The first Western disturbance of October 09 has given scattered light to moderate rain with isolated snowfall over the Western Himalayas. A fresh Western disturbance is now over northern parts of Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. We expect light to moderate rain and snowfall to occur over Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, and parts of Himachal Pradesh. Light rain and snowfall are possible over Uttarakhand. The peak intensity of rain and snow seems to be on the night of October 16 and may continue until October 17.
The impact of this Western disturbance will be felt over the Northern Plains as well in terms of rainfall. Western disturbance usually starts approaching the Western Himalayas from the month of October and continues until March. The intensity and frequency are the highest during the months of December and January.
This year we have seen the Western disturbance approaching the western Himalayas a little bit early therefore, the temperatures over the Northern Plains will start dropping by the third week of the month itself.
An epic clash awaits and India is all set to take on Pakistan today at the Narendra Modi Stadium, in the city of Ahmedabad at 2:00 PM today.
There is no possibility of rain in Ahmedabad on 14th October. In terms of weather, any interruption in the match is not possible. Today, the winds will continue to blow, the sky will be almost clear and the weather will remain quite hot.
When the match starts at 2:00 pm, the temperature will be around 34 degrees. When the match is ending, the temperature may drop to 27 or 28 degrees. There will be isolated clouds and humidity will also remain, there is very little chance of dew falling on the pitch and field.
Delhi and the NCR region have seen the minimum settling at normal levels while the maximums are slightly above normal. Today, the maximum temperature settled at 36.2 degrees Celsius, which is three degrees above normal.
A Fresh Western Disturbance has approached the hills of North India, and we expect the plains to see some showers. We do expect rains to be seen between October 15 and 17, with most rains likely on October 16.
During the weather activities, minimums can rise, reaching up to 22-23 degrees while maximum temperatures are expected to see a fall. After the passage of the system, which is around October 18 and 19, we can expect a drop in the minimum temperatures will take place and will settle around 18 and 19 degrees Celsius.
Temperatures thereafter will not continue to fall and will get arrested around October 20-21.
Now, the Southwest Monsoon is on the verge of withdrawal from the entire country and the effect of the Monsoon over southern parts of the country is also changing. Chennai has been seeing sultry weather conditions for now.
During the transition from Southwest Monsoon to Northeast Monsoon, for the southern parts, the weather patterns change. Rains, which were seen during the evening hours, are seen at midnight and in the early morning hours in the Northeast Monsoon season.
There is a Cyclonic Circulation off the coast, which is slightly far away from the coast, but keeps oscillating. There is a trough Comorin area. There is likely to be clouding but it will not impact Chennai today and tomorrow. There may be some rains around October 15th or so. Thus, Chennai will see sultry weather with rains in between.
एक ताज़ा पश्चिमी विक्षोभ, और वह भी सक्रिय, आज शाम के समय उत्तर भारत की पहाड़ियों पर पहुँचने के लिए तैयार है। यह सिस्टम उत्तर भारत के पहाड़ों और मैदानी इलाकों में एक साथ बारिश देगा।
कल बारिश तलहटी और पहाड़ियों तक ही सीमित रहेगी। हालांकि, 15 अक्टूबर से राजस्थान, पंजाब, हरियाणा और दिल्ली के कुछ हिस्सों में इसका असर दिखना शुरू हो जाएगा। 16 अक्टूबर को इन क्षेत्रों में बारिश का प्रसार और तीव्रता अधिक होगी। इस दौरान उत्तर भारत के पहाड़ों पर बारिश होती रहेगी।
16 अक्टूबर को मध्य प्रदेश और पश्चिमी उत्तर प्रदेश के कुछ हिस्सों में भी बारिश देखने को मिलेगी। जयपुर, भोपाल, इंदौर, जबलपुर, जैसलमेर, फलौदी, बाड़मेर और बीकानेर शहरों में भी बारिश होगी, मध्य प्रदेश के लिए हल्की बारिश होगी।
17 अक्टूबर को बारिश थोड़ी कम हो जाएगी और 18 अक्टूबर से पहाड़ों और मैदानों से एक साथ निकासी शुरू हो जाएगी। दिन के दौरान मैदानी इलाकों में गर्म मौसम कम हो जाएगा और अधिकतम तापमान भी थोड़ा कम हो जाएगा। हवा में जो ठिठुरन सुबह और रात के समय देखी जाती थी, वह भी दिखाई नहीं देगी और सिस्टम के गुजरने के बाद ही वापस आएगी।
A fresh Western Disturbance, and that too an active one is all set to approach the hills of North India today in the evening hours. This system will simultaneously give rains over the hills and plains of North India.
