Twin Storms Coming Up Over Indian Seas, Arabian Sea To Lead Specter

Both the Indian Seas, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, have become active basin for stormy activities. Both sides of the Indian coastline are likely to witness tropical storm, first of this post monsoon season. Arabian Sea will take the lead to churn a cyclone as early as, on this weekend. Chances are growing for Bay of Bengal, as well, to follow the suit and host a storm by early next week.

Under the influence of a persisting cyclonic circulation followed by a low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea, a depression has formed over west-central Arabian Sea. The depression is centered around 9°N and 61°E, about 1000 km away from Somali coast. The system is having compact low level cyclonic circulation surrounded by deep convective cloud clusters. The depression is in the favourable region for further rapid intensification, with warm sea surface temperature (30°-31°C), light to moderate vertical wind shear (10-15 Kts) and typical equatorward outflow.

Depression is likely to intensify fast in to a cyclonic storm which will be named ‘Tej’, as proposed by India. The storm will move northwest away from Indian coastline and head for Yemen coast. Tej is expected to make landfall around late night 23^rd Oct or early 24^th Oct 2023. Defying other predictions, GFS model continue to track the cyclone, dangerously close to Yemen-Oman coast, moving northeastward. In this case, the storm will enter the open waters of Northwest Arabian Sea again and head for Indus Delta region of Pakistan. More clarity will evolve after the system intensifies to a cyclonic storm.

Under the influence of another cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal, a low pressure area has formed over south-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. Low pressure will consolidate and move slowly towards west-central and adjoining northwest BoB. It is likely to become a depression on 22^nd Oct and strengthen further to a deep depression , the next day. There are promising signs of this system developing in to a cyclonic storm, sometime around 24^thOctober. Further, concrete assertions can be made, only after the low pressure turns in to a depression. This storm, if developed, will be named ‘Hamoon’.

Simultaneous occurrence of tropical storm on either side of Indian coastline may not be observed very often. But, the storms, when formed, will be separated by a large distance, in excess of 2500 km. Therefore, being far from the reach of each other, Tej and Hamoon will traverse their track, independently. Also, development of storms in the Indian Seas, quite early in the season, leave ample chance to have a repeat, before close of this year.

Clear weather in Bengaluru as Australia takes on Pakistan in WC Match 18

The 18th instalment of the ICC World Cup cricket match will be played between Australia and Pakistan in Bengaluru on October 20. The match will be played in M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru, at 2:00 p.m.. Pakistan is fourth on the table, with two wins in three games, but five-time winners Australia is in seventh position, with just one win in the first three matches.

At the time of the commencement of the match at 2:00 p.m., the temperature will be 30 degrees, the sky will be almost clear with isolated patches of Clouds. Light winds will be blowing from the easterly direction. The humidity range will be between 40 and 58%. Therefore, the chances of dew are very low. Weather will become cool during the second half of the match as the temperatures will start dropping and will be in the range of 21 and 22 degrees. We do not expect any disruption weather-wise during the match.

[Hindi] दिल्ली में हुआ तापमान कम, सप्ताहांत के आसपास हल्की बारिश की संभावना

दिल्ली और एनसीआर में कुछ दिन पहले बारिश की गतिविधियां देखी गईं। तब से तापमान सामान्य से काफी नीचे चल रहा है। उत्तर भारत की पहाड़ियों पर एक पश्चिमी विक्षोभ था और इसका प्रेरित परिसंचरण मैदानी इलाकों पर था, जिसके परिणामस्वरूप इतना तापमान था।

तब से, न्यूनतम जो पहले 20 के दशक की शुरुआत में थे, उच्च किशोरावस्था में बसना शुरू हो गए हैं। इसके अलावा, आज जैसे ही सिस्टम दूर चला गया, न्यूनतम सफदरजंग में 15.9 डिग्री और रिज पर 13.1 डिग्री तक गिर गया। न्यूनतम तापमान सामान्य से नीचे रहेगा लेकिन 21 अक्टूबर को एक पश्चिमी विक्षोभ आएगा और 2-3 डिग्री की वृद्धि हो सकती है।

सिस्टम के कारण 22 और 23 को हल्की, 22 को ज्यादा बारिश देखने को मिल सकती है। ये हल्की बारिश शर्ट अवधि की होगी और कुछ खास होने की उम्मीद नहीं है। हमें न्यूनतम तापमान में कोई उल्लेखनीय वृद्धि नहीं दिख रही है लेकिन यह 18 डिग्री या उसके आसपास रह सकता है। इस प्रकार, तापमान में उतार-चढ़ाव की संभावना है।

Kolkata celebrates Durga Puja amidst clear weather, rains likely by the end of festivities

The Durga Puja celebrations have begun in Kolkata and as the days progress, it will be celebrated with all the more fervour and pomp and show.

