Export Council said. China, the world's largest soybean buyer, purchased 28 million tonnes of US soybeans during the 2013/14 crop season.
Rains expected over the days ahead in Argentina's main wheat growing areas could cause a resurgence of flooding and threaten crop yields, the agriculture ministry said in its weekly crop report. The Argentine wheat belt was hit by higher than normal rainfall at the end of the 2014-2015 planting season in the July month.
Western Pacific Ocean seems to have no respite from the typhoons this year. After typhoon Phanfone, there is another typhoon, Vongfong, brewing in the western Pacific Ocean.
Even though Vongfong has now moved away from Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, warnings remain in effect for both Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. Vongfong is following the same path as Typhoon Phanfone that passed near Guam as a tropical storm and is now affecting Japan as a strong typhoon.
The system passed close to Rota Island, part of the Northern Mariana Island chain, and passed approximately 90 km north of Guam and 85 km south of Saipan on Sunday. The system is now moving away from the islands.
Vongfong was first a tropical depression, and then steadily gained strength as it approached Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.
Vongfong will maintain a northwesterly path.
With low vertical wind shear and warm western Pacific water, conditions remain favorable for its intensification.
Strike Japan Again?
After passing the Mariana Islands Vongfong will then take almost the same path of western Pacific water as Typhoon Phanfone. It seems that Vongfong will intensify into another strong typhoon before threatening parts of Japan. It is to be noted that Typhoon Vongfong will take a path just west to the path taken by Typhoon Phanfone.
October's first week is about to end, yet Northeast Monsoon is nowhere to be seen. With minimal weather activity, the country is witnessing rain which is 80% short than the normal rainfall for the first week of this month.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the average country rainfall in first six days of October was 4.1 mm against the normal of 20.8 mm. While parts of Northeast India, including Assam and Bihar are witnessing a rain deficiency of 99%, Rajasthan in Northwest is seeing a rain deficiency of 86% for the same period.
Northeast Monsoon
Unlike the Southwest Monsoon, Northeast monsoon does not have any specific date. Yet late September to first week of October is the time when Northeast Monsoon generally commences. However, October started on a poor note as the average country rainfall on October 1 was 1.7 mm against the normal of 4.1 mm.
Northeast monsoon also means that South Peninsula witnesses heavy rainfall while North and Northwest India observes only light rain showers. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the spell of least rain during the first week of October is likely to pick up in the beginning of the second week commencing with the weather activity in Bay of Bengal.
Effect of Cyclonic Storm
A low pressure area that has formed over Tenasserim coast area adjoining Andaman Sea is likely to move towards Orissa and Coastal Andhra Pradesh in next 48 hours. However, it is not going to enhance rain activity in South India. Moreover, the rainiest pocket of South Peninsula, Tamil Nadu, will also witness minimal rain activity due to this storm.
Delhi continues to witness uncomfortable weather as maximums have consistently remained above normal. The Safdarjung Observatory recorded the maximum temperature at 37.7°C on Sunday, while minimum temperature was 24.6°C. On Saturday, the maximum temperature had settled at 38°C and minimum temperature at 24.6°C.
The other observatory at Palam has also been recording similar temperatures. On Sunday the maximum temperature settled at 38.8°C, while on Saturday, the day temperature was recorded to be 37.7°C.
Since September 18, the day temperature in the capital has not settled below 35°C even for a single day. The present temperatures are 4°C higher than the average maximum temperature of 32.9°C and minimum temperature of 19.4°C for the month of October.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, similar weather conditions are expected to prevail in Delhi for another 10 days before it starts cooling down.
Southwest Monsoon had practically withdrawn itself from Delhi on September 13. Since then the national capital has been witnessing a dry spell without any rain activity and drop in average humidity levels from 80s to 60s. Thus, in the absence of any significant weather activity, especially the cloud cover, the days have become relatively hot. However, drop in minimum temperature has made night and early morning fairly pleasant.
As per Skymet Meteorology Division in India, Delhi is progressing towards pleasant weather conditions around the end of the month. Delhiites can enjoy good weather with a slight chill around the upcoming festival Diwali, which falls on October 23 this year.
As predicted earlier by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the onset of Northeast Monsoon in the Indian sub-continent makes it susceptible for cyclones during this period. The predictions turn true. Under the influence of cyclonic circulation which was developing over Gulf of Thailand, a low pressure area has formed over Tenasserim coast area adjoining Andaman Sea.
The low pressure area is expected to rapidly convert into a depression, followed closely by a deep depression. As it transforms into a deep depression, the cyclonic circulation will move in a west-northwest direction, over the central Bay of Bengal, becoming a possible cyclonic storm by 9th October.
As it moves further, it will make a possible landfall by 11th October by the name of cyclone HUDHUD named by Oman. The landfall will be accompanied by strong winds and heavy rainfall observed mainly in Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam and parts of Odisha and West Bengal. 9th October onward cloudy sky will hover over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha while heavy rains are expected in the area 10th onward.
Peculiarity of the current storm
Tropical cyclones are notoriously famous for their uncertain intensity and track, defying the timelines many a times. This low pressure exhibits similar pattern due to the following reasons.
a) Beginning of October, the storms do not enter the Andaman Seas from the Gulf of Thailand.
b) In October, 70% of the cyclonic storms head for Odisha and West Bengal. 20% head to Bangladesh and Myanmar. The rest sometimes fizzle out.
c) The current tropical storm is moving straight, cutting short its sea travel right from its inception to its landfall. This may not allow the system to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm.
Reminiscence of Phailin
The tropical storm reminds of last year’s monstrous cyclone Phailin that made a landfall at the Odisha coast on 13th October at a wind speed of over 220 kmph, uprooting thousands of trees with some falling on residents, claiming lives of about twenty three in Ganjam district, the worst affected by Phailin.
