As had been expected and reiterated, good rainfall activities were recorded over many parts of South India including Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala. Moderate rains of around 20-30 mm rains were seen. In fact, rains were seen right from Nellore to Kanniyakumari.
During the last 24 hours from 8:30 a.m. on Monday, Kodaikanal recorded 33 mm of rain, Nellore 30 mm, Tondi 29 mm, Valparai 19 mm, Madurai 16 mm, Tirupattur 17 mm.
Northeast Monsoon will remain active and rains will be fairly ok, not very strong but not as dismal as before. Rains will continue to extend along the coastal Andhra Pradesh. Thus, we can expect rains for the next few days over the southern parts.
Northeast monsoon 2023 has been predicted to be normal by the National Weather Service. Seasonal rainfall is forecast to be normal, 88%-112% of long period average (LPA) for the three month long season from October to December. The season, though, has not made a promising start, as all sub divisions of South Peninsula other than Kerala, have performed poorly in October.
Based on data from 1970 to 2020, the LPA of northeast monsoon rainfall for South Peninsular India is 334.13mm. The five sub divisions, put together receive about 30% of the annual rainfall during this season. Northeast monsoon is the life line for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and this meteorological sub division receives about 48% of the annual rainfall during October to December. Individual sub division normal rainfall for the season stands at : Tamil Nadu – 449.6mm, Kerala – 491.6mm, Coastal Andhra Pradesh – 338.1mm, Rayalaseema – 223.3mm, South Interior Karnataka – 204.1mm.
The onset of northeast monsoon can happen anytime between Oct 11 and Oct 27. However, in the recent past, more onset has been observed during 2nd half of October, occasionally spilling over to November. The most delayed onset was on Nov 11 in the year 1915. Northeast monsoon rainfall is largely influenced by global climate parameters such as ENSO, IOD and MJO. While positive IOD favours good monsoon, El Nino does not adversely impact to spoil the seasonal rains.
Month of October closes on a large deficit note. As against the prediction of normal rainfall by National Weather Service ( 85%-115% of LPA), the month has ended with a shortfall of 33% rainfall of long period average. The month recorded a total of 51 mm rainfall against monthly normal of 75.4mm. This is the lowest rainfall of October in the last 5 years. Poor performance is largely attributed to depressed start of northeast monsoon which otherwise had made a timely onset on 21stOctober 2023.
Month of October closes on a large deficit note. As against the prediction of normal rainfall by National Weather Service ( 85%-115% of LPA), the month has ended with a shortfall of 33% rainfall of long period average. The month recorded a total of 51 mm rainfall against monthly normal of 75.4mm. This is the lowest rainfall of October in the last 5 years. Poor performance is largely attributed to depressed start of the northeast monsoon which otherwise had made a timely onset on 21st October, 2023.
The 31st instalment of the World Cup cricket match will be played between Pakistan and Bangladesh at Eden Garden in Kolkata, today, i.e. on October 31st. This will be a day-night match and the match will commence at 2:00 p.m.
The temperature will be around 31 degrees at 2:00 p.m. Light winds from the Northwest direction to continue during the match. The sky will be clear with bright sunshine during the initial period of the match. The weather will become somewhat comfortable after 7:00 p.m. as the temperatures will start dropping.
The humidity level will increase during the second half of the match and there is a chance of mild dew over the pitch and the ground. We do not expect any disturbance otherwise in the match. At match will be completed with full overs.
World Cup 2023 has completed more than half of its journey and the Indian team is standing strong right at the top. As far as weather conditions are concerned, there have been just a few days of bad weather where the match overs or timings have been reduced.
Now, we expect a fair weather week for the World Cup. For the coming week, World Cup games will be held in the cities of Kolkata, Mumbai, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Delhi as well as Bengaluru.
Almost all of these places are expected to witness fair weather conditions with no rains interruption. The only place that might struggle is the city of Bengaluru where a World Cup game between Pakistan and New Zealand is being played on November 4. Rainfall may cause some disruption.
Chennai is expected to see some rain in the next few days but there are no matches scheduled in the city, which is a good thing. Most games are in the central and northern parts which will remain away from intense weather activities.
For the month of October, the city of Chennai has not seen a lot of rain. Moreover, the Nungambakkam Observatory recorded just 108.4 mm of rain, which in other months could be a decent figure but as the normal for October stands at 300 mm, the city has seen around one-third of the rain only.
During the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Sunday, Chennai's Nungambakkam recorded 23 mm of rain. Also, the city is likely to see moderate to heavy rains today.
Tomorrow, the rains will continue but will be on the moderate end. Moreover, for the next week, rains of varied intensity will continue over the capital city of Tamil Nadu. This is because finally, Northeast Monsoon has become active, thus, some good showers are expected over the region.
