उत्तर पश्चिम भारत में कुछ अच्छी बारिश हुई है, खासकर पहाड़ी इलाकों में। ऐसा पश्चिमी विक्षोभ और उससे प्रेरित चक्रवाती परिसंचरण के कारण हुआ है।
रविवार सुबह 8:30 बजे से पिछले 24 घंटों के दौरान लुधियाना में 16 मिमी, श्री गंगानगर में 16 मिमी, पटियाला में 8 मिमी, अंबाला में 6 मिमी, बीकानेर में 2 मिमी, जोधपुर में 1 मिमी बारिश दर्ज की गई।
यह सिस्टम आज भी सक्रिय रहेगा और ट्रेनों का प्रसार एवं सघनता अधिक रहेगी। पश्चिमी राजस्थान, उत्तर-पश्चिमी राजस्थान, पंजाब, हरियाणा, पश्चिमी उत्तर प्रदेश, दिल्ली और यहां तक कि मध्य प्रदेश के कुछ हिस्सों में मध्यम बारिश के साथ पहाड़ों और तलहटी इलाकों में बारिश और गरज के साथ बौछारें देखने को मिलेंगी।
बारिश और गरज के साथ बौछारें कल भी देखने को मिल सकती हैं, लेकिन बौछारें बहुत हल्की होंगी। हम 18 अक्टूबर को क्लीयरेंस की उम्मीद कर सकते हैं। इसके साथ ही बढ़ा हुआ AQI स्तर भी कम हो जाएगा।
Northwest India has seen some good showers, particularly in the hills. This has been due to the Western Disturbance and its induced Cyclonic Circulation.
During the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Sunday, Ludhiana recorded 16 mm of rains, Sri Ganganagar 16 mm, Patiala 8 mm, Ambala 6 mm, Bikaner 2 mm, Jodhpur 1 mm.
The system will remain active today and the spread and the intensity of trains will be more. Rain and thundershowers will be seen over the hills, foothills with moderate showers over West Rajasthan, Northwest Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, and even parts of Madhya Pradesh.
Rain and thundershowers may be seen tomorrow as well, but the showers will be very light in nature. We can expect clearance on October 18. With this, the AQI levels that have increased in the post-withdrawal period will also reduce.
The Western Disturbance in North India has induced a Cyclonic Circulation in the plains. Yesterday, some parts recorded rainfall activity in the plains but Delhi remain just short of those activities.
Today, we expect moderate rainfall activities over Delhi and the NCR region which will specifically be seen during late evening and night hours. We can see some leftover rain tomorrow as well but showers will be very light. Thereafter, we can expect clearance as the system will move away.
After the passage of the system around October 18, we can expect a drop in temperatures, the minimums at present are around 21-22 degrees. During that time, minimums may see a 4-5 degrees drop and will sustain until the weekend.
There are early signs of the first tropical storm of post-monsoon season coming up in the Arabian Sea. Feeble perturbation is likely to precede the main system anytime soon. Mid-October and later is a favourite and preferred period for evolving cyclones over the Indian Seas. Cessation of active monsoon current reduces the churning of layers and increases the sea surface temperature. A rise in the heat potential triggers cyclogenesis on either side of the Indian coastline, more so, from mid-October to mid-December.
There is a cyclonic circulation lying over the Southeast Arabian Sea and the adjoining Lakshadweep region. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region in the next 24hours. Such weather systems being very low in latitude have to fight against many odds to sustain and grow. After crossing the initial hurdles, further prediction and prognostication become relatively smooth.
The low-pressure area, once established, is expected to organize well and intensify into a depression over the southern parts of the central Arabian Sea. Gaining latitude becomes very essential for further intensification. Any perturbation crossing 15°N and locating west of 65°E stands a fair chance of intensifying into a tropical storm. Further track of these systems is governed by the steering current in the higher levels of the atmosphere and the position of the sub-tropical ridge.
There is no model consensus, as of now, for the clear formation of cyclones. Climatology and sea conditions are not a deterrent, to start with. A window of another 2 days will bring clarity and release the ‘fog’ on the formation of the maiden cyclone, post-withdrawal of monsoon. No tropical storm formed over the Arabian Sea during post-monsoon 2022. Whereas, the Bay of Bengal witnessed two tropical storms, Sitrang and Mandous. Therefore, the statistical probability of cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea becomes higher. The tropical storm, if forms, in the Indian Seas, will be named ‘Tej’.
