China will limit its 2015 cotton import quota to the 894,000 tonnes agreed in its commitments with the World Trade Organization (WTO), an official at the National Development and Reform Commission said. The change in policy will hurt major exporters such as the US where Chinese demand has played a key role in influencing prices.
The domestic demand for jeera or cumin seed is limited whereas sellers are releasing their stocks as they anticipate poor off take from overseas may hurt prices further. Sluggish domestic and overseas demand coupled with huge carry over stocks are putting pressure on prices. Indian jeera futures eased on prospects of higher output.
The chill is already being felt in the hill stations of North India including the plains. Minimums in some of the hill stations have already recorded as low as 2ºC. So, those who love winter and can spare some time from their busy schedule can head for the hills. This is the best time in terms of weather in the hill stations as the Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn and the Western Disturbances if they form will not be very strong. The weather will largely remain the same for at least another week.
Here we start with the weather of Shimla, one of the most popular hill stations in North India.
Shimla: The weather conditions in Shimla are pleasant with maximum recording 20ºC on Thursday. Minimum was a little cold at 10ºC, recorded on Friday morning. There isn't much weather activity expected in the city for the next 4-5 days. Temperatures will also remain at comfortable levels. It is therefore one of the best time to visit this picturesque place, especially for wanting to take a break from the hustle and bustle of city life.
Manali: Minimums in Manali have taken a huge dip. The hilly town recorded 26ºC as the maximum temperature on Thursday morning, while the minimum settled at 8ºC on Friday morning. Minimums are going to remain in single digits for the coming few days. Day temperature may rise to settle in the mid 20s.
Nainital: The weather in Nainital is almost similar to that in Shimla. Maximums have been settling close to 20ºC, while the minimus are hovering around 10ºC. Here too the weather will not witness any major change for another 6-7 days.
Gulmarg: The weather in Gulmarg is freezing cold. The minimum temperature in this picturesque hilly town settled at 1.5ºC on Friday morning. The maximum temperature on Thursday wasn't any better either. The day temperature settled at a chilling 8ºC. The temperatures are going to remain in the same levels now with marginal fluctuations.
Srinagar: The minimum temperature in Srinagar was a shade better at 5ºC on Friday morning. Maximum settled at a very comfortable level of 20ºC on Thursday. We can expect a further drop in day temperatures in the coming days but minimums will remain in single digit.
After the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon, Mumbai has observed subdued weather activity. In the last 17 days, Mumbai has recorded 23 mm of rain against the monthly average of 55.8 mm. There has been only two rainy days so far with 18 mm being recorded on October 1 and 5 mm on October 8.
This has pushed up the temperatures in the city. Maximums have been recording 3-4 degrees above normal, while the minimums are marginally above normal. The day temperature in Mumbai on Thursday settled 4 degrees above normal at 37°C, while the minimum settled at 25.4°C, which is also 2 degrees above normal. The humidity is also at a medium level, which is further adding to the discomfort.
This is the time when the land and sea breeze come into play. The winds during morning are easterlies from the land, while in the afternoon and evening its westerly from the sea. Winds from the sea play a crucial role in keeping the maximums under check. Whenever there is delay in the sea breeze, maximum temperatures rise in the city.
This is exactly what Mumbaikars are witnessing at the moment. There does not seem any respite as maximums in the city are going to remain in the mid thirties for some more days.
Its not even winter and Delhi people are experiencing chilly mornings and winters!
As October advances , the minimum temperature in Delhi see a sharp decline. Delhi’s minimum temperature reaches 15.6ºC from 21.8 ºC recorded on 14th October. In last ten years, temperature in the national capital has only touched 15ºC towards the end of the month as compared to the middle of the month observed during this year.
If not much stress, then certainly mornings in Delhi have become conducive and pleasantly cold for an effortless morning walk for health.
Minimum temperatures in last ten years
| Year | Temperature | Date in Oct. |
| 2005 | 13.7 | 31 |
| 2006 | 16.3 | 31 |
| 2007 | 14.5 | 30 |
| 2008 | 16.4 | 20 |
| 2009 | 13.5 | 26 |
Factors leading to sudden chill
After southwest monsoon withdraws, parts of North India and Central India come under the influence of western disturbances that moves towards east from west. The disturbance result in light to moderate rain in Delhi and hilly states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It leads to snow in Jammu and Kashmir area.
Additionally, persistent northwesterly winds from the hills of Jammu and Kashmir and the position of the sun having moved towards the south usually makes the days colder than before.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, there are chances of good rain in Chennai in next 48 hours. This spell of rain will come as a big relief to the city observing poor rains since the last two weeks.
Tamil Nadu is a rain shadow area with very little rain being recorded in the Southwest Monsoon season. The Northeast Monsoon season from October to December is the time when the state receives its bulk of rain. But the current scenario does not look very good for Chennai.
The city in the last seventeen days has received only 24 mm of rain against the monthly average of 279 mm. The first week of October was completely dry, while the second week saw 15 mm of rain on the 8th of October, 4 mm on the 10th, 2 mm on the 16th and 3 mm of rain on the 17th of October.
Rain in Chennai is usually observed in spurts during the initial days of October. It becomes frequent after the actual onset of Northeast Monsoon around October 20 with ± 7 days. Thus, poor rains in the city does not necessarily mean that October will be a bad month for Chennai in terms of rainfall amounts. There is still fourteen days to go before the month ends.
But what is worrying is that the Northeast Monsoon is still not showing the characteristics of onset, which is widespread rain in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Though, we have seen some rain in these areas but they have not been that intense and widespread. However, we are still hopeful that Northeast Monsoon will pick up soon in the region and Chennai will inch closer to its monthly average rainfall.
Even as we enter into the second half of October, South India still awaits Northeast Monsoon. The southern peninsular region has witnessed sporadic rains along the coastal parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh in last few days but the region is yet to receive widespread rainfall, which marks the onset of Northeast Monsoon.
Nellore in Andhra Pradesh has recorded 31 mm of rainfall so far during the month against the October average of 250 mm. Similarly, Chennai has observed 21 mm of rain till now against the normal of 279 mm.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, unlike the Southwest Monsoon, Northeast Monsoon does not have any specific date of commencement. Its normal onset date is around October 20 with ± 7 days. Thus, delay in its arrival does not indicate that the monsoon is under performer this year.
Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka are the regions that receive maximum amount of rain during the Northeast Monsoon..
Country rain deficit was at 30% on Wednesday, with regional deficit in South India also remaining high. Coastal Andhra Pradesh was deficit by 26%, South Interior Karnataka 22%, Rayalaseema 68% and Tamil Nadu 28%. Kerala is the only pocket which is close to normal with 3% of deficit.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, there isn't going to be any significant rain in the region in next 48 hours either. But good showers are expected over Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The Northeast Monsoon stretches from October to December. The rainfall increases incredibly both in terms of frequency and intensity across the region during this season. There will be more number of rainy days in October, whereas the peak period for the season is November.
This monsoon is of great significance for Tamil Nadu as the state is considered to be a rain shadow area, due to which the normal rainfall is not very high during the Southwest Monsoon season. Northeast Monsoon is considered to be the rainy season for the state. Its capital city Chennai receives more than 60% of its annual rainfall during these months.
The rainfall variation during the monsoon in the region is very high. Chennai had witnessed record rainfall of 1070 mm in October in 2005, where as it has also observed a paltry 71.5 mm of rain during the same month in 2007.