Tomorrow, rains will be confined to foothills and hills. However, starting October 15, parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi will start to see its effects. On October 16th, the spread and the intensity of rains will be more over these areas. During the entire time, the hills of North India will continue to see rain.
On October 16, rains will be seen over parts of Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh as well. Cities of Jaipur, Bhopal, Indore, Jabalpur, Jaisalmer, Phalodi, Barmer, and Bikaner will also see rain, with showers being on the lighter side for Madhya Pradesh.
On October 17, rains will slightly reduce, with clearance beginning on October 18, simultaneously from the hills an the plains.
Warm weather in the plains during the day will reduce with maximums reducing a bit. The nip in the air that was seen in the morning and night hours, will also not be seen and only come back after the passage of the system.
Bengaluru and suburbs received decent showers during this week between 08th and 11thOctober. The city observatory measured 86mm rainfall during this spell. No rainfall has been recorded in the past 24 hours and the weekend also is likely to remain dry for the city and neighbourhood. Rains are likely to resume next week.
Southwest monsoon is on the verge of complete withdrawal from the remaining parts of the country. Also, onset of northeast monsoon is approaching nearer, and takes place anytime after 20thOctober. Weather pattern changes significantly, even during the transition period. Winds dominantly change to remain northeasterly and low clouds with base around 500’-700’ become a regular feature. Rains are mostly observed during late evening and night hours. Incidentally, October is the 2nd rainiest month with a normal of 186mm rainfall.
Cyclonic circulation is marked on either side of the coastline in the Southeast Arabian Sea and Southwest Bay of Bengal. The shear line joining the two runs south of the capital city but has a tendency to oscillate. Proximity of this feature is expected to give rain and showers for the city and suburbs over the next few days.
Rains are not likely today and tomorrow. Fleeting rain patches may cause very light and short duration drizzle on Sunday. However, moderate showers can be expected at start of the next week on 16thOctober. The spread and intensity will reduce the next day, 17thOctober. Dry weather conditions are likely on the following 2 days, 18th & 19thOctober. Most of the weather activity will happen during late evening and night hours. Pleasant conditions with slight nip in the air are expected in the morning with cloudy skies. Pleasantly warm afternoon will become a regular feature, hereon.
Southwest Monsoon will retreat completely from the country in the next few days. Onset of northeast monsoon is scheduled around 20thOctober. Post monsoon season tentatively begins after first half of October. October to December marks the prime stormy season for the Indian Seas, both, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Pre monsoon season from March to May is slightly reluctant as compared to post monsoon for storms. Notwithstanding, two cyclonic storms have already formed this year, both extremely severe cyclonic storms, one each in the Bay of Bengal (Mocha) and Arabian Sea (Biparjoy).
Indian seas have an average frequency of 4-5 tropical storms in a year. Bay of Bengal has a share of 60% and the rest 40% originate over the Arabian Sea. Last year, 2 cyclonic storms formed during post monsoon season, both over Bay of Bengal. Tropical storm Sitrang had life cycle of 5 days, from 22 Oct to 25 October 2023. The other tropical storm Mandous had similar life span from 06th Dec to 10th Dec 2023. Cyclonic storm Sitrang made landfall in Bangladesh. Severe Cyclonic Storm Mandous headed for Tamil Nadu coast. It weakened over the sea itself and crossed coast near Chennai as deep depression.
Both the storms of this year weakened a shade, before making landfall. Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) Mocha struck Myanmar, near Sittwe on 14thMay 2023. The other ESCS Biparjoy over the Arabian Sea headed for Gujarat coast and made landfall on 16thJune, near Naliya- Kutch. This cyclone had a long sea travel crossing abeam Coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan, South Gujarat between 06th-15th June 2023.
