Air pollution over Delhi and NCR has increased significantly during the last week. The air quality index of Delhi and adjoining areas is in a very poor category. Nehru Nagar, Jahangirpuri, Bavana, Mundka, and Sultanpur are some of the areas where air pollution is very high. The main reason for the sudden spike in pollution levels can be attributed to a drop in minimum temperature as well as calm and very light winds. The winds over Northwest India remain mostly calm.
Due to the low temperature and the light winds mist and haze usually develop during the morning hours. And the pollutants including dust and smoke particles get deposited on the water vapour available in mist and haze. In the absence of moderate or strong winds, pollutants do not disperse and remain suspended near the earth's surface for a longer duration. That is the reason the air quality index is in the very poor category.
We do not expect any significant improvement in the AQI in the coming days either as the pollutants are not able to disperse and more and more local pollution is being added we expect that the AQI may become severe in the next 2 to 3 days.
It is advised not to do intense outdoor activities during morning and evening hours. Avoid prolonged or heavy exertion. Go for a short walk instead of a jog and take more breaks. If the room has windows, close them.
India is all set to play its sixth World Cup Match today, i.e. on October 29. This is the 29th instalment of the World Cup cricket match, being played between India and England will take place at the Ekana Cricket Stadium in Lucknow. The match will start at 2:00 p.m.
The temperature at the time of commencement of the match will be around 32 degrees. High clouds are possible in the sky. These clouds are not capable of giving any rain therefore, the weather will remain clear. Humidity will be between 30 and 55%. We do not expect dew over the pitch or the ground during the match.
The weather is expected to become comfortable after 6:00 p.m. Temperatures may drop to 22 degrees by 10 p.m.
North-East monsoon commenced over the South Peninsula with a delay of around four days. Despite the onset, Northeast monsoon remained weak. Northeasterly winds over the Bay of Bengal were obstructed by Cyclone Hamoon. Now, the cyclone has dissipated and northeasterly winds have strengthened.
Rain activities will now commence over the South Peninsula and the northeast monsoon will also become active. Until now Kerala had been receiving a few good spells of rain and isolated rain was reported over Tamil Nadu. But now, rain activities will intensify over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Karnataka until October 31st.
Rain activities may subside a little bit November 1 onward, but scattered rain may continue over Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Another surge of Northeast monsoon will be between November 3rd and 6th. Although we do not expect heavy to very heavy downpours over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. But the weather will not be completely dry and scattered rain will continue.
पश्चिमी विक्षोभ की तीव्रता और आवृत्ति काफी कम हो गई है। पश्चिमी हिमालय में मौसम पूरी तरह से शुष्क हो गया है और अगले एक सप्ताह तक उत्तर भारत की पहाड़ियों के पास किसी भी सक्रिय पश्चिमी विक्षोभ के आने की संभावना नहीं है।
3 नवंबर से मध्यम तीव्रता का पश्चिमी विक्षोभ हिल्स के पास आने की संभावना है। पहाड़ों पर हल्की से मध्यम बारिश और बर्फबारी हो सकती है। गिलगित-बाल्टिस्तान, मुजफ्फराबाद, लद्दाख, जम्मू कश्मीर और हिमाचल प्रदेश में बारिश की गतिविधियां बढ़ सकती हैं। उत्तराखंड में भी हल्की बारिश और बर्फबारी हो सकती है।
पश्चिमी विक्षोभ की आवृत्ति आमतौर पर नवंबर के तीसरे सप्ताह तक तीव्र हो जाती है और दिसंबर और जनवरी में इसकी तीव्रता चरम पर होती है। हमें नवंबर के दूसरे सप्ताह तक पहाड़ियों पर भूस्खलन या हिमस्खलन की किसी भी घटना की उम्मीद नहीं है। इसलिए, नवंबर के पहले पखवाड़े तक पहाड़ी स्थलों की यात्रा करना सुरक्षित है।
The cyclical variations of warming and cooling of the sea surface of eastern and central Pacific Ocean result mysterious El Nino and La Nina. These are the largest climatic fluctuations which have far reaching implications for global climate pattern and weather events. While the reasons for initiation and cessation of ENSO remain precarious but a latest study reveals compelling evidence that human induced climate change has become a dominant trigger of El Nino behaviour in recent decades. Human activities seem to have increasingly overlaid natural factors transforming the perspective of this historical climate variation.
