दक्षिण भारतीय क्षेत्र में कुछ भारी वर्षा देखी गई है और कई हिस्सों में 50 मिमी से अधिक बारिश दर्ज की गई है। इसके अलावा, मंगलवार सुबह 8:30 बजे से पिछले 24 घंटों में कराईकल में 78 मिमी, कोझिकोड में 86 मिमी, कोयंबटूर में 61 मिमी, कन्नूर में 59 मिमी, इरोड में 24 मिमी, कुन्नूर में 23 मिमी बारिश दर्ज की गई।
इन वर्षा गतिविधियों की दो वजह हैं, एक चक्रवाती हवाओं का क्षेत्र जो मन्नार की खाड़ी से सटे बंगाल की दक्षिण-पश्चिम खाड़ी के ऊपर है। और दूसरा, तमिलनाडु और आंध्र प्रदेश तट पर एक ट्रफ रेखा। ये दोनों सिस्टम इस क्षेत्र में कुछ समय तक बनी रहेंगी।
इसलिए, अगले 4 से 5 दिनों तक केरल, तमिलनाडु, दक्षिण आंतरिक कर्नाटक के कुछ हिस्सों के साथ-साथ तटीय आंध्र प्रदेश में मध्यम से भारी वर्षा गतिविधि जारी रहने की उम्मीद है। हालाँकि, इन भारी वर्षा की गतिविधियों का अभी भी मौसम की स्थिति से कोई लेना-देना नहीं है।
The South Indian region has seen some heavy rainfall activity with many parts recording over 50 mm of rains. Moreover, in the last 24 hours from 8:30 am on Tuesday, Karaikal recorded a good 78 m, Kozhikode 86 mm, Coimbatore 61 mm, Cannur 59 mm, Erode 24 mm, Coonoor 23 mm.
These rainfall activities are attributed to a cyclonic circulation which is over the south-west Bay of Bengal adjoining Gulf of Mannar. A trough is also extending along Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast. Both these features will be persisting for sometime over the region.
Therefore, moderate to heavy rainfall activity is expected to continue over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, parts of south interior Karnataka as well as coastal Andhra Pradesh for the next 4 to 5 days. However these heavy rainfall activities will still not amount to any has it is weather conditions.
Southwest Monsoon 2023 irrefutably ended ‘below normal’. Four month long season, from June to September, recorded 94% rainfall of long period average. National Weather Service has unambiguously defined categorization of monsoon rainfall as Excess, Above Normal, Normal, Below Normal and Drought. Seasonal rainfall between 90% and 95% of long period average ( 868.6 mm) is categorized as ‘below normal’, without any further concessions. All weather agencies, including Skymet, have been diligently following these standards. Any compromise with these grades is considered, nothing short of blatant violation and misinterpretation of scientific data.
Off late, there has been fractured information appearing in the print media, that this was the eighth year in a row that monsoon rainfall in India was in the normal range. It was not so. In the last 8 years, since 2016, southwest monsoon rainfall was ‘normal’ ( 2016, 2021), ‘above normal’( 2019,2020, 2022) and ‘below normal’(2017, 2018, 2023). The obfuscated prefix and suffix like, ‘technically normal’ or ‘broadly normal’ are exactly forbidden in the scientific parlour.
United states national weather agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) affirmed that a fifth of India is undergoing drought. Drought conditions were confirmed over northern, eastern and coastal southwestern parts of India on the ‘India Drought Monitor’. District level rainfall has been highly erratic. Kerala, one of the rainiest state, observed scanty rains and finished with a large deficit of 34% rainfall.
Long Period Average (LPA) of seasonal monsoon rainfall has been unjustifiably revised thrice in the last 5 years. The term LPA by itself is getting subsumed by such repeated emendations. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) LPA was 887.5mm till 2018. This was revised to 880.6mm in 2020. Another updation in 2022 reduced the margin of LPA to 868.6mm. Going by the LPA of 2018, the latest southwest monsoon 2023 would have had the scare of an imminent drought.