उत्तर भारत के मैदानी इलाके जिनमें मुख्य रूप से पंजाब, हरियाणा, राजस्थान, पश्चिम उत्तर प्रदेश और दिल्ली शामिल हैं, इस सप्ताह के दौरान सुखद मौसम की स्थिति की ओर बढ़ रहे हैं। पारे के स्तर में किसी बड़े उतार-चढ़ाव की उम्मीद नहीं है। देर शाम, रात और सुबह के समय हवा में हल्की ठंडक और ठिठुरन रहने की संभावना है। दिन सुखद रूप से गर्म रहने की उम्मीद है। कुल मिलाकर, मौसम की स्थिति आरामदायक सीमा के भीतर रहेगी।
अक्टूबर माह के दौरान नॉर्थवेस्ट इंडियन ने संतोषजनक प्रदर्शन किया है। इस क्षेत्र में 01 अक्टूबर से 30 अक्टूबर के बीच 46% अधिक मार्जिन के साथ अधिशेष वर्षा दर्ज की गई है। सौजन्य से, दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून की देर से वापसी, जिसके बाद 13 से 17 अक्टूबर के बीच मध्यम बारिश का लंबा दौर चला, एकमात्र अतिरिक्त क्षेत्र में सामान्य 21.4 मिमी के मुकाबले 31.2 मिमी बारिश दर्ज की गई, जिसमें पहाड़ और मैदान भी शामिल हैं। हालाँकि, मैदानी इलाकों में एक ब्रेक लिया जा रहा है और पूरे सप्ताह, संभवतः इससे भी आगे तक, अच्छा और आरामदायक मौसम रहेगा।
एक पश्चिमी विक्षोभ 01 नवंबर की रात को आने और अगले 48 घंटों तक रहने की संभावना है। यह एक हल्की मौसम प्रणाली है, जो ज्यादातर पहाड़ियों तक ही सीमित है, जिसके परिणामस्वरूप पहाड़ी राज्यों में हल्की वर्षा होती है। 02 और 03 नवंबर को पंजाब के तलहटी इलाकों में आसमान में बादल छाए रहने और हल्की बारिश की संभावना का अनुमान है। शेष क्षेत्र ठंडा और शुष्क रहेगा। न्यूनतम तापमान बिना किसी बड़े उतार-चढ़ाव के मध्य और उच्च टीन्स में बना रहेगा। दिन का तापमान 30-31°C के आसपास रहने की संभावना है। हरियाणा के सुदूर पश्चिमी हिस्से जैसे हिसार, नारनौल और सिरसा 30 के दशक के मध्य में बसने के लिए बाकी हिस्सों की तुलना में अधिक छायादार हो सकते हैं। सुबह के समय धुंध, दृश्यता में कमी और हवा की गुणवत्ता में गिरावट, एक नियमित विशेषता होगी जिसमें तत्काल राहत नहीं मिलेगी।
Plains of North India largely comprising Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and Delhi are heading for pleasant weather conditions during this week. No major fluctuations are expected in the mercury levels. Slight chill and nip in the air is likely during late evening, night and early morning. Days are expected to be pleasantly warm. Overall, weather conditions will remain within the comfort range.
Northwest Indian has performed satisfactorily during the month of October. The region has recorded surplus rainfall, with excess margin of 46%, between 01stOctober and 30thOctober. Courtesy, late withdrawal of southwest monsoon, followed by prolonged wet spell of moderate rains between 13th and 17th October, the only excess region has measured 31.2mm of rainfall against normal of 21.4mm, all inclusive of mountains and plains. However, the plains are going to take a break and observe decent and cosy weather condition for the week, possibly extending even beyond.
A western disturbance is likely to arrive on 01st Nov night and stay for the subsequent 48 hours. It is a mild weather system, mostly confined to the hills, resulting light rainfall across the hilly states. Cloudy sky with an outside chance of light rainfall is predicted for the foothills of Punjab, on 02nd and 03rdNov. Rest of the region will stay cool and dry. The minimum temperatures will remain in mid and high teen without major fluctuations. The day temperatures are likely to hover around 30-31°C. Far western parts of Haryana like Hisar, Narnaul and Sirsa may be shade higher than the rest to settle down in mid 30’s. Mist and haze in the morning hours, reducing visibility and plunging air quality, will be a regular feature with no immediate respite.
Northeast Monsoon set in on October 21 with a very soft start. Since then, the region has been generally quiet and rainfall activity remained mostly absent.
Yesterday, for the first time this season, rainfall activity picked up pace and some intense activities were observed but they remained confined to Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Rainfall also touched coastal parts of Karnataka but the region does not come under one of the subdivisions for the Northeast Monsoon.
