Season's first cyclonic storm that had formed yesterday has intensified into a very severe Cyclonic Storm. Moreover, Very Severe Cyclone Tej has become an extremely severe Cyclonic storm during the morning hours.
During the morning hours, the extremely severe storm was centred near Latitude 12.3 degrees North and Longitude 55.4 degrees East, about 160 km SSE of Socotra, 540 km SSE of Salalah, and 550 km SE of Al Ghadiah.
The storm is expected to move in a northwestward direction and will cross coast between the Yemen and Oman border close to Salalah by tomorrow, i.e. October 24.
Tej is expected to weaken much before the landfall to a severe cyclonic storm due to entrainment, friction due to the proximity of land and a drop in sea surface temperatures.
The World Cup cricket match will be played between India and New Zealand in Dharamshala today, i.e. on October 22nd. The match will start at 2:00 p.m. We do not expect any significant weather activity during the match. Therefore, any obstruction whether wise is ruled out.
The weather will remain cool and comfortable throughout the duration of the match. Moreover, the temperatures may be around 24 or 25 degrees at 2:00 p.m. There will be a gradual decrease in temperatures as the match progresses. Temperature may drop to 15 degrees by 9:00 p.m.
Humidity will remain between 50 and 70%. There are chances of mild dew during the second half of the match. The sky may be partly cloudy. Light winds will blow from the northeast direction.
पिछले कई दिनों से राजस्थान के साथ-साथ उत्तर पश्चिम भारत के अधिकांश हिस्सों में मौसम लगभग शुष्क बना हुआ है। अधिकतम तापमान में वृद्धि हुई है जिससे गर्म मौसम की स्थिति पैदा हो गई है। दूसरी ओर, न्यूनतम तापमान में गिरावट देखी गई है। सुबह और रात ठंडी और आरामदायक होती है।
ताजा कमजोर पश्चिमी विक्षोभ उत्तर पश्चिम भारत की ओर आ रहा है। इसका प्रभाव राजस्थान के उत्तर-पश्चिमी और पश्चिमी भागों में हल्की छिटपुट वर्षा के रूप में अधिक होगा। राजस्थान में कुछ तूफानी गतिविधियां हो सकती हैं।
हालांकि, पंजाब के साथ-साथ पश्चिमी हिमालय पर इसका असर काफी कम होगा। पंजाब के पश्चिमी जिलों में हल्की बारिश हो सकती है | पश्चिमी हिमालय के कुछ हिस्सों जैसे गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान, मुजफ्फराबाद, लद्दाख, जम्मू कश्मीर और हिमाचल प्रदेश के अलग-अलग इलाकों में भी हल्की बारिश हो सकती है। उत्तर पश्चिम भारत में दिन के तापमान में मामूली गिरावट और न्यूनतम तापमान में मामूली वृद्धि हो सकती है।
इस पश्चिमी विक्षोभ का असर 23 अक्टूबर तक रहेगा। इसके बाद, मौसम शुष्क होने की उम्मीद है और तापमान एक बार फिर बढ़ना शुरू हो जाएगा।
The weather in Rajasthan as well as most parts of Northwest India has been almost dry for the last many days. Maximum temperatures have increased leading to hot weather conditions. On the other hand, minimum temperatures have shown a downward trend. Morning and night are cool and comfortable.
Fresh feeble Western disturbance is approaching Northwest India. Its impact will be more over northwest and western parts of Rajasthan in terms of a light scattered rainfall. There may be some thunderstorm activities over Rajasthan.
However, its impact on Punjab as well as the Western Himalayas will be much less. Western districts of Punjab may receive light rain. Parts of the Western Himalayas such as Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Ladakh, Jammu Kashmir, and isolated pockets of Himachal Pradesh may also receive light rain activity. There may be a marginal drop in day temperature and a marginal rise in minimums over Northwest India.
The impact of this Western disturbance will be until October 23rd. Thereafter, the weather is expected to go dry and temperatures will start rising once again.
United States weather agency, Climate Prediction Center( CPC), anticipates the continuation of El Nino through the Northern Hemisphere spring (Mar-May 2024). Australian Bureau is also aligned with a similar forecast and expects El Nino to persist until, at least the end of February. The different time periods of the two agencies can be attributed to the exclusive threshold marker of defining El Nino. While the Bureau of Australia considers +0.8°C as a threshold, CPC treats +0.5°C as the ‘brink’ value. Threshold for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains the prerogative of Bureau of Meteorology-Australia and Jamstec ( Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology). The threshold mark for IOD is settled at +/- 0.4°C.