A poorer than normal monsoon was pre-empted this season. It its foreshadow, released on January 04, 2023, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2023 to be sub-par. This prediction was retained while releasing the comprehensive monsoon forecast on April 10, 2023. Skymet announced the upcoming monsoon to be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% of the long period average. This was a precision forecast unmatched by any other forecasting agency at the national level. Let us observe precepts and refrain from diluting statute.
The 33rd instalment of the ICC World Cup 2023 will be played between India and Sri Lanka at Mumbai's Wankhede cricket stadium on November 2nd, i.e. today. The match will start at 2:00 p.m.
The temperature at the time of commencement of the match will be around 35 degrees. The sky will be almost clear. This means that the initial 2 to 3 hours will be hot and uneasy. Temperatures will start dropping after 7:00 p.m. and the weather will be somewhat comfortable.
Humidity level will be between 35 and 65%. We do not expect any significant dew over the pitch or the ground. Winds will blow from the northwest direction and the speed of the winds may be between 12 to 15 kmph. We do not expect any disturbance weather-wise during the match. Will be completed with full overs.
The state of Tamil Nadu, coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh as well as interior Karnataka have been seeing decent rains in the last few days. Moreover, the last 24 hours were pretty decent for this region.
Now also, we expect moderate rains for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Interior Karnataka as well as Tamil Nadu in the coming days. More rains, however, will be witnessed over the coastal parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh as compared to other regions.
We can expect moderate rains with some heavy showers this evening. Rainfall activity of varied intensity is expected to continue over these areas for the next 4-5 days as the Northeast Monsoon surge remains active over these areas.
The northern parts of the country have been witnessing above-normal minimum temperatures, all because of the absence of any weather system in the Western Himalayas. However, there is one region in Central India, where the lowest minimum temperatures are being recorded which is the state of Madhya Pradesh.
Moreover, many parts of the state are seeing minimums around 15 degrees including the cities of Khandwa, Khargone, Bhopal, and Chhindwara.
The weather of Madhya Pradesh is controlled either by the Satpura and Vindhya ranges or by the Western Disturbance in the hills. A fresh Western Disturbance is arriving tonight over the Western Himalayas. After the passage of the system, cold winds will trickle down to the Madhya Pradesh region resulting in a drop of another degree over these areas.
एक ताजा पश्चिमी विक्षोभ, भले ही हल्का हो, आज रात को पश्चिमी हिमालय पर आएगा। इससे पहाड़ों पर पिछले कुछ समय से चल रही साफ मौसम की समस्या को दूर करने में मदद मिलेगी।
यह व्यवस्था अगले दो दिनों तक यथावत रहेगी। यह आज आएगा, हालांकि थोड़ा देर से लेकिन बारिश देना शुरू कर देगा। कल यह रुकेगा और पहाड़ों पर बारिश बढ़ेगी, परसों कम हो जाएगी। इसके बाद पहाड़ों पर मौसम साफ रहने की उम्मीद है।
अब, हालांकि यह सिस्टम निचले और मध्य इलाकों में बारिश देगा, लेकिन ऊंचे इलाकों में अब कुछ बारिश हो सकती है। राज्य के तलहटी इलाकों पर इसका कोई असर दिखने की संभावना नहीं है. उत्तरी मैदानी इलाके भी मौसम से मुक्त रहेंगे।
यह सिस्टम मैदानी इलाकों में हवा के पैटर्न को बदल देगा, जिससे हवाएं धीमी हो जाएंगी। इससे प्रदूषण का स्तर और खराब होगा लेकिन कुछ दिनों तक तापमान में कोई गिरावट देखने को नहीं मिलेगी। लगभग पूरे उत्तर भारत के मैदानी इलाकों में तापमान सामान्य से ऊपर है।
सिस्टम के दूर जाने के बाद तापमान में गिरावट की उम्मीद है। हालाँकि अब तापमान अपने आप कम होने लगते हैं, खासकर जब से हम नवंबर के पहले सप्ताह में प्रवेश कर चुके हैं। सुबह के समय कुछ ठंडी हवा चलती नजर आएगी।
A fresh Western Disturbance, albeit a mild one, should be arriving tonight. This will help break the jinx of clear weather over the mountains that has been going on for quite some time now.