For now, the city of Kolkata is not expected to see any rains as such until Ashtami. However, on 23rd and 24th October, there is a possibility of some rains over the City of Joy.

A Cyclonic Circulation is over the Bay of Bengal and is expected to become a Low Pressure Area. The exact further location of the system is uncertain at the moment but it will soon come close to the coastline of Odisha around October 23rd or so.

Between 23 and 24th, some showers are expected as the system will come close to Odisha. Moreover, on October 23, light rainfall activity is expected around that time. On the 24th moderate showers will be seen, which may play a spoiler in the festivities of Durga Puja.

Temperatures reduce significantly over hills of North India, sub zero minimum in Pahalgam, Gulmarg

The hills of North India are seeing clear weather conditions after the passage of the Western Disturbance. No significant weather is expected for the mountains until another system arrives.

The temperatures have dropped to single digits in many parts of the hills. Moreover, popular resort destinations like Pahalgam and Gulmarg have recorded sub-zero minimums at -0.6 degrees Celsius and -1.3 degrees, respectively. Srinagar also saw the minimum at 4.7 degrees for the first time this season. Temperatures are expected to follow a similar trend for the next few days.

A feeble Western Disturbance is expected to approach the Western Himalayas around 22nd. Thus, after the 22nd, we can expect a further dip in the temperatures. The mid reaches of Pahalgam, Gulmarg, Manali and Kullu will observe such temperatures. From hereon, under 5 degrees will be seen mostly over the region paving way for wintry conditions across North Indian hills.

Storm Probability Over Arabian Sea Grows Big, No Threat To Indian Coast

The low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjoining region has further consolidated. During the process of reorganization, it is now centred around 10°N and 64°E, over 1000 km away from the coast, west abeam Cochin. It is likely to become well-marked and move west-northwest over the southwest and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea. There is a fair chance for further intensification to a depression first, on 21st October and quickly turning into a cyclonic storm in the subsequent 24-36 hours.

Sea surface temperature and wind field are favourable for the deepening of the weather system. However, the surface temperatures are lowering by almost 2°C over extreme western parts of the Arabian Sea in the proximity of the coastline of Yemen and Oman. Possibly, the heat potential may drop during the final leg of the storm, which seems to be heading for Yemen, very close to Salalah. The cyclonic storm which will be named ‘Tej’ is expected to strike the coast, tentatively on 23^rd October 2023.

Still, there is no model consensus on the track, intensity and timelines of Tej. Yes, there are concrete assertions for the development of the first storm of post-monsoon 2023 over the Arabian Sea. Earlier, in the pre-monsoon season, an extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ struck the Gujarat coast on 16th June 2023. GFS model supports the recurvature of Tej while positioned over the far-west Arabian Sea. Though little pre-mature to predict the track, it may move northeastward, dangerously close, along the coastline of Yemen and Oman. In such an eventuality, the storm may enter the open waters of the northwest Arabian Sea again, and later head for the Indus Delta region of Pakistan.

Cyclonic storms are known for dubious characteristics and notorious enough to defy the track, timelines and intensity. Post-monsoon storms over the western half of the Arabian Sea always keep the Pakistan and Gujarat coastline on tenterhooks. The recurving storms need to be kept under close observation for any adverse impact.

Warm and sunny Pune to host India Bangladesh Clash in WC Match 17

India has had a very good start to the World Cup and has been on a winning streak since then. In fact, its last meet up with Pakistan was a pretty successful one. Moreover, India has so far played three games and won all of them.

Today, in the 17th instalment of the ICC World Cup 2023, India will face Bangladesh in Pune at the Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium at 2:00 Pm. We expect clear weather conditions throughout the match duration with few clouds.

The weather will remain warm and sunny. The temperature will be around 32 degrees at 2:00 p.m. The weather will become comfortable casually due to a gradual decrease in temperatures. Humidity level will be around 40%. The humidity levels will increase to 60% by the end of the match but we do not expect dew to fall over the pitch or the ground during the match.

Light winds are expected to blow from the easterly direction. We do not expect any interruption in the match as no rains are expected over the city.

Rains to continue in Kerala and Tamil Nadu

Rainfall activity will remain confined to southern parts for now. Rainfall in the northern regions has taken a break as the Western Disturbance has moved away.

Both the states of Kerala and the interior parts of Tamil Nadu are the ones that will continue to see rains.