In the Indian context, El Nino and IOD impact is considered limited to the four-month-long southwest monsoon season from June to September. However, both these oceanic parameters result in large climatic fluctuations around the globe, in different time frames. ‘Super’ El Nino and ‘Great’ IOD, are both brewing in the Pacific and Indian Ocean respectively. Possibly, the peak is yet to come. The likelihood of a robust El Nino during the fall of the year or early next year stands at 75%-80%, wherein the equatorial SST’s could be at least 1.5°C higher than the average for an extended period. There is also 30% chance that temperatures may exceed 2°C, resembling the strong El Nino event of 1997-98 and 2015-16, which caused extreme heat, droughts and floods, worldwide.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole is still rising and has reached its 6th highest weekly index value since records for the Bureau SST data set began. Earlier, the highest value of the index touched an all-time high of +2.15°C during the week 07-13 October 2019. The IOD index is +1.92°C for the week ending 15 Oct 2023. When a positive IOD and El Nino occur together, their drying effect is typically strong and more widespread across Australian spring and monsoon.
ENSO: Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST’s) are above the average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, the latter being much warmer than the former. Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) represented by the Nino 3.4 region continues to be warmer by >/= 1.5°C for the 8th consecutive week. Persistence of such high temperatures for 12 weeks or more stipulates ‘Super’ El Nino. This is quite likely during the current episode.
ENSO is an ocean - atmosphere coupling. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) represents the response of atmosphere to the Nino conditions. There are ample signs of atmosphere responding favourably to the warm SST’s over the Pacific. Coupling of ocean and atmosphere seems to be fairly strong.
IOD : IOD is an ocean-atmosphere interaction, very similar to the El Nino fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean. But, it is a much weaker system than El Nino and thus has relatively limited impact. Notwithstanding, the positive IOD does have the potential to offset to a small measure in the neighbouring areas. Currently, the positive IOD is continuing to strengthen. The IOD index value was 1.92°C for the week ending 15Oct 2023.
Super El Nino and strong positive IOD spell double whammy for Oceania continent. This deadly combination typically leads to reduced spring and early summer rainfall, for eastern Australia and warmer days for the southern parts of the country.
MJO : The Madden-Julian Oscillation has shown signs of renewed activity since early October. Continued eastward propagation of MJO, over Phase 1&8, with marginal amplification in magnitude augurs well for the monsoon activity over Indian Seas. However, there is good deal of uncertainty with respect to the strength and evolution of intra-seasonal activity on account of MJO. Strong +VE IOD riding over super El Nino is driving the global tropical convective activity and relying less on the transiting signal of MJO.
The prospects of ‘Super’ El Nino raises concerns about disturbing typical weather pattern and extreme weather events. In the Indian context, it is observed that El Nino impact is generally less pronounced in Southern India during Northeast Monsoon. Also, onset of winters are expected to be early and the winter rains over North India, generally better.
The 20th instalment of the World Cup cricket match between England and South Africa will be played at Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai on October 21st at 2:00 p.m. At the time of the commencement of the match, the temperature will be around 33 degrees. Humidity will be high around 76%.
The first half of the match will witness hot and humid weather conditions. It will be an uncomfortable situation for players as well as for spectators. Dew is expected over the pitch and ground by late evening. The impact of the due will be felt during the second half of the match.
Temperatures may drop gradually but the weather will remain warm and humid throughout the match. By the end of the match, temperatures may be around 29 or 30 degrees. The sky will be partly cloudy but the chances of rain are ruled out.
The depression in the Arabian Sea has intensified into a Cyclonic Storm, Tej today morning. The system was a depression yesterday and underwent rapid intensification from a depression to a deep depression and then into a Cyclone during the early morning hours.
The storm is centred about 10 degrees north and 60 degrees East this morning. The storm is far away from the Indian coast and is deep into the open waters.
Because of its position, deep into the Arabian Sea, conditions are quite favourable for further intensification of the storm. Sea surface temperatures are very warm and there is low to medium vertical wind shear. Along with this, there is no friction at the moment because of its distance from coasts including Yemen and the Oman Coast.
The storm is expected to become a severe cyclone in the next 24 hours and later into a very severe cyclonic storm in 48 hours. It is likely to head for Yemen-Oman Coast. As it closes it to the coast, it will weaken because of entrainment, friction and proximity of the coast. But this will happen around late 24th and early 25th October, tentatively.
A low-pressure area has formed over the south-central and adjoining southeast region of the Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation had already formed over the Bay of Bengal under whose influence the system has formed.
We expect the system to intensify further and move towards the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal. In fact, in just about 48 hours, this system is expected to become a depression, which is on October 22. Moreover, there is a very likely possibility of this system becoming a deep depression on October 23.
The system will shift north-northeastward abeam North Odisha and the Bengal Coast. However, it will maintain a safe distance from the coasts.
There are some signs that indicate that this system may also become a mild cyclonic storm, sometime around 24th-25th October. However, it is slightly premature to talk about the system's further development as of now. If formed, the Cyclone will be named ‘Hamoon’.