Conditions are building up over the southeastern parts of the Arabian Sea, next to the equatorial region. Warm Indian Ocean on account of positive IOD and marginally favoured MJO, together may pop up a cyclonic disturbance shortly. It is rather pre-mature to commit anything, other than a cyclonic circulation over the Southeast Arabian Sea around 15thOctober. This may shift over extreme South-Central parts of the ocean in the subsequent 72 hours and may shape up as low pressure area. Very low latitude and unfavourable environmental conditions do not suggest any fast pick up.
There is no ‘suspect area’ at present over the Arabian Sea. But, such perturbations need to be closely observed for any sudden intensification. These weather systems start growing only after crossing a latitude of 10°N. These sea-born disturbances have a very small chance of changing track, pointing towards the Indian coastline. Even when these systems become significantly strong, climatological records suggest sea travel towards Somalia, the Gulf of Aden, Socotra Islands, Yemen and Oman.
In yesterday's game between South Africa and Australia, it was the South Africans that won the game by a whopping 134 runs. It was Quinton De Kock who scored a good 109 runs.
The world cup match between New Zealand and Bangladesh will be held in Chennai on October 13th. We expect warm and sultry weather during the match. Light winds will continue from the southeast direction. Humidity will be very high therefore chances of dew cannot be ruled out.
The weather will be humid and uncomfortable during the first half. However, the dew will fall over the pitch and the ground after around 08:00 pm. This may help the team fielding in the second half.
The temperature at the time of the commencement of the match may be around 31-32 degrees. There will be a gradual drop in temperature during the match and by the end of the match it may be 27-28 degrees. Skies may remain partly cloudy. We do not expect rain during the match. Therefore any disturbance weatherwise is ruled out.
South India has been seeing heavy rainfall for the past few days. In fact, even in the last 24 hours, three-digit rainfall was recorded including Madurai at 125 mm, and Kochi at 90 mm. Such heavy rainfall is not very common, especially, prior to the Northeast Monsoon arrival.
Rainfall activity is expected to continue for a few days but good rains will now remain limited to the state of Kerala.
These rains are in view of the Circulation over Lakshadweep. A trough will be extending from Andhra Pradesh to Comorin. There is a likelihood that a Low Pressure Area may form over the region.
The entire stretch of Kerala will be seeing rainfall activities in the coming days, for at least for the next few days.
October 14 is a good day for celestial enthusiasts across the globe. An annular solar eclipse will be seen on Saturday, the first since the year 2012. In fact, such an eclipse is not expected to be seen until the year 2046.
This is a rare celestial event and will be visible in parts of South and Central America along with Mexico as well as the United States. For those who won't be able to see this, NASA has made it easy and will be live-streaming the same. This is especially important for India as the Eclipse won't be visible here and residents can stream the event live at 4.30 PM IST.
Moreover, NASA has also made an interactive map so as to track the progress of the eclipse. As per NASA, the air may seem cooler and the sky may become dimmer, but not completely dark, as is the case during a total solar eclipse.
Skywatchers have been warned to not look at the beautiful ring of fire through a telescope, camera lens or anything that's an optical device while wearing eclipse glasses as it may cause serious injuries to the eye.
The city of Mumbai has seen the end of Southwest Monsoon for this year. Usually, Mumbai does not see any rains after the Southwest Monsoon unless there is a system that forms along the coast or in the Arabian Sea.
Similar is the case this time, wherein some light rains are all set to be seen in the city of Mumbai around October 15 and 16. A trough is extending along the West Coast right up to the Konkan region.
Also, an active Western Disturbance is expected to be seen around October 13, which will be affecting the mountains and the plains of North India. Thus, the trough along the coast and the circulation of the disturbance, possibly both these systems are getting aligned and will possibly give some light rains over Mumbai.
We do not expect anything disruptive and only light rains are expected over the city of Mumbai. This is quite an unusual event as Mumbai does not generally see rains after Monsoon departs from the city.