There is a broad consensus on emergence of a ‘strong’ El Nino event with a 75% - 85% chance through Nov – Jan, wherein, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) will exceed or retain an anomaly of +1.5°C. There is a 30% chance of an ‘historically strong’ event paralleling rival episodes of 1997-98 and 2015-16. Irrespective of gauge of the event, strong impacts are witnessed locally, attributable to both, moderate and strong El Nino.
ENSO: As of the end October 2023, El Nino conditions in the central – eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean seem to have plateaued at the level of a moderate El Nino event. Nino 3.4, the principal indicator and firm representative of ONI remain narrowly confined between 1.5°C and 1.6°C, for the last 2 months. The eastern half of the Nino region is quite warmer than the central portion, akin to ‘Canonic El Nino’. A steady pattern has emerged since 28 August 2023.
Trade winds strength has been consistently weaker than average over most of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is in consonance with further warming of the ocean keeping the Nino indices sufficiently above the threshold value, for extended periods.
IOD: Indian Ocean Dipole, sometimes referred to as the Indian Nino is similar to the El Nino, occurring in the relatively smaller area of the Indian Ocean between the Indonesian-Malaysian coastline in the east and the African coast near Somalia in the west. Both are consequential to ocean-atmosphere coupling. However, the longevity of IOD event is much smaller than the average duration of El Nino. Also, the occurrence of consecutive IOD, +VE or -VE, is rare.
There was a clear gradient between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean, that is synonymous with +VE IOD. The IOD index for the week ending 22nd October was +1.79°C, a little drop from the last week value of +1.92°C. The index has been maintaining unusually large value of 1.5°C or more for the last 4 consecutive weeks. Continuation of above threshold value for another 2 weeks will qualify formally as +VE IOD event 2023. This also means, that season 2024, in all probabilities, may witness either neutral or negative IOD.
MJO: The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently weak. There is fair amount of agreement on strengthening in the coming weeks. However, position of the pulse remain ambiguous. While some models suggest its amplification over Western Pacific, the others are inclined for development over the tropical American region. In any case, it remains far away from the area of interest over Indian Seas. No intense convection is expected over equatorial region of Andaman Sea, South Bay of Bengal and Lakshadweep region.
El Nino adverse effect has spilled over beyond southwest monsoon over the Indian Sub-Continent. Tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea followed diverse tracks, sapping the landmass, resulting driest week between 19th- 25thOctober. Earth had its 4th warmest October on record, last year. Europe saw warmest October in 113 years. This year, chaotic climatic fluctuations like ‘super’ El Nino and ‘Great’ IOD may drive yet another feather, of October being the warmest ever on record. Hottest ever September, followed by searing October, may firmly set 2023 to be warmest year on record.
The intensity and frequency of the Western disturbance has reduced significantly. The weather in the Western Himalayas has gone completely dry and wo not foresee any active Western disturbance to approach the Hills of North India for the next one week.
A moderate intensity Western Disturbance is likely to approach The Hills from November 3rd. There may be light to moderate rain and snowfall over the hills. Rain activities may increase over Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Ladakh, Jammu Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh. Isolated light rain and snow may occur over Uttarakhand as well.
The frequency of Western disturbance usually intensifies by the third week of November with peak intensity in December and January. We do not expect any incident of mudslide, landslide, or Avalanche until the second week of November over the hills. Therefore, it is safe to travel to hilly destinations until the first half of November.
The 28th World Cup Instalment will be played between Netherlands and Bangladesh at the Eden Gardens cricket stadium in Kolkata on October 28, which is today. The weather in Kolkata will remain clear and dry on October 28. The match will start at 2 PM.
At the time of the commencement of the match, the temperature may be around 31 degrees and the sky will be clear. We do not expect any weather activity during the match. Weather will become comfortable after sunset as there will be a gradual fall in temperatures. Humidity will be between 45 and 65%.
We do not expect any significant due on the ground or pitch. Light winds from the northwest direction may continue. Weather will become pleasant after 8 p.m. as temperatures may go down to 26 degrees.