दक्षिण-पश्चिम मॉनसून ने आख़िरकार अपनी वापसी की प्रक्रिया पूरी कर ली है और पूरे देश से विदाई ले ली है। पिछले दो वर्षों के विपरीत निकासी समय पर हुई है। सामान्य निकासी की तारीख 15 अक्टूबर है जिसका अर्थ है कि यह तारीख समय पर प्लस माइनस तारीखों के बीच है।
जब भी निकासी की रेखा आंध्र प्रदेश और कर्नाटक तक जाती है, तो निकासी पूरी मानी जाती है। वर्तमान में यह लाइन गोवा के दक्षिण, उत्तरी आंतरिक कर्नाटक, तेलंगाना, आंध्र प्रदेश और पूरे पूर्वोत्तर भारत से होकर गुजर रही है।
इससे पूर्वोत्तर मानसून के आगमन का मार्ग भी प्रशस्त हो गया है। तमिलनाडु और आंध्र प्रदेश तट से दूर बंगाल की खाड़ी के ऊपर हवाओं का उत्तर-पूर्वी प्रवाह बना हुआ है। बंगाल की खाड़ी में कम दबाव का क्षेत्र बना हुआ है, जो तट के करीब नहीं आ रहा है | इस प्रकार, सामान्य पूर्वोत्तर मॉनसून की शुरुआती बारिश इन भागों में नहीं हो सकती है और यह बहुत कमजोर शुरुआत हो सकती है।
Southwest Monsoon has finally completed its withdrawal process and has bid adieu to the entire country. The withdrawal has been timely unlike the last two years. The normal withdrawal date is October 15th which means that the date lies between the timely plus minus dates.
Whenever the line of withdrawal goes up to Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, the withdrawal is considered complete. The line at present is passing through South of Goa, North Interior Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and entire Northeast India.
This also paves the way for the onset of Northeast Monsoon. The northeasterly flow of winds has been there over Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh Coast. There is a Low Pressure Area in the Bay of Bengal, which is not coming closer to the coast. Thus, typical Northeast Monsoon onset rains may elude these parts and it might may be a very weak onset.
A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to affect the hills of North India tomorrow. However, this system will be a feeble one which will not be as strong as compared to the previous system in terms of spread, intensity as well as time spent.
Rains will be seen on October 21 and will also have an effect on October 22. On October 21, the system will cover parts of North Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir. Thereafter on October 22, Northeast Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana will see some showers and light rains are expected over Delhi as well.
The minimum temperatures which were taking a little dip may rise over these areas. Moreover, Delhi may see minimums around 18 degrees around that time and hold for two to three days before they drop again.
For the hills, higher reaches are expected to see some snowfall while rains will be seen over the lower and the mid reaches.
Both the Indian Seas, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, have become active basin for stormy activities. Both sides of the Indian coastline are likely to witness tropical storm, first of this post monsoon season. Arabian Sea will take the lead to churn a cyclone as early as, on this weekend. Chances are growing for Bay of Bengal, as well, to follow the suit and host a storm by early next week.
Under the influence of a persisting cyclonic circulation followed by a low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea, a depression has formed over west-central Arabian Sea. The depression is centered around 9°N and 61°E, about 1000 km away from Somali coast. The system is having compact low level cyclonic circulation surrounded by deep convective cloud clusters. The depression is in the favourable region for further rapid intensification, with warm sea surface temperature (30°-31°C), light to moderate vertical wind shear (10-15 Kts) and typical equatorward outflow.
Depression is likely to intensify fast in to a cyclonic storm which will be named ‘Tej’, as proposed by India. The storm will move northwest away from Indian coastline and head for Yemen coast. Tej is expected to make landfall around late night 23rd Oct or early 24th Oct 2023. Defying other predictions, GFS model continue to track the cyclone, dangerously close to Yemen-Oman coast, moving northeastward. In this case, the storm will enter the open waters of Northwest Arabian Sea again and head for Indus Delta region of Pakistan. More clarity will evolve after the system intensifies to a cyclonic storm.
Under the influence of another cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal, a low pressure area has formed over south-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. Low pressure will consolidate and move slowly towards west-central and adjoining northwest BoB. It is likely to become a depression on 22nd Oct and strengthen further to a deep depression , the next day. There are promising signs of this system developing in to a cyclonic storm, sometime around 24thOctober. Further, concrete assertions can be made, only after the low pressure turns in to a depression. This storm, if developed, will be named ‘Hamoon’.
Simultaneous occurrence of tropical storm on either side of Indian coastline may not be observed very often. But, the storms, when formed, will be separated by a large distance, in excess of 2500 km. Therefore, being far from the reach of each other, Tej and Hamoon will traverse their track, independently. Also, development of storms in the Indian Seas, quite early in the season, leave ample chance to have a repeat, before close of this year.