Such cyclones in the Arabian Sea have a dubious history of track and timelines. These storms keep the meteorologist struggling to decisively predict their further sea travel. Once over the central parts of the Arabian Sea, the more preferred track is to head for Somalia, Gulf of Aden, Yemen and Oman. But on a few occasions, these cyclones take a detour and head for Gujarat and Pakistan coastline. The Arabian Sea will remain under close observation for the development of an exclusive storm of this season.
Just as smartphones have made physical phone books obsolete, navigation apps are making it harder for us to remember directions. It's not just a human issue, but birds are also facing their own navigation problems.
A recent study has dived into the history of bird migration and the impact of space weather events on it. These events disrupt the migration of many birds, including perching birds like thrushes and warblers, as well as ducks, geese, swans, sandpipers, and plovers.
Humans can't feel Earth's magnetic fields, but birds, sea turtles, trout, and others have developed organs to sense them. Birds often rely on these internal compasses for long-distance migration, but when space weather like solar outbursts messes with Earth's magnetic fields, it leaves them lost.
Data from Doppler radar stations and magnetometers shows that during these space weather events, 9-17% fewer birds migrate in the spring and autumn. Birds flying at night have a tough time navigating with their unreliable compasses, especially in overcast autumn conditions.
High geomagnetic disturbances not only reduce the number of migrating birds but also cause them to drift aimlessly with the wind. During strong solar storms in the fall, birds flying thousands of kilometres across the US Great Plains put in only three-quarters of the effort to battle crosswinds and often get lost.
The World Cup match between Australia and Sri Lanka will be played at Lucknow on October 16. The weather is likely to be hot and humid. It will not be easy for the teams as well as for spectators. The time of commencement of the match will be 2:00 p.m. We expect partly cloudy Sky during the start of the match. Cloud cover may increase gradually as the match progresses.
The temperature will be around 33 or 34 degrees at 2:00 p.m. Humidity will be in the range of 40 and 75%. Therefore, we can say that due will be a significant factor during the second half of the match. The temperature will be around 25 and 26 degrees after 8 pm. Winds will be from the Northwest direction and the speed of wind may be between 8 and 12 kmph.
There are chances of light rain during the fag end of the match but we do not expect any interruption due to the Rain activities. Most probably match will end with full overs.
पश्चिमी राजस्थान में अक्टूबर माह में कोई बारिश नहीं हुई है. हालाँकि, राजस्थान के पूर्वी हिस्सों में छिटपुट हल्की बारिश हुई। लेकिन तीव्रता नगण्य है. राजस्थान में बारिश की गतिविधियाँ आमतौर पर पश्चिमी विक्षोभ की स्थिति में होती हैं। जब भी पश्चिमी हिमालय पर कोई तीव्र या सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ होता है, तो यह मध्य पाकिस्तान और राजस्थान के कुछ हिस्सों पर चक्रवाती परिसंचरण को प्रेरित करता है। इन दोनों मौसम प्रणालियों के संयोजन से राजस्थान में छिटपुट बारिश होती है।
एक पश्चिमी विक्षोभ पहले ही पश्चिमी हिमालय के पास पहुँच चुका है और पहाड़ियों पर व्यापक बारिश और छिटपुट बर्फबारी दे रहा है। प्रेरित चक्रवाती परिसंचरण पाकिस्तान के मध्य भागों पर है। हमें उम्मीद है कि अगले 24 से 48 घंटों के दौरान राजस्थान के कई हिस्सों में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश शुरू हो जाएगी। गुजरात से सटे जिले शुष्क रहेंगे। उत्तर-पश्चिमी और पश्चिमी राजस्थान में अलग-अलग जगहों पर ओलावृष्टि की गतिविधियां होने की संभावना है।
राजस्थान में फसलों की कटाई अब खत्म हो चुकी है. इसलिए, हमें कृषक समुदायों पर इस बारिश का कोई प्रतिकूल प्रभाव पड़ने की उम्मीद नहीं है। दरअसल, इस आने वाली बारिश से रबी की फसल को फायदा होगा, जिसकी बुआई अब किसी भी वक्त हो सकती है।
West Rajasthan has not received any rain in the month of October. However, isolated light rain occurred over the eastern parts of Rajasthan. But the intensity is negligible. Rain activities over Rajasthan usually occur in the event of a Western disturbance. Whenever there is an intense or active Western disturbance over the Western Himalayas, it induces cyclonic circulation over Central Pakistan and parts of Rajasthan. The combination of these two weather systems gives scattered rain over Rajasthan.