The 27th instalment of the ICC World Cup 2023 cricket match will be played between Australia and New Zealand at Dharamsala today, i.e. on October 28. The weather in Dharamshala will be cool and comfortable with bright sunshine.
The match will start around 10.30 AM. The temperature at the time of the match's commencement will be 23 degrees. The sky may remain partly cloudy, but rain is ruled out during the match.
Light winds from the southwest direction will continue. Humidity will be between 30 and 55%. We do not expect dew on the ground. Therefore, there will not be any interruption in the match weatherwise. There is no possibility of any system reaching the Western Himalayas for the next few days which is why the weather will remain dry.
The city of Kolkata has seen some good rains in the month of October. The Alipore observatory has recorded 181 mm of rains against the average of 179.6 mm of rainfall, all thanks to the intense rainfall activities during the first week of the month of October. Dum Dum on the other hand saw 92 mm of rain.
Southwest Monsoon has however withdrawn and significant rains have not been since then. Cyclone Hamoon which formed in the Bay of Bengal and crossed over Bangladesh, did not affect Kolkata particularly and only light showers were seen. The numbers only marginally increased due to these showers.
Now, no significant weather is expected over the city of Kolkata and only slightly warmer afternoons will be seen but evenings and nights will remain pleasantly cool.
The cities of Pune and Nashik will be seeing pleasant weather conditions as they have been for some time. In fact, today morning, Pune recorded the minimum temperature at 14.4 degrees, and Nashik at 15 degrees.
In the coming days, a similar temperature profile is expected wherein the minimums will be seen between 17 and 18 degrees while the maximums will be in the low 30s, which means pleasant weather ahead.
As far as rains are concerned, after the withdrawal, there has hardly been any rain this month. Pune has seen 1.9 mm of rain against the average of 105 mm in October while Nashik saw 6 mm against 68 mm.
Until now, in October, Madhya Maharashtra is 70 percent deficit wherein Pune is largely deficient by 74 percent, and Nashik at 57 percent.
दिल्ली में पिछले कुछ समय से शुष्क मौसम की स्थिति देखी जा रही है। काफी लंबे समय से बारिश नहीं हुई है और अक्टूबर के महीने में राष्ट्रीय राजधानी में केवल 5 मिमी बारिश हुई है, अन्यथा महीना सूखा ही है।
राष्ट्रीय राजधानी में बारिश की संभावना नहीं है लेकिन सुखद दिन आने वाले हैं। न्यूनतम तापमान में गिरावट जारी है, सफदरजंग में आज न्यूनतम तापमान 15.2 डिग्री दर्ज किया गया, जो सामान्य से 2 डिग्री कम है, जबकि लोधी रोड पर 14.8 डिग्री दर्ज किया गया।
इस प्रकार, सुबह के समय धुंध की परत सामान्य हो जाती है जिसके परिणामस्वरूप प्रदूषण का स्तर बढ़ जाता है। इसलिए, ऐसा लग रहा है कि शहर में प्रदूषण का बेहद ख़राब स्तर जारी रहेगा। नवंबर के पहले सप्ताह में पश्चिमी विक्षोभ आएगा लेकिन इसका असर पहाड़ों तक ही रहेगा।
जहां तक अक्टूबर का सवाल है, उत्तर-पश्चिमी दिल्ली को छोड़कर दिल्ली के सभी 9 जिलों में या तो कमी रही है या भारी कमी रही है।
Delhi has been seeing dry weather conditions for quite some time now. It hasn't rained for a very long time and in the month of October, the national capital has seen 5 mm of rain only, otherwise month has remained dry.
There is no rain likely for the national capital but pleasant days are ahead. Minimum temperatures are continuing to settle on the lower side, with Safdarjung recording the minimum today at 15.2 degrees, which is 2 degrees below normal, while Lodhi Road saw 14.8 degrees.
Thus, a layer of mist and haze becomes normal in the morning which results in increased levels of Pollution. Therefore, it looks like very poor levels of Pollution will continue in the city. Western disturbance will arrive in the first week of November but the effect will only remain for the mountains.
As far as October is concerned, the entire 9 districts of Delhi have been either deficit or large deficit except Northwest Delhi. 9 districts.