Today and tomorrow, we can expect good rains mostly moderate showers in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. However, rains over Coastal Tamil Nadu might be a little heavier.
We can expect a short break around November 1, however, that breather will be really small as rains will pick up once again on November 2. We do not expect any flooding or intense rains during that time. However, the rain spread will be good and South Interior Karnataka might see some showers as well, November 2 onward.
The month of November has a record of hosting maximum tropical storms during the post monsoon season. The Bay of Bengal is a preferred basin to churn out more number of cyclones than the Arabian Sea. October has already witnessed two storms, Tej and Hamoon, one each over the Indian Seas. Both these storms spared the Indian coastline and headed for Yemen and Bangladesh respectively.
In the last 10 years, from 2013 to 2022, Bay of Bengal has stirred 18 tropical storms, as against 10 in the Arabian Sea, during post monsoon season. Precariously, last 2 years, no storm formed in the month of November over the Indian Seas. As such, 2021 & 2022 put together hosted just 5 storms during the post monsoon but Bay of Bengal claimed a much bigger share of 4 and Arabian Sea, mere 1 storm, in October 2021.
During last 10 years, Bay of Bengal has generated 7 storms in November and Arabian Sea lagging behind with only 4 tropical cyclones. Frequency of storms in the Arabian Sea drops sharply in December as compared to Bay of Bengal. It has hosted only one storm ‘Pawan’ in December 2019, and that too was far from the Indian coast in the western parts of the Arabian Sea. There were two hasty storms, Gulab and Vardah, which traversed across both the oceans in 2021 and 2016 respectively.
Northeast monsoon has remained rather mild since its onset on 21stOctober. The activity has picked up in the past 24hr and likely to continue for the next few days. However, there is no major perturbation embedded in the seasonal northeasterly stream moving across southern parts of Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Accordingly, there is no storm likely to come up during first half of November. Climatological probability remains high for development of such weather system during 2nd half of November, and more so over Bay of Bengal.
The 30th instalment of the World Cup Cricket match will be played between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan in Pune, today, i.e. on October 30. The match will start at 2:00 p.m. The temperature of Pune at the time of the commencement of the match at 2:00 p.m. will be around 33 degrees.
The sky will remain almost clear with bright sunshine. Sri Lanka has already won the last two matches. Sri Lanka will try hard to win this match to keep their semi-final hope alive. The weather will remain a little warm during the first half of the match but the second half of the match will be played in comfortable weather conditions.
The temperature will be below 30 degrees after 6:00 p.m. Humidity level will also remain on the lower side between 35 and 55%. We do not expect dew over the pitch or the ground. The match should be completed with full overs as we do not expect any disturbance weatherwise.
पिछले सप्ताह के दौरान दिल्ली और एनसीआर में वायु प्रदूषण काफी बढ़ गया है। दिल्ली और आसपास के इलाकों का वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक बेहद खराब श्रेणी में है. नेहरू नगर, जहांगीरपुरी, बवाना, मुंडका और सुल्तानपुर कुछ ऐसे इलाके हैं जहां वायु प्रदूषण बहुत अधिक है। प्रदूषण के स्तर में अचानक वृद्धि का मुख्य कारण न्यूनतम तापमान में गिरावट के साथ-साथ शांत और बहुत हल्की हवाओं को माना जा सकता है। उत्तर पश्चिम भारत में हवाएँ अधिकतर शांत रहती हैं।
कम तापमान और हल्की हवाओं के कारण आमतौर पर सुबह के समय धुंध और धुंध छा जाती है। और धूल और धुएं के कणों सहित प्रदूषक तत्व धुंध और धुंध में उपलब्ध जलवाष्प पर जमा हो जाते हैं। मध्यम या तेज़ हवाओं की अनुपस्थिति में, प्रदूषक फैल नहीं पाते हैं और लंबे समय तक पृथ्वी की सतह के पास निलंबित रहते हैं। यही कारण है कि वायु गुणवत्ता सूचकांक बेहद खराब श्रेणी में है।
हमें आने वाले दिनों में AQI में कोई महत्वपूर्ण सुधार होने की उम्मीद नहीं है क्योंकि प्रदूषक तत्व फैलने में सक्षम नहीं हैं और अधिक से अधिक स्थानीय प्रदूषण बढ़ रहा है, हमें उम्मीद है कि AQI अगले 2 से 3 दिनों में गंभीर हो सकता है।
यह सलाह दी जाती है कि सुबह और शाम के समय गहन बाहरी गतिविधियाँ न करें। लंबे समय तक या भारी परिश्रम से बचें। जॉगिंग के बजाय थोड़ी देर टहलें और अधिक ब्रेक लें। यदि कमरे में खिड़कियाँ हैं तो उन्हें बंद कर दें।