A western disturbance has already approached the Western Himalayas and is giving widespread rain and isolated snowfall over The Hills. The induced cyclonic circulation is over central parts of Pakistan. We expect light to moderate rain to commence over many parts of Rajasthan during the next 24 to 48 hours. The districts adjacent to Gujarat will remain dry. There are chances of isolated hailstorm activities over Northwest and West Rajasthan.
Harvesting of the crops in Rajasthan is over now. Therefore, we do not expect any adverse impact of these rains on the farming communities. In fact, this upcoming rain will benefit the Rabi crops, which will be sown any time now.
The World Cup cricket match between England and Afghanistan will be played at Arun Jaitley Stadium in Delhi. The match will start at 2:00 p.m. We expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies over Delhi and NCR on October 15. The temperature at the time of the commencement of the match will be around 33 and 34 degrees.
The weather during the first 3 hours of the match will be hot and uncomfortable. There will be a gradual decrease in temperatures during the match. The temperature may drop to 26° after 8:00 p.m. There is a probability of rainfall during the match.
We expect light scattered rain during the second half of the match. The intensity of rain will not be heavy. Therefore, there may be a slight interruption in the match due to the rain. The team that will be fielding afterwards may benefit due to the moisture over the pitch and ground.
पिछले कई दिनों से उत्तर पश्चिम भारत के अधिकांश हिस्सों में शुष्क मौसम की स्थिति बनी हुई है। हालाँकि 9 अक्टूबर को पंजाब के उत्तरी जिलों में बारिश और ओलावृष्टि देखी गई, लेकिन उस दौरान पंजाब के साथ-साथ हरियाणा के अधिकांश हिस्से शुष्क रहे।
अब एक सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ पश्चिमी हिमालय के करीब पहुंच गया है। इसका असर बारिश और बर्फबारी के रूप में पश्चिमी हिमालय की पहाड़ियों पर महसूस किया जाएगा। हालाँकि, पंजाब, हरियाणा और दिल्ली के कई हिस्सों में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश हो सकती है। 14 अक्टूबर को पंजाब और हरियाणा के कुछ हिस्सों में बारिश की गतिविधियाँ शुरू होंगी।
बारिश की ये गतिविधियाँ 15 अक्टूबर को लगभग पूरे पंजाब, हरियाणा, दिल्ली, उत्तर प्रदेश और राजस्थान के कुछ हिस्सों को कवर कर सकती हैं। 16 अक्टूबर को पंजाब और उत्तरी हरियाणा के साथ-साथ पश्चिम राजस्थान के कुछ हिस्सों में बारिश की तीव्रता काफी बढ़ सकती है और छिटपुट ओलावृष्टि की संभावना है। .
उत्तर पश्चिम भारत में 17 अक्टूबर से मौसम साफ होना शुरू हो जाएगा लेकिन स्थानीय गतिविधियां 20 या 21 अक्टूबर तक जारी रह सकती हैं। पंजाब, हरियाणा, दिल्ली और उत्तरी राजस्थान में 18 अक्टूबर से न्यूनतम तापमान गिरना शुरू हो सकता है। पंजाब और हरियाणा में 15 अक्टूबर से और दिल्ली, राजस्थान और पश्चिम उत्तर प्रदेश में 16 अक्टूबर से अधिकतम तापमान में 2 से 3 डिग्री की गिरावट देखी जा सकती है।
El Nino and IOD are both active over the respective Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also striding to keep pace with Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). A negative SOI and moderate El Nino invariably become synonymous during the periodic fluctuation of pressure and temperature over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The reason behind the warming and cooling of the Nino regions remains an alien territory but the two components of ENSO – sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure display strong binding.