The system will stay put for the next two days. It will arrive today, although slightly late but will begin to give rains. Tomorrow it will stay and increase rains over the hills, reducing the day after tomorrow. Thereafter, clear weather is expected over the hills.
Now, though the system will give rains over the lower and mid reaches, higher reaches may see some now. There is no effect likely to be seen on the foothills of the state. Northern plains will also remain free from weather.
What the system will do to the plains is change the wind pattern, wherein winds will slow down. This will further deteriorate the levels of pollution but for a couple of days, no drop in temperatures will be seen. Temperatures are all above normal in almost the entire North Indian Plains.
A drop in temperatures is expected after the system moves away. As such the seasonal progression goes for dropping these temperatures, particularly since we have entered the first week of November. Some cold air will be seen blowing in the morning hours.
The months of September and October happen to be the rainiest for the city of Bengaluru. For October, Bangalore Rural recorded a deficiency of 58 percent deficiency, while Bangalore Urban had almost 50 percent deficiency. Moreover, South Interior Karnataka is also deficient by 55 percent.
Normal rains for the city stands at 186.4 mm in the month of October but the actual rain recorded was not even 100 mm and the month ended at 96 mm.
As far as rains in November are concerned, the normal rains in the month stand at 64.5 mm, which means the rain amount reduces to less than half as compared to October. We can expect decent rains for Bengaluru in the coming week. Light to moderate rains are expected in the next few days.
The 32nd instalment of the World Cup cricket match between New Zealand and South Africa will be held at the MCA Stadium in Pune, today, i.e. on November 1st. The match will start at 2:00 p.m. Temperature at the time of commencement of the match will be around 32 degrees. The sky will be clear with bright sunshine.
The humidity level will also be less between 32 and 58% during the match. We do not expect dew over the pitch or ground. Light winds from the northeast direction will continue throughout the match.
Weather will become comfortable after 6:00 p.m. Temperatures will be around 22 or 23 degrees post 8:00 p.m. Therefore, we can see that the weather will be a little warm during the first three to four hours and become comfortable thereafter. There will not be any disturbance weather-wise.
राजस्थान राज्य में कुछ शुष्क मौसम की स्थिति देखी जा रही है। पूर्वी और पश्चिमी राजस्थान दोनों में कोई मौसमी गतिविधि होने की उम्मीद नहीं है। मौसम बेहतर हो रहा है.
पहले अक्टूबर में गर्मी रहती थी और तापमान 30 के पार रहता था, जो अब कम हो जाएगा। सबसे पहले, पूर्वी भागों से तापमान कम होना शुरू होगा और जल्द ही, पश्चिमी राजस्थान की सीमा चौकियाँ भी इसका अनुसरण करेंगी। न्यूनतम तापमान 20 के निचले स्तर पर बना रहेगा। इस प्रकार, हम आने वाले दिनों में थोड़ी गर्म दोपहर और सुखद शाम की उम्मीद कर सकते हैं, जिसमें वर्षा की कोई गतिविधि अपेक्षित नहीं है।
जहां तक अक्टूबर महीने में बारिश की बात है तो पश्चिमी राजस्थान और पूर्वी राजस्थान में बारिश के मामले में अंतर रहा। जहां पश्चिमी राजस्थान में 88 प्रतिशत अधिशेष रहा है, वहीं पूर्वी राजस्थान में 90 प्रतिशत की कमी देखी गई है।
The state of Rajasthan has been seeing some dry weather conditions. No weather activities are expected for both East and West Rajasthan. Weather is turning better
Earlier, October heat was there and temperatures were in the high 30s, which will now reduce. First, temperatures will start to reduce from the eastern parts and soon, border posts of West Rajasthan will also follow suit. The Minimums will continue to be in the low 20s. Thus, we can expect slightly warm afternoons and pleasant evenings in the coming days with no rainfall activity expected.
As far as rains in the month of October are concerned, West Rajasthan and East Rajasthan had a contrast in terms of rains. While West Rajasthan has been surplus at 88 percent, East Rajasthan has seen a deficiency of 90 percent.