As far as the Indian basins are concerned, conditions are quite active over the Indian subcontinent. There is a system on either side of the coast but they are keeping a safe distance from the coasts, thus no harsh weather is likely.

However, these system's peripherals will give scattered rains in Kerala and Interior Tamil Nadu for at least the next two to three days.

Southwest Monsoon withdrawal is almost complete, to withdraw fully soon

Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal is nearly complete now. At present, the Northern Limit of Monsoon is passing through Vengurla, which is just a little bit of Goa and North Interior Karnataka.

The Southwest Monsoon has completely withdrawn from Northeast India, Central as well as North India. Only for the West Coast, a little bit is left. Moreover, practically, Monsoon has retreated from almost the entire country, barring a speck of area on the West Coast.

The normal date is 15th October, which is within plus or minus acceptable days. After the withdrawal, the focus will shift to Northeast Monsoon will be seen. The main beneficiaries of Northeast Monsoon are Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, and South Interior Karnataka but then rains go as much as to South Interior Karnataka and Telangana.

Bay Of Bengal Chase Low Pressure Area, Further Prospects Still Vague

The embedded cyclonic circulations in the northeasterly flow over Bay of Bengal (BoB) have finally joined together. A broad cyclonic circulation is now marked over Southeast and adjoining Central BoB. It is expected to consolidate further over the same area for the next 48 hours. Once organized, a low pressure area is likely to form over Central parts of BoB. Further prospects of this likely system are incomplete, as of now. ‘Wait & Watch’ period of about 3 days is envisaged for any firm prediction.

Number of tropical storms have come up around mid-October over BoB, with few of them in the recent past. Therefore, possibility of getting another storm can not be set aside. Albeit, formation of such a system is absolutely tentative and also inconclusive on further prospects, as on date. Withdrawal of southwest monsoon and ushering of seasonal northeasterly stream over most parts of Bay of Bengal surely provides a trigger, for any such eventuality.

Likely low pressure area over Central BoB is expected to meander over the region for 2-3 days. During this phase, the weather system will pick up strength and manifest sharply in the wind field and satellite imageries. Once the system prepares to intensify into a tropical storm, the entire eastern coastline comes under scanner of its impact. Odisha and West Bengal become more vulnerable than the rest of eastern shore. Second half of October does not spare even Bangladesh and Myanmar from a possible storm strike.

[Hindi] उत्तर भारत के मैदानी इलाकों में बारिश से तापमान हो गया काफी कम

पश्चिमी हिमालय क्षेत्र में पश्चिमी विक्षोभ और मैदानी इलाकों में इसके प्रेरित चक्रवाती हवाओं के क्षेत्र के कारण उत्तर भारत के मैदानी इलाकों में कुछ अच्छी बारिश की गतिविधियाँ देखी गई हैं।

पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के गुजरने के बाद अब मौसम साफ हो गया है। इस प्रणाली के मद्देनजर न्यूनतम और अधिकतम दोनों में उल्लेखनीय गिरावट देखी गई है। दरअसल, एक दिन पहले भी न्यूनतम तापमान में गिरावट देखी गई थी।

इसके बाद, आज अधिकतम तापमान में भारी गिरावट दर्ज की गई, अंबाला सामान्य से 5 डिग्री नीचे, हिसार सामान्य से 10 डिग्री नीचे, लुधियाना सामान्य से 6 डिग्री नीचे, अमृतसर सामान्य से 9 डिग्री नीचे और पठानकोट सामान्य से 7 डिग्री नीचे रहा।

सुबह के समय हल्की हवा के साथ हवा में काफी ठंडक रही। आने वाले दिनों में भी कम तापमान जारी रहने की संभावना है। 2-3 दिनों के बाद, दिन के तापमान में थोड़ी वृद्धि होगी लेकिन न्यूनतम तापमान वही रहेगा।

Rain over plains of North India reduces temperature significantly

The plains of North India have seen some good rainfall activities all thanks to the western disturbance in the Western Himalayan region and its induced cyclonic circulation over the plains.

Now the weather has cleared after the passage of Western Disturbance. In the wake of the system, a significant drop has been seen in both minimums and maximums. In fact, minimums had seen a drop a day before as well.

Thereafter, it was the maximum temperatures that registered a significant drop today with Ambala settling at 5 degrees below normal, Hisar was 10 degrees below normal, Ludhiana at 6 degrees below normal, Amritsar was 9 degrees below normal and Pathankot at 7 degrees below normal.

There has been a fair amount of nip in the air with a light breeze in the morning h0urs. Low temperatures are likely to continue in the coming days as well. After 2-3 days, day temperatures will see a marginal rise a bit but minimums will stay the same.