ENSO: El Nino's impact on the southwest monsoon just got concluded. During the El Nino event, as it usually happens, the easterly trade winds converging across the equatorial Pacific remained weak, more so, during the 2nd half of the season. This restricted the upwelling of cold water and allowed warm surface water to dig deep over the eastern parts of the basin. The southwest monsoon 2023 of the Indian sub-continent finds a distant reflection of the El Nino 2018-19 season. El Nino is predicted to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winters and weaken to become ENSO-neutral during the spring season of 2024.
Oceanic indicators strongly exhibit an El Nino state. All the Nino indices remain above the threshold by a sufficient margin. Nino 3.4, the principal measure for predicting ENSO and the sole measure of Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) firmly support the ongoing event. The ONI for the last two quarters, Jun-Jul-Aug and Jul-Aug-Sep, with respective values of 1.1 and 1.3, strongly defend the ocean-atmosphere coupling. ONI is anticipated to exceed 1.3 for the next quarter, as well.
IOD: The positive Indian Ocean Dipole continue to strengthen. The latest value of the index for the week ending 08 Oct 2023 was 1.85°C. This is the highest score since October 2019 when the index reached an all time of 2.15°C during the week 07-13 October 2019. Earlier, ever increasing positive dipole index saved monsoon 2019 from scare of drought. Season 2019, opening with a terrible deficit of 33% rainfall in June, recovered to register surplus of 15% in the core monsoon month of August and a deluge with excess of 53% rainfall in the closing month of September. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) nearly ended in excess recording 109.96% rainfall of LPA. But for the positive IOD, evolving just in time, during late August and September, monsoon 2023 could have reached on the brink of yet another drought. August 2023, with a pitiable all time high deficit of 36% rainfall, nearly dragged the monsoon towards scary finish. Rising IOD index from 1°C in first week to 1.5°C at the end, neutralized ill effects of El Nino, to save grace of the season, ending below normal at 94% of LPA.
Positive IOD event is likely to continue. It is expected to peak in November-December. This means that South Arabian Sea in the proximity of equatorial Indian Ocean is likely to stay warmer during the northeast monsoon season. This also translates in to better rainfall distribution and spread over South Peninsular India during the winter monsoon 2023. The IOD event, as it usually happens, starts fading out during the winters and early spring of Northern Hemisphere.
MJO: Although, far from the area of our context, the Madden-Julian Oscillation has reflected spike in the amplitude over the past pew days. Currently, it is placed over Western Hemisphere in phase-1, with enhanced cycle of activity. The atmospheric response to ongoing El Nino conditions is also playing a significant role in the tropical convective pattern, accentuating ‘pulse’ of cloud and rain associated with MJO. However, the growing positive IOD event may increasingly interfere with the growing signal of MJO, as it propagates eastward. The amplitude of MJO is likely to slash and remain confined to the inner ring, as it travels to phase-2 over the Indian Ocean in the 3rd week of October. Tropical cyclone activity is likely over Western Pacific and South China Sea. Also, favourable potential for weather perturbations over the Arabian Sea due to warm sea surface. Yet, it may not amplify to a storm due to lack of environmental support.
Southwest monsoon is on the verge of complete withdrawal from the Indian region. No powerful trigger in sight, so far, for early arrival of northeast monsoon over South Peninsula. Northeasterly flow is surely getting aligned over Bay of Bengal, a pre-requisite for onset of winter monsoon over southern parts of the country.
Dry weather conditions have been going on over most parts of Northwest India for the past many days. Although the northern districts of Punjab saw rain and hailstorms on October 9, most parts of Punjab as well as Haryana remained dry during that time.
Now an active western disturbance has approached the Western Himalayas. Its impact will be felt across the Hills of the western Himalayas in the form of rain and snowfall. However, many parts of Punjab Haryana and Delhi may witness scattered light to moderate rain. Rain activities will commence over Punjab and parts of Haryana on October 14.
These rain activities may cover almost the entire Punjab, Haryana, Delhi parts of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan on October 15. The intensity of rain may increase significantly over Punjab and North Haryana as well as parts of West Rajasthan on October 16 with chances of isolated hailstorms.
The weather will start clearing up from October 17 from Northwest India but localized activity may continue until October 20 or 21st. The minimum temperature may start dropping from October 18 onward over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and North Rajasthan. Maximum temperatures may also witness a fall of 2 to 3° from October 15 over Punjab and Haryana and from October 16 over Delhi, Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh.
